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Archives >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 2957
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf
      #76233 - Tue Aug 14 2007 09:55 AM

8:35 AM EDT Aug 2007 Update
Tropical Depression #5 is looking much better organized this morning, recon flights are scheduled to go out and take readings on this system. Those in Texas will want to watch this system.



6:55 AM EDT 15 Aug 2007 Update
Dean is beginning to enter an area with slightly more favorable shear conditions and gradually increasing water temperatures, so the intensity forecast shows it growing in strength, slowly, and steadily throughout the next day or two.



TD#5 is still rather ragged, but starting to become more organized. It still may become a Tropical Storm before landfall in south Texas.

More to come later,

11:45 PM EDT 14 Aug 2007 Update
The disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico has been upgraded to TD#5 this evening. Tropical Storm Watches are now up from Freeport, Texas southward to Rio San Fernando, Mexico. The NHC's intensity forecast takes the system to Tropical Storm intensity by landfall late Thursday. If it becomes a tropical storm, the name would be Erin. Meanwhile, Dean is slowly becoming better organized in the Central Atlantic, now with winds of 50mph. Slow strengthening is forecast for the next day or so before more substantial strengthening as it nears the Lesser Antilles late in the week.

9:45 PM EDT 14 Aug 2007 Update
Tropical Depression #5 has formed in the Gulf of Mexico, the first advisories should begin at 11PM EDT.

Tropical Storm Warnings/Watches are likely at 11PM EDT (10PM CDT) for the southern Texas and northern Mexican coastlines.



8:30 PM EDT 14 Aug 2007 Update
91L in the Gulf still is a bit too disorganized to be called a depression, but may be later tonight. It'll be a rainmaker at least, but it is running out of room to intensify, thankfully, all that much. Recon is flying through it again tonight, so we should know soon.

Dean's models have shifted back west, and the model consensus now is back to being a Caribbean storm, and the NHC agrees. Those in the Leewards need to be prepared for this system.

During the day Dean got torn up a bit by the shear, but the low level circulation center of it remained solid, and poised to restrengthen, even tonight it's firing off a bit. This scatterometer image below indicates how solid the center of circulation is.


3:24 PM EDT 14 Aug 2007 Update
91L doesn't seem to be organized enough yet for the hurricane hunters to issue a center fix, or what is referred to as a Vortex message. Winds are rough 20-25MPH around what could be considered the low level circulation. It will mostly be a judgement call at the NHC to issue advisories for a depression or not at 5PM. It may not be until later tonight.

3:16 PM EDT 14 Aug 2007 Update
Recon is in 90L (The system in the Gulf) right now. We should know more soon.


Original Update
NRL and other agencies have decided to upgrade Tropical Depression 4 to Tropical Storm Dean.
Advisories on Dean will likely begin at 11AM EDT



More to come soon....


StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Tropical Storm Dean (Far Eastern Atlantic) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Dean


stormplotthumb_4.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Dean (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Dean (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Dean

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Dean
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Dean -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Tropical Depression Five Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of TD#5


stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of TD#5 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of TD#5 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of TD#5

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for TD#5
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on TD#5 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Brownsville, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Corpus Cristi, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Houston, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Earlier Updates
8:50 AM EDT 14 Aug 2007 Update
Caribbean disturbance (90L) is still getting its act together and may become a depression later today, recon is going out later today as well.

TD#4 is a bit better looking this morning, and models are trending back west a bit, once again increasing chances that the storm could affect the leeward islands.

Beyond that, still too early to tell, but it would be prudent to watch it.

It is very likely we will see TD#4 become a Tropical Storm late today, but right now Dvorak numbers (Satellite windspeed estimates) do not support a tropical storm.

More to come later.


2:45 AM EDT 14 Aug 2007 Update
Neither system has developed much more since yesterday, although potential for 91L to develop today (the 14th) is still there. TD#4's convection hasn't been around the center of circulation lately, so it's further development is in check. The forecast track has shifted slightly north, reducing the potential impact in the Leeward islands, but the errors are still large.



