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Archives >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2856
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
TD 10 Drifts Inland - Nothing Else of Significance
      #78696 - Thu Sep 20 2007 06:54 AM

11:00 PM EDT Update 21 September 2007
TD 10 drifted inland near Fort Walton Beach earlier this evening - currently in the western Florida Panhandle near 30.6N 87.1W at 22/03Z with minimal convection. NHC has issued its last advisory on this system.

Not much else out there at the moment, however, Africa looks quite active again, so maybe a wave or two in a week or two.
ED

2:00 PM EDT Update 21 September 2007
Sub Tropical Depression 10 has become fully tropical and is now being tracked as Tropical Depression #10. The Tropical Storm Warnings remain the same. It is likely that TD#10 will become Tropical Storm Jerry later this afternoon.

Those in the area near there should expect some rain (although not all too much judged on radar), and some winds, along with the possibility for tornadic activity.


11:00 AM EDT Update 21 September 2007
Subtropical Depression #10 is formed, it's moving to the Northwest at 8mph. It is expected to become a Subtropical Storm later before landfall. Current projections take it into the Mississippi Coastline as a Subtropical or Tropical Storm.

Tropical Storm Warnings are up from Apalachicola in Florida westward to the mouth of the Mississippi river.

This depression should move slowly to the northwest and west northwest over the next couple of days while attaining minimal tropical storm strength.

10:50 AM EDT Update 21 September 2007
93L Has become a Subtropical Depression, advisories to begin at 11 AM EDT.


6:50 AM EDT Update 21 September 2007

The disturbance known as 93L is off the Florida Panhandle and now looks like it may make landfall in the northern Gulf Coast. It may become a tropical or subtropical storm today (at any time according the the Hurricane Center), and if so tropical storm warnings and watches may likely be issued. Areas in the panhandle are already experiencing squally weather, and even some tornadoes spawned in the bands of the system (even ones further away like the one that tore through Eustis in Central Florida last night).



Because of the hybrid nature of this storm, it will be a day of "weird" weather up in the Panhandle.

Outside of an area near Bermuda, there isn't much worth talking about right now. The western Caribbean has a good amount of convection, but nothing organized at all, and conditions there now aren't too good for development. So that system likely will not develop anytime soon if at all, Ingrid remnants are no more, and the Central Atlantic is a bit too hostile for development right now. So for the near term, other than 93L things look good for no development at least the first half of the weekend!

Original Update
The surface low associated with 93L, which moved over central Florida last night, is now in the Gulf, and may have a chance to form over the next day or so in the gulf. The system is looking more potentially subtropical at the moment, as it moves gradually westward.

Conditions are there for some development, but as it is a rather spread out system with little to no convection around the surface low (There is around the upper level low, however). The current setup allows more for subtropical development than purely tropical. However tropical or subtropical development could still happen by the weekend, as the Gulf sometimes can be unpredictable intensity wise. So those in the Central and Western Gulf will want to keep track of any developments.





Right now nothing indicates any rapid intensification, so the Gulf, especially central to western Gulf will want to watch this system to see how much development that may occur. The system is likely to be more a rain maker than anything else. And for that, rain to the north of the system is more likely.

Most of the rain yesterday was in Northern and Central Florida.

The remnant of Ingrid kicked up some yesterday, but still conditions out there are hostile for redevelopment, and its not expected for Ingrid to regenerate.

Outside of these areas there really isn't much going on right now, hopefully that will continue.

Radar Loops
Central Gulf Radar Composite Loop
Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Tallahassee, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Western Florida Panhandle, Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
New Orleans, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
94L (W Caribbean Wave) Event Related Links
AL942007mltsth.gif
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 94L
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 94L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 94L Clark Evans Track Plot of 94L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 94L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 94L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)




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mikethewreck
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 49
Loc: Treasure Coast FL 27.60N 80.41W
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: MikeC]
      #78697 - Thu Sep 20 2007 07:05 AM

The NCEP fronts on the current SSD satellite loops (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html) are showing 3 low pressure areas associated with the frontal boundary. The northernmost low (1009 mb) has a bunch of convection and is presently off South Carolina. Could we get three lows out of the mess that was 93L?

