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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas
      #78475 - Sat Sep 15 2007 02:36 PM

11:26 AM EDT 16 Sep Update
Ingrid is still holding on as a depression and the weaker system has allowed to to go further west. This puts the extreme Northeastern Caribbean islands in the cone of error, and means they may have to watch it as well. Because of the slow movement, any track westward that isn't forecast may be cause for concern there. Slower moving storms, especially in this part of the Atlantic, are usually harder to forecast.



The wave in the Central/Eastern Caribbean is looking better too and will likely have to be watched.

In fact, Recon has been scheduled to investigate Ingrid AND the system in the eastern central Caribbean.

8:40 AM EDT 16 Sep Update
Ingrid is still holding as a tropical depressions, still moving relatively slowly (toward the west) at present. It is still expected shortly to move more northwest and away from the islands and out to sea. Shear is being maintained on this system, and will likely keep it weak or fall into an open wave over the next few days. Still no threat to the US mainland.

The wave in the Central Atlantic still may form in the next few days, and the Southwest Caribbean may have a chance to form later in the week, and we may have to watch that if it does.

Original Update
Ingrid has weakened back into a tropical depression and the forecast track for the system keeps it well away from the US mainland. Ingrid will likely stay weak, and may even become an open wave again, but the low level circulation is rugged enough to perhaps come back later after shear subsides. Still, even then, although it may be further west if it stays weaker... it will still likely be out to sea,

Seems easy? it is all said and done? However...

Positive factors for Ingrid include the fact that the upper level low near Ingrid is moving away, which may allow conditions to improve tomorrow. In that case Ingrid would likely intensify and also likely head further north. Since the storm is still very slow moving it's worth watching for a while. This scenario is less likely of the two mentioned.

Other areas to watch include an area in the Central Atlantic (between the Caribbean and Africa) may be one to watch later for development. It's moving westward around 12-15MPH.

Another area, north of the Caribbean is one to watch because of the proximity, but nothing imminent there. Most of the convection there is caused by an upper level low pressure, which rarely fall to the surface, and shear near it is too high to support development right now, but we'll watch it. If it were to develop (not all that likely) it would take quite a while to get going.

Yet another area in the southwestern Caribbean is worth watching as well, but likely won't do much. There is also a disturbance in the Eastern Caribbean.

Lots to watch, but nothing really imminent.
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Ingrid Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Ingrid - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Ingrid


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Ingrid (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Ingrid (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Ingrid

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Ingrid
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Ingrid -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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OrlandoHurricane
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Models Showing Tropical Cyclone Later This Week [Re: MikeC]
      #78476 - Sat Sep 15 2007 03:01 PM Attachment (429 downloads)

Many of the latest forecast models are showing an area of low pressure developing north of Panama and heading north into the Gulf of Mexico later this week.

The GFS is showing a tropical storm hitting Florida just north of Tampa around Saturday.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/model_l.shtml

A strong ridge of high pressure building to the north this week will cause pressures to fall in the Southwest Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf. A tropical wave currently south of Puerto Rico will interact in a few days with the area of low pressure north of Panama to generate a system which may threaten the Gulf coast in several days.

The attachment shows the 12Z Sept 15th runs for the NOGAPS, GFS, and UKMET for the Friday/Saturday timeframe.

Edited by OrlandoHurricane (Sat Sep 15 2007 03:25 PM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Models Showing Tropical Cyclone Later This Week [Re: OrlandoHurricane]
      #78477 - Sat Sep 15 2007 03:15 PM

was just about to say the samething... lol.... this is gaining more and more model support for the NW Caribean in to the GOM... The GFS is now showing a weak ridge off the east coast, which could make this a central GOM-east GOM threat if it were to develope... the models have been showing something for about the last day and a half... this would be late next week. One thing to note... the area the system could move over is where in the last few years we have had strong storms... water is warm, loops current is warm.... needs to be watched...

Like Orland posted... the tropical wave is to the south of Purteo Rico....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-rgb.html

Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Sep 15 2007 03:27 PM)


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cieldumort
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Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas [Re: MikeC]
      #78481 - Sun Sep 16 2007 02:07 AM

Rather agree with much of the above sentiment in the lead. What we may have here is a brief calm before the (next) storm(s). If climatology, this season's performance thus far, and the number of areas we can point out right now that could very well light/light back up, is all any indication, then it is nearly a certainty that more is on the way this month. In addition to those potential warm spots mentioned above, I'm still somewhat interested in the southern Caribbean, and also in the couple of embedded ITCZ perturbations currently bouncing around 8N between 30 and 50 W.