Beyond the islands, it's still much too early to call. The best case would still be a curve away from land, and it is looking less likely this system will go into the Caribbean now. Still those in the area will want to watch because of the possibility for track errors at that range.

We will continue watching the progress on it.


91 didn't have enough last night to make it into a depression or storm, but it is looking better on satellite in the early morning hours. Chances are still high that it will develop sometime later today. Track thoughts haven't changed much on it either.

1:20 PM EDT Update
A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert has been issued for 91L in the gulf, meaning a depression or Tropical Storm is likely to form there within 24 hours.

11AM EDT Update



Tropical Depression Four advisories are out, the NHC is currently projecting a track through the Leeward Islands as a category 1/2 hurricane later in the week. However, the margin of error is pretty high this far out, but those in those islands should monitor this system accordingly.

Tropical Storm Dean is expected to form from TD#4 later tonight or tomorrow. (This may change to Erin depending on the status of the Gulf System)

Over in Hawaii Hurricane Flossie is projected to move south of the Islands, but a Hurricane Watch is up for the Big Island of Hawaii. More information on Flossie at Central Pacific Hurricane Center and in this thread.



To reiterate as well for the system in the gulf, those along the western coast of the Gulf of Mexico should pay attention to the system developing in the Gulf (91L), it could form into a depression or more later today or early tomorrow.


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also [Re: MikeC]
      #76234 - Tue Aug 14 2007 10:01 AM

Sounds fair enough.. and if i'm not looking at things, I think I am looking at a small hole in that ball of convection. May just be me.. anyways models are in better agreement that this is a Florida or East Coast storm as I predicted when this whole thing started. Of course lots of changes can happen as the days go by and we have about a few days to watch before we worry. So lets see what happens with Dean as the days go by.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 998
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also [Re: allan]
      #76235 - Tue Aug 14 2007 10:13 AM

Dvorak estaimtes are:

2.5 for Dean
1.0 for 91L

2.5 is the cut off for Tropical Storm. This will be part of why Dean was upgraded to a Tropical Storm.

As for 91L, it sure looks to be organizing on satellite. We're at the half point between Dvorak numbers - I wonder if the NHC will upgrade it to TD 05 at 11.

Now to enter the real of real speculation:
Short term models show Dean taking a more northward drift. But the 7-9 day GFS shows it still hitting the US. The question is whether it breaks through the high pressure ridge to it's north and goes fish spinning, or whether that ridge keeps it south and forces it into land.

Almost all the intensity models are bringing Dean to Category 3 within 5 days. Now that the system is a TS, we should have better model outputs starting in 6-12 hours, which will give us better guidance.

--RC


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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also [Re: Random Chaos]
      #76237 - Tue Aug 14 2007 10:21 AM

I really don't expect for NHC to upgrade the Gulf system until NRL has put it as NONAME. Ususally NRL is a good indicator of what the NHC will do next.

Shawn


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also [Re: Random Chaos]
      #76239 - Tue Aug 14 2007 10:47 AM

The system in the Gulf does look better on satellite. Good thing for us. We need rain.

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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also [Re: OUSHAWN]
      #76240 - Tue Aug 14 2007 10:49 AM

i dont think theyre going to upgrade 91L just yet--there is a recon going out to investigate it at about 2pm today, they'll probably see what they find first

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hullphoto
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 1
Loc: Hull Massachusetts,USA
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also [Re: MikeC]
      #76241 - Tue Aug 14 2007 10:52 AM

First posting here folks....As an avid weather observer of New England weather...and former NWS coop observer and skywarn spotter....Its pretty clear that with the extended track outlook and history of Cape verde storms..the East coast will have to watch this closely as we get into this weekend and next week. The GFS seems that it is painting a doomsday scenerio for folks along the east coast...ie to Southern New England,earlier the GFS took Dean into the Gulf of Mexico...Of course there will be there will be alot of model flipping here for the next 7-10 days with Dean and we need to see what transpires with his track and intensity. Will there be a weakness in the ridge of high pressure in the atlantic and advance far enough for Dean to worm his way up the East Coast..who knows...Its gonna get interesting here on the East Coast if the GFS verifies!
Thanks for reading
Craig
hullphoto


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LisaC
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 39
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also [Re: hullphoto]
      #76242 - Tue Aug 14 2007 10:58 AM

The GFS model is very interesting indeed. Obviously without saying everyone needs to have their hurricane plan ready. Ft.Lauderdale Bob mentioned the Herbert's box in the previous thread I guess in the next 4 days we will have a better idea if Dean stays together.

