Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Not too worried about the GOM area... ULL winds are not favorable right now.... I think 97L looks like it could be our first problem child down the road for the SE US... This will need to be watched... give it about 5-8 days until it could pose a problem for the SE... hard to tell if its going to be a GOM or Atlantic side system... well see what the 00Z runs look like tonight.. **recon will be in there at lunch time tomorrow for the 97L**
Also don't think Jerry is going to last much longer... its lots its convection tonight... short lived Jerry!
Recon also schedule for system in GOM if it needs it...
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Sep 24 2007 12:27 AM)
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
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As of this morning, it looks like has dropped 94L from their site.
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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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As of this morning Recon for the GOM system has been cancelled.
Recon is scheduled to fly an INVEST on the system closest to the Lesser Antilles/ Grenada area on Tuesday Morning.
With followup flights scheduled as CYCLONE. That designation would indicate that TPC/NHC expects the sytem to develop.
This morning's tasking requirements-For Tuesday, listed below.
ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN SEA)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 25/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 25/1630Z
D. 15.5N 63.5W
E. 25/1700Z TO 24/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT
A. 26/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 02JJA CYCLONE
C. 26/0500Z
D. 16.5N 65.0W
E. 26/0530Z TO 26/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES. PROBABLE
P-3 FLIGHTS DEPARTING EVERY 12 HRS BEGINNING AT 26/2000Z.
3. REMARKS: TASKING FOR THIS SYSTEM FOR 24/1800Z CANCELED BY
AT 24/1300Z. ALL TASKING FOR A SUSPECT AREA IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO CANCELED AT 24/1100Z.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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94L is still around... in fact it looks about as well organized as it ever has been (at least from what I have seen, though I haven't been following it 24/7), with a pretty well defined low pressure center and convection increasing in the vicinity. It is still in an unfavorable environment, though, with abnormally strong southerly flow aloft.
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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94L IS BACK UP ON SITE!!!
I would think this means something. 94L is putting on quite a show this morning...especially considering it is still under shear. That shear is suppose to continue to decrease and since 94L is not moving too quickly we may still have problems from it.
Shawn
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
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It wasn't up there earlier today when I looked -- it looks like they've reactivated it because of the convection that's popped up in the past few hours.TWC just mentioned it on their 11:50 tropical update.
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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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94L should be upgraded to atleast a TD, If not a TS by the 5pm.... Unless recon gets there sooner.... also i would think the 96L would be upgrade to a TD at the 5pm...
94L really got its act together this morning....there is still some shear
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Invest 94L is doing a splendid job of pulling it together. With the recent experiences of Humberto and other unusually rapidly developing near-shore systems this season, all interests along the western Gulf Coast should be paying very close attention. IMHO, an upgrade to 94L is highly probable later today or tonight.
Some at are already on record calling for the probable upgrade of 94L as early as later this afternoon, and that is not at all hyperbolic. Farther out, 96L is almost "there," and 97L is just about get over that hump which is northeastern South America. Of all three of these systems, 94L has the most imminent threat for tropical cyclogenesis (if it's hasn't done so already), and potentially an even more imminent threat to a portion of the U.S. that does-not-need-more-rain, as it is.
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