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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Noel Over Cuba, Weaker
      #79308 - Mon Oct 29 2007 06:25 PM

Midnight EDT Update 31 October 2007
Noel has started moving more north and is approaching a "wall" of sorts to moving much further west. No Tropical Storm watches have been issued for Florida, and this will likely remain the case.

The current forecast track takes Noel abruptly to the north and east over tomorrow, and things are shaping up for this to be the most likely scenario,

For discussion of other, less likely, scenarios check out this thread here.
What's it like in your area? Let us know here


11AM EDT Update 30 October 2007
Surface reports in Cuba have confirmed that Noel has made its way westward into Cuba. This should keep the system weak, the forecast still calls for a sharp northeastern turn, but because of more land interaction, will likely stay weak or fall apart before it gets to the Bahamas.

No Tropical Storm watches or warnings for Florida have been issued, as the system is still expected to pass to the east of Florida. The pressure gradient will keep the wind brisk for the next few days in Florida, however.



Since the system is still moving west at this hour, it is still possible for Tropical Storm Watches in Southeast Florida. Noel still needs to be watched until the projected turn has been made.

An interesting possibility is that the storm keeps moving west and reenters the Caribbean sea, missing the current kick out to sea. This would keep Noel in the Caribbean for a few days before anything else came along to move it out. This is less likely, but if it continues more westward it becomes more likely.



Original Update
Tropical Storm Noel has moved away from Haiti, and has now entered the Atlantic south of the Bahamas. The forecast track takes it generally Northwest and then Recurving back to the northeast once between the Bahamas and South Florida.

Noel has caused at least 20 reported deaths in Haiti due to mudslides an rain. Parts of Hispaniola received as much as 30 inches of rain.



This may force Tropical Storm Watch for a good chunk of South Florida tomorrow, with the pressure gradient as large as it is, winds will be felt well away from the system, including Central Florida. Which may cause erosion and rough conditions at the beach. But most models suggest the system staying offshore. Many have trended west during the day today.

Slow to modest Strengthening is possible over the next few days, but the official forecast still holds it at no stronger than a Tropical Storm. The way it is set up now, the stronger the system gets, the more likely it will remain away from South Florida.

Due to the proximity to the Bahamas and South Florida, everyone in the cone should be prepared for a Tropical Storm, and perhaps make sure you still have hurricane supplies anyway in case of unexpected further west movement or strengthening.

The most likely scenario right now is that it remains offshore, maybe a few rain bands for south Florida, and gradient driven winds for a good chunk of Florida, some of which may be rough. Be very mindful of this for Halloween night.

Radar Loops
Flhurricane Long Term Noel Radar Approach Recording
Large Florida Composite Radar Loop
Large Miami Radar Loop
Melbourne FL Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Jacksonville FL Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Miami, FL Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Tampa Bay, FL Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Cuban Radar
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Tropical Storm Noel Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Noel


stormplotthumb_16.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Noel (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Noel (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Noel

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Noel
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Noel -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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vineyardsaker
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Re: Noel Northwest of Haiti, Moving Toward Bahamas [Re: MikeC]
      #79310 - Mon Oct 29 2007 06:43 PM

what are the chances of hurricane force winds in East Central Florida by Wednesday?

Edited by danielw (Tue Oct 30 2007 12:45 AM)


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cieldumort
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Posts: 1089
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Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas [Re: MikeC]
      #79311 - Mon Oct 29 2007 06:44 PM

(Post moved from prior thread as this main page lead was going up as I was typing)

Well, models have pulled a bit back to the left. Not at all surprising, as Noel appears to be heading even a touch left of these runs.

It is time for Floridians to begin taking much more note of Noel, and I'll lay out why -

First - Noel has had throughout its history, even well-before ever being officially declared a tropical cyclone, nearly a preponderance of the strongest winds occurring within the fairly tight pressure gradient mostly within his northern semicircle. This is because of the area of high pressure which surrounds Noel to his north, and this is likely to continue to some extent through the next several days, even with the real potential for a front or shortwave to come on down and sweep him away. As such, on Noel's current official forecast, these gradient winds may cause some very strong north-easterlies along the east coast of Florida, regardless of whether or not Noel comes ashore, or very nearly ashore. All should remember that the effects of a tropical cyclone are often felt well in advance and well away from its center of circulation. These winds, and associated dangerous rip currents, could be bugging coastal Florida as early as mid week and even last through the end of the week.