Other than that, some specific observations I know other members and visitors may find interesting

First, while most of the vorticity and certainly virtually all of x-Humberto's moisture has blown out in to the Atlantic with the front that scooped it up and swept it away, "Believe It, Or Not," a teeny-tiny remnant low level circulation leftover has just scooted south-southwest and popped offshore, last I could make out right before eclipse, it was situated maybe 100 miles southeast from the tip of SE La. Shear is moderate, but as we have seen many times, this shear has served to (at least right up to eclipse) fan a flareup right atop the bare LLC.

Prospects? Perhaps first some cons - The shear is currently running a bit high for redevelopment now that this is an entirely marginalized remnant of a remnant low level circulation. There are still all sorts of upper level mowers swirling around the western Atlantic. The jet fuel which helped power Humberto is long, long gone, leaving a bare-bones weak remnant to beg for some fuel and a lit match.

Pro? That little sucker survived this far inland and back again, after all, and in the face of some pretty high shear, and worth repeating -a lot of land-. Also, that little sucker has already seemed to find a little fuel and a lit match. Go figure. Certainly hard to forget Erin & Ivan. I want to say maybe a 5% chance for some kind of respectable regeneration.

> My other observation - Ingrid. Fighting shear like a champ tonight. Also, if anything, that shear has (once again) helped as well as hindered.. hindered any real strengthening, but also fanning ongoing convection. If anything, tonight Ingrid looks far better than she did Saturday afternoon, with deeper convection going up nearly all the way around the coc, albeit lopsided and strongly sheared. No analysis other than to acknowledge her ability to survive within some really rather high shear, thus far, and to (talking to myself) keep in mind the history of tenacious features which have done so in the past.


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flahurricane
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Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas [Re: cieldumort]
      #78482 - Sun Sep 16 2007 02:32 AM

I saw the area in the western Caribbean on models at least 3 days ago. It looks like convection is increasing tonight in that area as well as TD Ingrid. It will be interesting to watch these two areas over the next several days.

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madmumbler
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Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas [Re: flahurricane]
      #78483 - Sun Sep 16 2007 09:45 AM

I was looking at models last night and saw it on at least two. This morning, NBC2 out of Ft. Myers, their morning met talked about the models showing something developing and heading generally towards Florida. That's VERY unusual for them to mention model runs this far out before a storm even develops, so they are taking it pretty seriously too. My husband works for the county and they get Impact Weather updates, and a statement came out from them this morning too about it on his bb.

The best thing for everyone to remember is to keep an eye on the weather and NHC sites. Regardless of what happens, it looks like this week is set up to provide a lot of possibilities for weather events and everyone should stay alert and not just focusing on one area or another.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Bruce
Weather Guru


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Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas [Re: madmumbler]
      #78486 - Sun Sep 16 2007 10:39 AM

Ingrid is looking better today and as of this post is still building convection over the
center, could it become a TS again? With High pressure building to the north why
does the NHC still have Ingrid moving North? I still don't have this movement
thing down yet. Thanks all.


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weathernet
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Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas [Re: MikeC]
      #78487 - Sun Sep 16 2007 10:57 AM

No doubt that the extent of Ingrid's weakened status has itself allowed it to be steered more westward than poleward. Only the Shallow BAM model holds out consideration of a more WNW trek, verses most others ready to steer the system more northward. 6Z UK model ( though only projecting out 48hr ), interestingly also attempts to slide Ingrid more WNW also, and in fact maintains ( or even slightly deepens ) the integrity of the system. Looking at this morning's IR, it seems evident that as the upper trough to the west of Ingrid attempts to pinch off a Caribbean cut-off low, the upper flow rather than racing Eastward, is for now starting to bend more northward in attempt to wrap around this possible cut off. Result?, as evident on this a.m. visible sat., the shear over Ingrid may be lessening just slightly. Big question is how much and for how long.

