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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2856
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba
      #72079 - Mon Aug 28 2006 07:22 PM

11PM Update
Tropical storm warnings now extend on the west coast up to Bonita Beach.

It's expected to make landfall in south or southwest Florida crossing the Keys as a tropical storm.

Some strengthening will occur when Ernesto gets over water (it's still not quite off Cuba yet) but most likely not enough to take it to hurricane strength.




Know of evacuations or closures for schools, business, ports, governments, etc? Let everyone know here

Original Update
Ernesto's center of circulation is still inland in Cuba, but it is nearing the exit point. Still considered a weak tropical storm, it will begin to emerge into a much more favorible area north of Cuba.

Tropical Storm Warnings are up Vero Beach Southward, the hurricane watch from New Smyrna Beach southward also remains up.

Tropical Storm Warnings for the West coast run from Chokoloskee southward. Tropical Storm watches are up from there north to Englewood.



Ernesto is now a disorganized, low-end tropical storm with decreasing land interaction. Ahead of it lies the classic ingredients that make a mean storm (ridging aloft, agua caliente, a good inflow source from the east).

What it does not have is time. The critical question is this... Can Ernesto redevelop the inner core and bomb before it gets to shore? The National Hurricane Center official forecast does not allow for this, and it is likely correct. The chance of it getting re-organized in six hours and then plummeting 50 mb in the next 24 is not very high. The track should be very close to right on, and the GFS and globals that take it more over the peninsula but keep it weaker than it ought to be.

West florida isn't out of the woods in case it remains weaker and sweeps around through the straights or up the peninsula.. and it could miss east, too. Once it crosses florida it will again have another chance to develop.

The rest of the week will continue active as none of the models recurve the storm anymore... all either snag it offshore and push it back, or just run it into the carolinas outright. looks like 2 more landfalls for Ernesto. there's a mix of ways that the models are doing this and it's hard to know which one to buy into until it's visit with Florida is made.. whatever departs will determine whatever shows up down in Charleston, Myrtle Beach.. or maybe up in North Carolina.

More to come tonight as the system progresses.

Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will be doing his live audio show Monday - Wednesday every night as Ernesto approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.

"This Week in the Tropics" with Dave Tolleris from wxrisk.com has an audio show with Jeff Masters (Weather Underground) at 8PM EDT. Mike Watkins will be discussing Ernesto with him.

Event Related Links

Cuban Radar near Ernesto
StormCarib - Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations

Recon Report Map Plot
Guantanamo Bay Radar

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Jacksonville, FL Long Range Radar
Talahassee, FL Long Range Radar Loop

Emergency Management/County info
East Coast Florida Coutny Websites (South to North along the East Coast)
Miami-Date County, FL
Broward County, FL (Ft. Lauderdale)
Palm Beach County, FL
Martin County, FL
St. Lucie County, FL
Indian River County, FL (Vero Beach)
Brevard County, FL
Volusia County, FL (Daytona Beach)
Flagler County, FL
St. Johns County, FL (St. Augustine)
Duval County, FL (Jacksonville)
[Nassau County, FL


West Coast Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL (Naples)
Lee County, FL (Ft. Myers)
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL (St. Petersburg)
Hillsborough County, FL (Tampa)
Paso County, FL
Hernando County, FL
Citrus County, FL
Levy County, FL

Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites

State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Tallahassee

"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh

Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
St. Petersburg Times (Tampabay.com)
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Palm Beach Post
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)

Storm Animation of what a storm passing just north of Tampa would do to Tampa Bay


Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)




Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is usually on the road heading toward the storms to provide reports and video and data from the storms. see some of his live streaming video and audio here

Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real NHC)
Barometer Bob

Reply and let us know of other links.



