Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2089
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Update Saturday 10/14/06... Invest 90L is still on the books, Invest 91L was short lived and an area of low pressure in the GOM will probably be a large rain event for some on the Gulf Coast. Tropical development looks unlikely at this time... 9PM 10/14/06... 92L Invest has been put up to make me look stupid  I still don't see much out of this system but we will watch it...
Coop
Update Tuesday 10/9/06... Invest 902006 has formed and although I don't expect it to pose a threat to the US... it may very well be the last disturbance to watch this season....
Coop
10/16/06 0600UTC Shear Tendency
90L
92L
...prior update...
...and nothing much expected to. Tropical wave off Honduras maintains convection, but no real signs of organization. A few active waves along the west of 30W, but most of the activity is south of 10N and under increasing shear.
Strong cutoff upper level low over South Carolina is expected to retrograde to the south southwest and then curl back to the northeast and weaken.
The season has changed, with higher wind shear in the Gulf, the Caribbean Sea, and especially off the southeast coast. In general, the entire basin is not favorable for any development. Not every October has a storm and this October may well fit that category, but we'll check in from time to time just in case there is a late season surprise.
ED
Edited by Storm Cooper (Mon Oct 16 2006 05:34 AM)
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bwind
Unregistered
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In fact, there are no named storms anywhere on this planet! Just four INVESTs in the Pacific Ocean and one in the Indian.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1023
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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It's relatively quiet, to be sure. But, it is October, afterall. Realistically 99e in the east pac could have earned TD status at almost anytime over the past 18 hours, or so. Latest CI & T numbers from SSD were 2.5 and 2.5 (40mph), and QScat was even showing some 60mph vectors, although rain-flagged - cleaner 25-35 mph vectors were plentiful, however. It had a in cue overnight. 90e now has an issued up and is very close. In the west pac 99w looks much improved with recent CI and T both 1.5 from SSD - looks like that could easily be increased to 2 or 2.5 with the next run. wave that HF and others like to follow does seem to be somewhat active, and could refire some things here later this month, I suppose - will have to see if this shear pattern isn't as brutal at that time, but given the history of this season, one could easily argue that if anything it could be even worse, not better. With as much convection as has been bubbling this month, most of it has been only looked impressive because of upper-level diffluence, with next to nothing gelling at the surface. 99l was almost there, but again, par for the season. Best chance for anything to fly under the radar of all this shear might be in the southern Caribbean, which keeps bubbling something up on numerous model runs, too.
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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nothing much is right. there is an eastpac depression, which usually precludes any atlantic development by about a week to ten days, if the -connection is going to play out. there are actually a couple of areas that look somewhat interesting but are under too much shear... i.e., the enhanced wave feature near central america, and the slow-moving but well defined wave near 50w. neither of these has much chance to do anything. the globals do show the vigorous upper low and its surface reflection near the southeast coast drifting out into the atlantic and northeast. unlikely that it can affect a transition.... too much shear. the globals are also showing a sort of pre-frontal wave disturbance in the western gulf later next week, which like everything else should be dealing with too much shear to do anything.
HF 0439z09october
Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Oct 09 2006 09:36 AM)
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 488
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
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Could get interesting in NE later this week. The afternoon discussion from the Taunton MA NWS:
WED NGT AND THU...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY LOW OFF THE SE
CST...WHICH MAY EVOLVE INTO A SUB-TROPICAL LOW AS IT APPROACHES ERN
NEW ENGLAND. MDLS ARE NOW HINTING THAT THIS LOW MAY GET ABSORBED/
PICKED UP IN DVLPG SW FLOW ALNG THE E.CST AS POLAR VORTEX DIVES SE
TWD THE UPR GRTLKS. AND NAM/WRF HAVE HVY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW JUST BRUSHING ERN MA. HWR...12Z UKMET BRINGS FARTHER W
WITH HVY RNFL INTO ERN MA WED NGT AND THU AM. THE TREND HAS BEEN TO
TRACK THE SYSTEM FARTHER W. IN ADDITION...LOW IS SHOWING A WELL
DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ON SATELLITE ATTM AND LOTS OF
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THIS COMBINED WITH ITS
PROXIMITY TO THE GULF STREAM MAY LEAD TO LOW BECOMING SUB-TROPICAL.
NVRTHELESS...WE NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 146
Loc: Miami Florida 25.77N 80.25W
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The wet phase of the has officially made its way into the GOM and the caribbean.Will it spark some late season developement in these areas?? We are just going to have to wait and see what happens.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1023
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Nice graphic. Looks like for now the upper-levels are just too unfriendly just about everywhere, except, perhaps, within the deeply-stacked non-tropical low off the southeast coast referenced above (looking more and more subtropical-ish all the time, IMHO), and also in the southern Caribbean. If we are to see anything purely tropical , I would think that the Caribbean does truly have the best shot for the remainder of the next seven days. Of course, things can change. We're talking *weather* afterall 
Still, if I were to be looking out for *tropical* cyclones to affect the U.S. over the next seven days, I would really be looking to Hawaii right now.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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NHC had this at the 11:30AM; any thoughts?
A tropical wave a couple hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is generating thunderstorms and gusty winds. This activity will spread westward through the Lesser Antilles over the next couple of days...but development of this system...if any...is expected to be slow to occur.
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 488
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
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Gotta believe the strong front sweeping the nation later this week will prevent anything from moving very far west.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 82
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Slow organization, and gradual development seems likely.... but I think the wave would move just quick enough to escape the grasp of the front..... but it`ll be CLOSE. All-in-all, this is a system to watch, and, in my opinion--has the potential to make a westward run.
Weather_Wise911
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SebastianLou
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida
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I do believe we will see our next storm soon, just east of the Islands; this area is looking to be better organized by the hour. Not sure which way any storm that forms will move, but maybe wnw?
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Cat 5orBust
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 90
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The wave is holding together quite nicely and from everything i have read, the wind shear is supposed to be less by the time this enters the eastern caribbean. i am not going to speculate on development just yet but if it does hold together then at the very least it is something interesting to look at. i dont know what the timing is going to be with any fronts coming down, but regardless of development, won't this feature eventually start turning more to the north once it gets into the caribbean?
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La Nimo
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 42
Loc: st. pete beach 31.35N 67.85W
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There no model support and the shear will pick back up in 3 days thik the wave will more to the NW... At this time don't see the wave becoming a TS..
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weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 82
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Satellite presentation is good, and there is little indication of shear increasing to a destructive extent.
Though this probably wont be a terribly strong storm... a tropical storm doesn`t seem at all out of the question.
WW-911
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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I would agree with La Nimo, Don't see this wave doing much, there is going to be a lot of shear in 3 to 6 days.
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weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 82
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..... as I said earlier... its obvious the shear will be increasing, but not to a destructive extent. The increasing shear would do little more than keep it a weak, immature system--if it does happen to organize to a reasonable extent.
WW-911
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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Hey guys, lets not get too hung up on a back and forth debate here. I had posted a few weeks back that I myself saw our season pretty much done but things can still happen and anything is possible, however the window is closing quickly.
Coop
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
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90L is up on the nvy site..
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
This could be an interesting storm... 
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 488
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
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Early models from wunderground...mostly westerly:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=542&tstamp=200610
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Cat 5orBust
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 90
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the investigative area looks like it has a circulation center developing on the visible satellite and at that location it looks to be a bit north of where the early models originated it. the ball of thunderstorms are west of the apparent center though. this will be interesting to watch over the day to see what transforms if anything.
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