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 998
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also [Re: LisaC]
      #76244 - Tue Aug 14 2007 11:02 AM

August storms that were near (within 400 miles) where TS Dean is now:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_climo.html

Other areas to watch:
Several models are developing a system just off Baja California in the Pacific. Also the wave following Dean some models are showing a chance of development.


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LisaC
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 39
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also [Re: Random Chaos]
      #76245 - Tue Aug 14 2007 11:05 AM

Quote:

August storms that were near (within 400 miles) where TS Dean is now:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_climo.html




That's a great statistical map. Now I hope Dean is gonna follow the fishspinner model and not the Andrew path


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 998
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also [Re: Random Chaos]
      #76246 - Tue Aug 14 2007 11:12 AM

NHC didn't upgrade 91L, but they did say, "...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING."

They are waiting for aircraft reconnaissance.


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 289
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also [Re: Random Chaos]
      #76247 - Tue Aug 14 2007 11:35 AM

Yes, I definitely don't like some of the models that I've seen for Dean. I certainly don't want to go through what we did for Frances and Jeanne again. The models will be ping-ponging around with this storm, but the question will ultimately come down to whether there will be enough ridging in the western Atlantic to turn Dean back on a WNW track after it cuts through the islands or will the projected eastern trough stay through the week next week. The other option is if Dean stays far enuf south of the islands to remain unaffected by any weaknesss in the ridge or trof. I believe he will come toward the Greater Antilles and be in a position north of Hispaniola next week. But the key is, what is the setup to his north mid-week next week? We have a lot of time to watch this situation, but considering its the 2nd week of August I don't like the setup. If this was the second week of September, I would say this would be one for the upper east coast or the fish. Strangely enuf though, there have been numerous cold fronts coming through New England, and one is expected again on Monday. Maybe this can turn him away. We can hope

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 998
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also [Re: Steve H1]
      #76248 - Tue Aug 14 2007 11:50 AM

Agreed.

Looking at the CMC, it is showing Dean eroding the ridge as he powers through it, which doesn't make sense. Powerful hurricanes sometimes do power through, but generally prefer not to. As with most things in physics, things take the path of least energy, and pushing through a ridge is rarely a path of least energy.

The rest of the models keep Dean south of the ridge or right on the edge of the ridge, but don't have him cross the ridge. I think they make more logical sense, but there is no telling exactly how strong the ridge will be until we are closer, nor how strong Dean will be.

As long as the ridge stays intact and there is no ridging west of Dean, he's most likely to keep to the south of the ridge.

The next question is: toward the end of the period, how far west will the ridge extend? Will it allow Dean to swing north into the east coast, or will it keep Dean pushed south into Florida?

It is too far out to know any of this; it is all speculation based on the dynamical models.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also [Re: Random Chaos]
      #76249 - Tue Aug 14 2007 12:33 PM

Model runs change from run to run..never take 1 model and more then 1 model more then 3 days out. After that..its all speculation. 1 run might say east coast..next run will say Yucitan...and eigther or..they are many days out.

Any prediction right now is just guessing as the pattern changes and strengths of ridges..troughs upper lows pressures etc have to be aligned. Right now.. we are not 100% sure if this will hit the Leeward Islands or not..but will have a better idea after tonights 0z runs as it will then be less then 3 days out.

The Gulf system continues to be disorganized.. the recon might find winds over 30kt but right now its a elongated center of 1007mb. I would like to see a better center before I would upgrade this ..but I do feel it will become better organized this evening.


