bamffl
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 20
Loc: Tampa, FL
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Maybe it's just my general opinion, but it seems to me that forecasted tracks are getting noticeably better. Are there any graphics around that blend the forecasted tracks with actual tracks?
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You're just jealous because you can't hear the voices...
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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What exactly do you mean, something after the storm that shows its track along with all of the previous forecast tracks? I've seen those before, but I'm not sure if they are available anywhere; they seem to be made for individual storms as needed.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Brian B
Registered User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 7
Loc: Pensacola
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Generally the verification information is more readily after the season is over. It takes a lot of statistical analysis to formulate the track and intensity error for the storms. Speaking of which, Clark, were you able to see the FSSE at all for Dean? How'd it handle the storm?
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FSU Meteorology Grad
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Brian -- the Superensemble is under major lock and key now; no one sees it here. I don't mind not seeing it anyway, for various reasons including the mess last year between the met dept. and research as a whole.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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bamffl
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 20
Loc: Tampa, FL
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I could have sworn that I saw (either 2006 or 2005) an animated graphic that had the forecasted track superimposed on the actual track. You may be right about it just being a custom creation for certain storms, though. I was just wondering if it was a regular product, which I guess it isn't.
As I remember, it was really pretty interesting to watch!
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You're just jealous because you can't hear the voices...
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Something unusual happened with Dean. Due in part, or in full, to his near due west movement.
The plots on the main page were easy to follow. The Extrapolated or XTRP line was close to the actual track prior to the first landfall.
http://image2.flhurricane.com/images/2007/storm4/plot18082007-2041.gif
GFDL did good at the 5 day prediction, but kept flip flopping between the Yucatan and Grand Isle,LA for a few days.
http://image2.flhurricane.com/images/2007/storm4/plot15082007-1402.gif
Here's the plot from the 16th, actually 10PM EDT on the 15th.
http://image2.flhurricane.com/images/2007/storm4/plot16082007-0156.gif
note:all the above links are time sensitive for Storm 04~danielw
Here's a table breakdown of what the various modle performances were.
http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/ops/AL042007/AL042007_perf.html
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