--------------------
Earliest memory Hurricane Cleo!
Went under Hurricane Gloria!


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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: mikethewreck]
      #78698 - Thu Sep 20 2007 08:20 AM

I'm just curious to know what will happen when the models finally get a clue as to what is actually happening and start initializing correctly on the ULL that is working down to the surface. They are still initializing on what was...or still is I guess...93L but that is being absorbed by the transitioning ULL so the models are junk right now. I guess maybe once the Recon can finally get out there maybe...just maybe...things will become clearer and the focus will shift to the ULL and that data can start filtering into the models correctly.

Shawn


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 488
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: OUSHAWN]
      #78699 - Thu Sep 20 2007 09:03 AM

I think there's a possibility that Igrid's remains may get caught up in the pattern over FL:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 810
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: OUSHAWN]
      #78700 - Thu Sep 20 2007 09:06 AM

Radar would put the location of the low, which is broad, in the GOM adjacent to Ft. Myers. Visible imagery would suggest somewhat SW of there. Earlier today I heard a report that the mid-level had entered the Gulf adjacent to Tampa. The key I guess will be if that mid-level can rotate over the other feature. There was (is ) plenty of thunderstorms along the SW Florida coast and lightening was active this a.m. which usually means intensification, or in this instance maturation.

--------------------
doug


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 237
Loc: Sinajana, Guam 13.46N 144.74E
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: OUSHAWN]
      #78704 - Thu Sep 20 2007 10:30 AM

Here is an excerpt from the 8:00 AM TWO (which I'm sure most of you have read). They obviously still feel something will develop from 93L (low level) which supports model initialization.

THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN
GULF MEXICO. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THIS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
FAVORABLE FOR A SUBTROPICAL OR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER
TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
LATER TODAY.

ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRES AREA

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: craigm]
      #78705 - Thu Sep 20 2007 10:39 AM

Hmmm...Well, looking at the morning visibles, the central Florida Low was basically absorbed into the main circulation of the SE Gulf and dissappeared before daybreak. However, the large and overall rotation that was noted last night over the SE Gulf off of SW Florida continues to persist. With some smaller vorticies embedded and rotating the main gyre. This is the overall circulation pattern (SE Gulf) that cancelled out the central Florida Low, but is probably the area to watch.

While the NHC 8:00 Discussion is a guide, it was likely written around 5:00AM under the NHC Product Timelines that I have come to understand. So at the timeof drafting, the Central Florida Low was probably still around. Since that time, I the focus has been shifting to the overall low pressure area in the SE GOMex.


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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: dem05]
      #78706 - Thu Sep 20 2007 11:05 AM

000
FXUS64 KLCH 201440
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
940 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

.UPDATE...A LIGHT AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA
TODAY AS THE REGION UNDERGOES GRADUAL CHANGE FROM ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ABOUT THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH TEXAS TO A
DRY CYCLONIC BUT SUBSIDENT FLOW WITHIN THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF
WHAT HAS BECOME A BROAD AND NOW TROPICAL LOW WEST OF TAMPA. A
CHECK OF H5 TEMPS REVEALS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WARM CORE IN A
BETTER VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM.

WILL UPDATE THE BENIGN HWO IF AND WHEN TPC DECIDES THAT THIS
SYSTEM HAS CLOSED OFF INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AN UPDATED ZONE
PACKAGE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY TO REFLECT RUC GUIDANCE WHICH HAS STEADY
NORTHEAST WINDS AND MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO 90.



This is very interesting updated info...looks like things are about to get going...