From here, I will divert from conventional meteorology. Many years show some diversity of storm tracks yet a predominant pattern somehow seems to be evident. Sometimes, a pattern where two predominant tracks take place. No doubt, this year has shown thus far, a bias for westward motion as opposed to those years of so many recurving N. Atlantic "fish spinners". Given the mid level steering of a well organized hurricane, there would seem little doubt that recurvature would seem imminent. The obvious concern is that as low level Easterly steering even becomes weakened, and if Ingrid were able to stave off shear for 48 hours, we could see very slow even erratic motion, but little significant gain in lattitude for a couple of days. Even still, upper level conditions are not likely to improve significantly for couple days thereafter, but in the event of a COL, it would be very errie to have a lingering depression or weak Tropical Storm just north of Hispanola or P.R. 5 or 6 days from now, during such a year of recurring ridging off the Eastern U.S. seaboard.


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HanKFranK
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september, week three [Re: weathernet]
      #78488 - Sun Sep 16 2007 12:17 PM

there isn't much on the map right now, but this could be a blockbuster week for the tropics.
ingrid continues to plod westward in the face of shear. it's redeveloped a good bit of convection today and watches/warnings for the islands, for at least a minimal tropical storm, are probably short in coming. the convection also makes the long-anticipated bend back to the northwest a more immediate likelihood, though according to the models this should have happened more than a day ago. looking at the newer model runs has me progressively more concerned about the long-term action ingrid will take. that upper weakness to its north, long-anticipated as the catch mechanism that will keep ingrid held until a late-week upper trough can grab it, is not living up to its part of the bargain. if ingrid makes it through, strong ridging in the western atlantic will get the storm instead. i don't need to tell you what would happen next. better hope ingrid gets stuck and fumbles around north of puerto rico next week.
that long-advertised region near the bahamas i was mumbling about last week hasn't borne anything as of yet. a quick glance at the region this morning shows nothing of concern, but the general area is still going to hold as a storm-friendly environment for the first half of this week. several of the models still have an inverted trough hanging there much of the week. development would not be a surprise, and it would likely try to cross florida. the caribbean thing has nothing in the way of a closed circulation, and is still just a central caribbean wave (looking better) and a festering zone north of panama. these two features will meet shortly, and the models are still trying to develop something here. NHC has a recon tentatively tasked for this area, so they aren't expecting nothing. the models are here and there on it, but generally see something, run it up into the gulf.
central tropical atlantic has a big area of disturbed weather that seems to be a dogpile of tropical waves more than anything else. several areas of turning over several hundred miles, and they all seem to be playing hot potato with convection. the big/disorganized profile of this thing is really only having one result.. it isn't developing, yet. just moving west. in the open atlantic subtropics there are more upper lows with attendant disturbed weather. those things develop sometimes this year. models have been suggesting one or another might, but there isn't one that a majority are trying to sell.
recap. it's mid-september, a great time of year to be paranoid about a great many places. we've got a tropical depression that looks like it will last a while longer, and may try to buck the system and get west under the ridge, or just give in to the pressure of what most every model says it should do. maybe another system or two in the works. most of these possibles look like threat systems. might be a couple of days, but this week looks to get going, maybe in a big way.
HF 1617z16september

Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Sep 16 2007 12:20 PM)


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CDMOrlando
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Re: Models Showing Tropical Cyclone Later This Week [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78489 - Sun Sep 16 2007 01:52 PM

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
133 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007

THE EARLY PRELIM FCST MAINTAINS YDAYS FINAL FCST THAT EMPHASIZED POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK FEATURE TO TRACK FROM THE NWRN CARIBBEAN INTO THE SERN GULF. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH HOW WELL DEFINED THE SFC REFLECTION WILL BE IN ASSOC WITH THE MID LVL ENERGY FCST TO RETROGRADE FROM THE EXTREME SERN CONUS/ERN GULF OF MEXICO. CURRENT DEPICTION STILL PLAYS ON AN NWWD MOVING DISTURBANCE FROM OFF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST THRU THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NWD TOWARDS THE LA/TX COAST


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Hugh
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Re: Models Showing Tropical Cyclone Later This Week [Re: CDMOrlando]
      #78490 - Sun Sep 16 2007 02:08 PM

Looking at the flow in the Caribbean, I just don't see how anything is going to survive that swift west-to-east wind. The area south of the D.R. appears to be having a go at it, but it's got a way to go before it survives.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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cieldumort
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Re: Models Showing Tropical Cyclone Later This Week [Re: Hugh]
      #78491 - Sun Sep 16 2007 03:38 PM

We've just had two cycles from SSD with Ingrid back up to 3.0/3.0. Up from 2.0/2.5 and 2.0/2.5. Even though Ingrid is taking yet another afternoon beating, again, today, I surmise that if there is one more back-to-back cycle at or above 2.5/2.5 from SSD, this might be all NHC needs to issue tropical storm watches, and maybe warnings, up for the northernmost islands (possibly as early as later today).