Ernesto

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
More model runs on Ernesto from Jonathan Vigh's page
Google Map Plot of Ernesto
RAMSDIS storm relative satelliteloop
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of Ernesto


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sara33
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 135
Loc: St. Pete,
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: MikeC]
      #72080 - Mon Aug 28 2006 07:25 PM

So will recon go in as soon as it exits or do they have a set time in which they will be flying? Just curious as to how far away the storm has to be before they are not in their air space?
Thanks,
Christine


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tornado00
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 85
Loc: Maitland, Florida, USA
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba *DELETED* [Re: MikeC]
      #72081 - Mon Aug 28 2006 07:26 PM

Post deleted by HanKFranK

--------------------
Derek Sutherland


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 262
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: tornado00]
      #72087 - Mon Aug 28 2006 07:39 PM

The 20:00 EDT update from the NHC should be out very soon. It will be very interesting to learn if the track has shifted to the left.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008)


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offdalip
Unregistered




Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: tornado00]
      #72089 - Mon Aug 28 2006 07:42 PM

I looked at the 5pm NHC track and it has Ernesto landfall just south of miami
BUT
I just saw Steve Jerve on tampa viper show that the vipr models actually have it
hiting around marco island / ft myers and coasting up the west coast inland finally thru sarasota

Viper hit it during charlie, anybody think it could be accurate this far out ?


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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: offdalip]
      #72091 - Mon Aug 28 2006 07:46 PM

From another thread just a few minutes ago:

I would not be surprised by anything this system does. That being said, the steering winds aloft are westerly, but smaller systems are not as influenced by steering winds as are larger systems, but with the COC looking like it is at 75W23Nor thereabouts, and a strong steering current at 1000-1010 hPa, I would not be a bit surprised to see a slight westerly trend just before landfall in South FL that will change the whole scenario. The convection seems to be wrapping up a bit according to the last IR look. The other thing that makes me think that may be a trend is the deepening of shear winds to the NE of this storm of 20kts. courtesy of an ULL NW of Yucatan,it may attempt to escape-the deepinging NE side being earlier in the forecast period than the NW side. I still think this system has many challenges and am just waiting for the other shoe to drop at 11. I can't believe we are out of "gotchas" yet.

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #72092 - Mon Aug 28 2006 07:47 PM

I found the issue why Ernesto is so confusing by blowing up the image of his central core and getting this:

Jokes aside, I think that when Ernesto finally emerges and is off of the coast for about 10 to 12 hours, it will become better organized and I think the models will get a pretty good lock on its structure allowing a little more certainty on his eventual course. I am not sold that he is going to make it all the way to the SW coast. I think this is an Everglades or SE Florida system. If the trough that is suppose to be digging down slows, maybe the SW coast. For now, I would say the odds are less then 30 %.

--------------------
Jim


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dredlox
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 5
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: offdalip]
      #72093 - Mon Aug 28 2006 07:50 PM

I generally put little faith in local news, but Steve Jerve and Viper are nails. That will be pretty interesting to see if they are correct

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: offdalip]
      #72094 - Mon Aug 28 2006 07:58 PM

Two stations use the VIPIR model: Channel 8 and BN9...and both were showing it coming in around Ft. Myers area. That being said, I have no idea how reliable they are with a tropical system this far away.

One thing I will mention: ALL of the mets that I have listened to tonight are mentioning the more westward shifts in the different model tracks. Unlike 4-6 hours ago, they seem more concerned that this is becoming a trend. If it is, it will show up in the 11pm advisory. They just showed a spaghetti model run, and a lot of them have shifted left.. I will try and find it and post it.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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amonty
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 66
Loc: Clearwater, Fl
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: TampaRand]
      #72095 - Mon Aug 28 2006 07:58 PM

Yep the last frames of the visible show a storm getting it's spin on and convection bursting near the center. I highly doubt it'll make anymore than Cat 1 status. Interesting note the NHC as of the 5pm gives Ernie a 40% chance of Cat 1 status before landfall. I'm gonna keep myself busy till 11 so I don't go nuts watching these loops .