Shawn


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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida 25.77N 80.25W
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: OUSHAWN]
      #78707 - Thu Sep 20 2007 11:35 AM

ABNT20 KNHC 201510
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS
FORMED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS NON-TROPICAL SYSTEM
REMAINS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY OR
TOMORROW AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. ALL INTERESTS
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


Looks like the NHC is thinking sub-tropical which to honest makes perfect since.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1093
Loc: fl
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Hurricane29]
      #78708 - Thu Sep 20 2007 12:06 PM

I still just dont see this storm being a tropical storm.....subtropical...probably...but the upper low that will die out with still have some lingering affects in the mid-levels...GFS 300mb maps continue to show no ridging over the area. A strong anti-cyclone in the upper levels will dominate over the eastern 1/3 of the country and off the east coast...taking anything wnw towards the Panhandle-LA. Current data and models are showing a subtropical system between 1006-1009mb coming onshore in that region....due to the warm ocean content of 84-86dg...I would think it might drop as low as 1003mb before landfall and winds 45-50mph.. but still not having that right mid-upperlevel conditions will hamper this from becoming a strong TS or weak hurricane.

On a side note for true tropical activity my area of concern that I mentioned a few days back in the western carribean is coming on. Pressures are around 1010mb just east of Nicaragua... GFS is picking up on the small low and making this a TS in the central gulf and following 93L above. This will be more tropical as the mid-upperlevels will be somewhat conducive....but once it enters the gulf...some shear from our subtropical storm over LA might hamper this some also. Still this system has the best chance of becoming a true tropical system over the next 2-3days.


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metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 92
Loc: NC 36.34N 77.73W
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: scottsvb]
      #78709 - Thu Sep 20 2007 12:18 PM

western carribean cloud mass certainly looks more impressive at this point then what is going on in southeast GOM. However, even though enviroment certainly not the best for tropical cyclone dev. in GOM would not dare to guess on any intensity (if anything forms), don't forget what Humberto did. To repeat probably the best quote of the year (weather wise) "2007, the season without reason".

--------------------
Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
Hurricane Season 2010: 15/8/4


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1093
Loc: fl
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: metwannabe]
      #78711 - Thu Sep 20 2007 01:15 PM

Well Humberto Surprised almost everyone in the MET dept. Reasons it got strong was "probably" the warm waters combined with it moving in tandem with the midlevel flow and finally pressure gradient between the system and landmass interaction....caused it to tighten up.

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: scottsvb]
      #78712 - Thu Sep 20 2007 01:31 PM

two things... one with Humberto... i am going over some of the level II Nexrad data... interesting... and i saw this that night... there were, what appears to me... about 4-6 thunderstorms that blew up on the right side, maybe like inside the eyewall that reached well over 50k feet.... and with the water temps there close to the coast being warm... it was able to keep its eye closed which now i am seeing better in the radar data.

93L in the EGOM.... i still don't think there is an exact location of the low.. i think its more broad right now... but i do expect this afternoon into tonight... storms will finally get going... since the ULL has worked it way down to the surface... of course i think it will take about 24hrs and some for it to become purely tropical... will post forecast over in forecast lounge this afternoon... inline with thinking still a central GOM landfall

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satloop.master.pl?Florida

**also i am noticing with this cool wind we have here over the panahandle... if you look offshore in the above link... alot of of low clouds have blown up...** (i know there is a term for this... warm water..cool air blown over.. i know its looks like Stratocumulus... but i think there is a term for it)

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Sep 20 2007 01:38 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: MikeC]
      #78714 - Thu Sep 20 2007 01:46 PM

Recon

Also recon is in the GOM... should be there soon! Good old recon AF306!
At 17:40:30Z (last observation), the observation was 118 miles (189 km) to the SSE (158°) from Gulfport, MS. There at about 20k ft above the GOM and already have flight level winds From 19° at 43 knots (From the NNE at ~ 49.4 mph)... thanks to that Upper level low.. Interesting that the SFMR is showing TS force winds below... 35.0 knots (~ 40.2 mph) Tropical Storm

**also take a look at this buoy.. looked like the low/vortice passed right over? see winds and pressure... and look at the 9:59 am obs.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42023

Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Sep 20 2007 01:50 PM)


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ElizabethH
Meteorologist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 56
Loc: Bay County
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: scottsvb]
      #78715 - Thu Sep 20 2007 02:00 PM