The shear over Ingrid remains strong, but as others have noted, the trough largely producing it appears to be attempting to close off. If it does so, this source of detrimental shear may eventually become more of a source for a positive outflow channel/diffluent flow enhancer. Seems to me that Ingrid's upside potential looks as certain as her downside potential. That is to say, I think the odds of Ingrid remaining a mere TD, or washing away altogether, is just as likely as Ingrid maintaining arguably tropical storm intensity, or ramping up.

Other features loom. The wave in the central Atlantic around the ITCZ looks to be attempting to consolidate at and/or near the surface, and light winds have begun turning markedly anti-cyclonic upstairs. Caribbean wave is about to meet up with the preexisting area of disturbed weather and lower pressures that has been hanging around from near Panama through roughly 15N. May be some early synergies in the works there, also as early as later today.

ULL near 33N/35W has made it down to the surface, and is nearly stationary, with decent convection. Not at all out of the realm of possibilities for some slow transition. Already looks an awful lot like a Kona Low (subtropical cyclones, in their own right)


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madmumbler
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Re: september, week three [Re: HanKFranK]
      #78492 - Sun Sep 16 2007 07:14 PM

Quote:

if ingrid makes it through, strong ridging in the western atlantic will get the storm instead. i don't need to tell you what would happen next. better hope ingrid gets stuck and fumbles around north of puerto rico next week.




What exactly are you saying it would do if that happens? Does that mean it would be a FL/SEconus storm?

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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jessiej
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Re: september, week three [Re: madmumbler]
      #78493 - Sun Sep 16 2007 08:29 PM

It looks like Ingrid may be losing the battle. The forward motion seems to have stopped, and a northern motion seems to be happening. Also, there is some serious shear still ahead of it.

--------------------
Katrina 2005
Wilma 2005


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Hugh
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Re: september, week three [Re: jessiej]
      #78494 - Sun Sep 16 2007 08:51 PM

I really do not see how the NHC can justify continuing advisories on Ingrid at this point, let alone much longer.
There has not been any sign of a circulation - at any level - that I can detect all day.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: september, week three [Re: Hugh]
      #78495 - Sun Sep 16 2007 09:07 PM Attachment (385 downloads)

NOAA 43 is out there on Ingrid... actually there flying a unique research path...... Highest flt level wind i saw was 25kts (~28.7mph)...

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Sep 16 2007 09:08 PM)


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Hugh
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Re: september, week three [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78496 - Sun Sep 16 2007 09:15 PM

25kts at flight level? That's like 26mph at the surface, isn't it? Hardly worth issuing advisories on.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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7 Deadly Zins
Verified CFHC User


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Loc: Nashville, TN
Re: september, week three [Re: Hugh]
      #78497 - Sun Sep 16 2007 09:35 PM

Those 25 knot winds are also occuring well to the East of the area of lowest pressure. Nothing above 5 to 15 knots near where the center is/was.
I ran a visible loop from earlier in the afternoon and noticed the low level clouds on the North and Northwest side of the center were not really rotating couterclockwise like you would expect of a tropical storm. This would indicate Ingrid is becoming a tropical wave. Since then, satellite presentation had deteriorated even more.
Shear is winning.

Edited by 7 Deadly Zins (Sun Sep 16 2007 09:36 PM)


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Lee-Delray
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Re: september, week three [Re: 7 Deadly Zins]
      #78500 - Mon Sep 17 2007 10:37 AM

Local Met out of Miami last night was talking about possibly something head this way towards the end of the week. He was thinking more of a rainmaker down here; but left it open. Models don't seem to have anything big here, but CMC (the storm maker) does have something doing a lap through the Gulf.

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Todd Caldwell
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Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas [Re: MikeC]
      #78501 - Mon Sep 17 2007 11:25 AM

I am curious as to the large thunderstorm development off the east coast of north Florida. I zoomed in on the Weather Underground visible satellite feature and a large storm appears to keep re-generating in the same location for the last five hours about 50 miles off Cresent beach and Palm Coast. Is this just the remnents of some spin off from the recent front or could it be the starting of a low level circulation. Thanks for your input.

Zoom into area of disturbance off Cresent beach, Florida


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