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Hey Hull... [Re: scottsvb]
      #76250 - Tue Aug 14 2007 12:53 PM

12z GFS out to 204 hours (beginning of Day 9) has switched back to a southerly track and appears to be aiming for the Upper Texas Coast.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_204s.gif

This is just one of those storms that the models are having a hard time with the mid and upper levels (see scottsvb's post). We'll know more in a couple of days based on what's out there and where. JMO

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Hey Hull... [Re: Steve]
      #76251 - Tue Aug 14 2007 01:02 PM

I have been looking at a little vortice out in front of Dean @ 11.5N 48w it's been moving due W for days now with Dean always behind it.Dean is still falling below the NHC's forcast points while yet I am sure still in the cone just the S side.The fact that Dean is moving so fast and the clouds are being pushed to the W or even slightly WSW I would think the Southerly track is maybe more likily.If you use the Central Atl VIS sat and impose the forcast points and look out front of Dean you will see what I am looking at.The track is starting to remind me of Ivan in some always to the S of the guidence.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html


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AdvAutoBob
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 35
Loc: Cape Coral, FL 26.63N 81.95W
Re: Dean and model tracks... [Re: javlin]
      #76253 - Tue Aug 14 2007 01:28 PM

FWIW,
I received an email from a friend of mine 3 days ago (he gets them from a family member at NOAA and asked me not to reveal their identity - sorry for the cloak and dagger nonsense), in which the model(s) pointed at a Florida east coast event on or around the 17-18. From the look of it, it was an early GFS run, so I took it with a grain of salt. I'm now watching this storm with interest, even though I'm on the other side of the state (west coast of Florida).

Not trying to sound alarmist, wishcasting, etc.... just telling you what I was told.

--------------------
"Chance favors the prepared mind"


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
91L and recon [Re: AdvAutoBob]
      #76254 - Tue Aug 14 2007 01:44 PM

OK, recon is now enroute to 91L sending back regular HDOBS at the moment. These dont show much as the plane is flying at 25'000 feet, but will descend as it gets nearer. Satellite shows a circulation, but whether it classifies as a TD is open to interpretation, i have seen better looking disturbances not classified, but we'll soon see

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Kissimmee
Unregistered




Re: Hey Hull... [Re: Steve]
      #76255 - Tue Aug 14 2007 01:46 PM

The probability of a hurricane/storm staying on a near westward track from Africa to Texas makes what some of the longer range models are spitting out at this time, suspect at best. As a storm gets stronger they tend to move in a more polar direction. If they stay weak, they tend to move more E-W. Of course throw in a few troughs, ridges, etc into the mix and it's anyones guess,but overall the stronger storms tend to move more polar. So by early next week we should have a better feel for this.

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native
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida 26.31N 80.11W
Re: Dean and model tracks... [Re: AdvAutoBob]
      #76257 - Tue Aug 14 2007 01:54 PM

Quote:

FWIW,
I received an email from a friend of mine 3 days ago (he gets them from a family member at NOAA and asked me not to reveal their identity - sorry for the cloak and dagger nonsense), in which the model(s) pointed at a Florida east coast event on or around the 17-18. From the look of it, it was an early GFS run, so I took it with a grain of salt. I'm now watching this storm with interest, even though I'm on the other side of the state (west coast of Florida).

Not trying to sound alarmist, wishcasting, etc.... just telling you what I was told.




Bob - I am not a moderater here and I rarely post. But, in this instance I felt compelled to post and reply.

Why in the world would you post that here when the information is not only inaccurate but purely speculative as as well. Just because a friend of yours who has an anonymous family member at NOAA who's divulged some info does not mean it needs to be posted here "for our information" especially if it's obviously dated and inaccurate.

I know this sounds harsh but, Bob there are many many people who lurk on this site and take its contents to heart. Some lay person reading your post or worse yet, only reading half your post would be sent off to nearest shelter screaming.

As everyone here has devined, it's still way too far off to do anything but speculate and make sure we stress that in our posts.

Mods - please feel free to flog me for this post.


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