Hello rain, it's been a long time since we've seen this! I think we aren't looking at major development at all. Until this thing gets a Low at the surface, we have nothing to worry about. By the time it gets closer the coast, we could see a depression, but it's just some wind and rain to watch over this weekend while FSU is off

Models do forecast a closed low to develop by tomorrow bringing this thing in anywhere from Mobile to New Orleans. The NAM shows about an inch or so of rain along the panhandle coast and that's it. Could be some concerns of flooding in areas that didn't see much rain this summer. We shall see


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78716 - Thu Sep 20 2007 02:07 PM

Recon flight level winds there for about 20 mins avgerage (1740-1800). around 50mph around 19k ft... there were At 18:00:30Z (last observation), the observation was 163 miles (262 km) to the SSW (201°) from Panama City, FL. and the winds are coming down some now... surface winds are in the upper 20's.... flight level temp is about 20F.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Sep 20 2007 02:09 PM)


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srquirrely
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 29
Loc: SARASOTA 27.27N 82.53W
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: ElizabethH]
      #78717 - Thu Sep 20 2007 02:11 PM

Could be my wishful ol' eyes, but it looks to me like a closed low now, around 26.7 / 84.0 ?
Anybody else see it ? (quick before it disappears...)


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 810
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: srquirrely]
      #78718 - Thu Sep 20 2007 02:20 PM

Hard to say where it is...base refledtivity radar out of Tampa is making a nice signature for a low center near Clearwater...but it is hard to find any real definite closed circulation in a concentrated area just a large cyclonic tumbling around a generalized area from Tampa to Ft Myers.

--------------------
doug


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: doug]
      #78719 - Thu Sep 20 2007 02:28 PM

Quote:

Hard to say where it is...base refledtivity radar out of Tampa is making a nice signature for a low center near Clearwater...but it is hard to find any real definite closed circulation in a concentrated area just a large cyclonic tumbling around a generalized area from Tampa to Ft Myers.





Concur with you.... large area of Cyclonic turning... i just not seeing well defined low center... although there is two nice areas of convection down there in the EGOM... Looks to me that the ULL is moving to the NNW? maybe off of Tampa, to the west?

Recon update... At 18:30:30Z (last observation), the observation was 146 miles (234 km) to the WSW (237°) from Tampa, FL...SFMR is still showing some winds at around 30mph.. there down at 10k know... they went though that convection.... heading SE

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Sep 20 2007 02:34 PM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1068
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: MikeC]
      #78720 - Thu Sep 20 2007 02:40 PM

I think that the re-issuance of the TCFA (generally being good for 12-24 hours at a time) that was originally hoisted yesterday morning, now makes sense. Yesterday's simply struck me as far too early a call with all the variables up in the air, and especially considering how grudgingly slow ULLs transition into subtropical or tropical cyclones... not to mention how rarely this ever happens, in the first place.

So, today we have a broad surface low, with circulation becoming more and more evident in the area buoy, ship, c-man obs., some mild convection, a few lightning strikes, in the general area of the TCFA. The disturbance is likely going to continue to have a slow go at it while the ULL sits on top of it like this, however. And we're probably not talking about especially cold temps in the mid to upper levels, and as such, thunderstorm development is taking its sweet, sweet time. I mean, we're talking a broad area of surface low pressure with rain showers here.

The recon data will probably be unusually critical in determining if NHC bumps this feature up later today or tonight, otherwise my guess is we will all wait to see what this does through another overnight cycle.. maybe convection actually starts to genuinely deepen. Talking about deepening, pressures have stopped falling, and are even levelling out or rising a bit this afternoon.

The more I look at things this afternoon, the more tempted I am to conclude that a subtropical depression will be declared, or could be declared, already. Will still take a while to become tropical from here, if it does.

Edit to add that pressures have resumed falling now (soon after I posted based on earlier data, of course lol)

Edited by cieldumort (Thu Sep 20 2007 02:57 PM)


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