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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: dredlox]
      #72096 - Mon Aug 28 2006 07:58 PM

Ernesto moving WNW now so what does that mean as far as intensity and track for me up in NC?

--------------------
W.D. Duncan


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: dredlox]
      #72098 - Mon Aug 28 2006 07:59 PM

Reading the forecast and discussion at 5pm, and then looking at the model runs on various sites... I have to wonder slightly where the NHC is coming from with their forecast. All of the models generally put landfall on the SW coast, while the NHC forecast puts landfall near Miami. The water vapor loop shows a pattern that, to me, would favor a more westerly track at least in the short term, assuming that Ernesto even survives.

The 5pm discussion mentioned that the circulation had become ill-defined. What would a greatly-reduced system result in in terms of possible future track changes? For example, if Ernesto actually dissipates as a tropical cyclone (loses the LLC), would the remnant still be pulled northward?

Edit to add: I find it a bit disconcerting that we're now in the "short term" wind in terms of potential U.S. landfall, and the computers seem to still have no clue what Ernesto is going to do.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Mon Aug 28 2006 08:01 PM)


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sprghill
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 13
Loc: Lake County, FL 28.54N 81.72W
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: dredlox]
      #72099 - Mon Aug 28 2006 07:59 PM

the new GFDL has shifted more the the west. could this be a trend or a mistake in the model.

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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #72100 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:01 PM

Still way too hard to figure out an intensity and track for North Carolina. Can't even really get it down for Florida yet. Probably will be a few days before it becomes clearer. Hard enough to predict intensity as it is, let alone when there is going to be a lot of land interaction.

--------------------
Jim


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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL 25.77N 80.19W
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: sprghill]
      #72101 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:03 PM

Quote:

the new GFDL has shifted more the the west. could this be a trend or a mistake in the model.




It is most likely the loss of NOAA recon data injection which has been giving it a "more accurate" (I quote because you can basically take models with a grain of salt sometimes) projection of forecasting. Fortunately, I'm sure those flights will be able to resume in a few hours. I wouldn't count those models into your forecasts, as the loss of recon is a huge hit to the track forecast, as well as the intensity.

--------------------
MyHurricane - Forecast models, wind radii, latest watches and warnings and more
Embed MyHurricane on your site | Follow us on Twitter


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JMII
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 161
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: dredlox]
      #72102 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:04 PM

A quick look at the water vapor loop shows Erine just sucked in a big scoop of dry air. He also looks to be hugging the coast. If it's going to gain steam it needs to get way clear of the coastline -and soon. The longer he continues to sputter the better.

I still see an east to west flow over southern FL, thus a SW landfall can't be ruled out completely, somewhere around Shark River area of the Everglades maybe?

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: sprghill]
      #72103 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:06 PM

Quote:

the new GFDL has shifted more the the west. could this be a trend or a mistake in the model.



JMO, but what I posted earlier has some definite credence and I see trend more westerly. I think there may be a window of opportunity for the system. I see some wiggle room for it to the west and we may see some corrections in the next few hours. Still not seeing a major re-intensification, though. The period would be too short and until it encounters shear again to it's NW. I could see a SW'ly entry and cuts across the state, maybe like Central FL, but certainly not as a major event, to slide around the HP in GA currently.

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #72104 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:08 PM

They have a plane in there now, if BN9 is correct. As far as the model shifts, this has been going on all day long. It could be because we haven't had recon, and it could be because they are reacting to other features in the atmosphere.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 318
Loc: Cape Haze Peninsula, SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: MikeC]
      #72105 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:09 PM

Is there not an 8pm graphic now or am I just not seeing it???

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
(my 2009 guess - 14/7/5)
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Ernesto Nearly Exiting Cuba [Re: madmumbler]
      #72106 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:11 PM

They would only issue a new graphic for an intermediate advisory if watches or warnings change. There were no changes, so there will be no new graphic.

--------------------
Jim


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