Second - For a couple of days now Noel has continued to tap in to a deep moisture feed, producing copious tropical torrents. While most have occurred to the north, east, and southeast of the center, some have wrapped around from the east and northeast, to affect locations within the northwestern quadrant. Based on the current track it could be easy for some of these very heavy squalls to affect south Florida mid to late week.

Now for the others -

It goes without saying that it is Halloween, and even a Tropical Storm just offshore can cause a significant increase in injuries or worse to unwary party-goers, ghouls and goblins who are not exercising prudent caution in their plans. Without a doubt, extra care should be taken at the beach, and out in the water. Should squalls indeed come inland, driving conditions may quickly go downhill. Additionally, interaction with land can lead to an increase in severe thunderstorm cells, including tornadic supercells. Even without a more widespread wind and rain event, individual squall lines and isolated supercells may wreak havoc on party-goers heading out, or coming back in. Etc.

Considering track -

It is not yet written in stone that the front or short wave is fast enough or south enough to lift Noel off to the northeast before a landfall in SoFlo would become more possible, or even likely. Already a number of us have witnessed the leftward bias since Noel came off the northwest tip of Hispaniola. Furthermore, Noel is moving faster than the models forecast, so it may also outrun the front/shortwave energy, and travel a good bit farther west before recurvature.

In summary, it is probably now prudent to expect something of a wind, rain and rip current event in Florida and along Florida's coast starting about mid week and continuing for a total of one, two, or perhaps even three days. How intense, still a bit unknown. It doesn't take a hurricane to cause a lot of weather woes, perhaps especially around any holiday.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #79312 - Mon Oct 29 2007 06:45 PM

Hurricane Force? Not likely at all. However, there will likely be Tropical storm force winds, mostly from the Cold Front, and not the system. Erosion is very possible.

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nowhammies
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Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas [Re: MikeC]
      #79314 - Mon Oct 29 2007 08:19 PM

Speaking of winds, if the track holds where it is, or tracks slightly west, but stays off-shore, how high of winds could we be looking at in East Central FL (Orange/Osceola county) I know that I am asking a crystal ball type question, but I am trying to figure out how to prepare a very excited 7 yr old for Halloween night (or not ). thank you for any wind estimates that yo may be able to muster.

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cieldumort
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Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas [Re: nowhammies]
      #79315 - Mon Oct 29 2007 08:41 PM

High Wind Watch is now up for southeast Florida. This watch may of course be expanded in time, depending on track, intensity, strength of the High, strength (or lack) of the front/trof, among other variables. In other words, it's too early to tell.

Here is highlight of the High Wind Watch up so far, which should help give you some idea
_if_ it needs to be expanded farther up the coast -

IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM NOEL WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ON A NORTHWEST TRACK. THE LATEST FORECAST ADVISORY FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TRACKS NOEL ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS. EVEN IF NOEL STAYS ON THIS PROJECTED PATH...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COULD RESULT IN
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AFFECTING PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS MAY NOT DIRECTLY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM.

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF
58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS


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ftlaudbob
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Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas [Re: nowhammies]
      #79316 - Mon Oct 29 2007 08:42 PM

Quote:

Speaking of winds, if the track holds where it is, or tracks slightly west, but stays off-shore, how high of winds could we be looking at in East Central FL (Orange/Osceola county) I know that I am asking a crystal ball type question, but I am trying to figure out how to prepare a very excited 7 yr old for Halloween night (or not ). thank you for any wind estimates that yo may be able to muster.




No one can answer that question right now,except to say it will be very windy.We don't know how close it will come to the coast nor do we know if it will be a TS or Hurricane.You will just have to pay attention to the latest forcasts.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas [Re: MikeC]
      #79317 - Mon Oct 29 2007 10:44 PM

Any fellow "weather-heads" have any recent pressure readings from out in the southern or central Bahamas?

As I sit here anticipating the 11:00pm Discussion, and while watching my 135th looping of every different sat. resolution, I am noticing how for the first time this system is wrapping convection farther around the western quadrant than earlier today or yesterday. Is this partially due to lessening shear, perhaps. Also, inflow on Noel's eastern semicircle is being interupted by the very mountaineous Eastern Cuba landscape, thus less moisture and convection collecting perhaps on its eastern side. On the "motion" issue......, well I am certainly not seeing a more northerly component, and if anything a 280-290 degree motion. Hard to say of course given what we have to look at, but my guess is that the current center is smack right under the smaller ball of convection, just north of Cuba. Overall consolodation has been fairly impressive.

While not ready to make any outright prediciton, looking at the way the GFS has been trending, and looking at the 18Z 500mb level winds, I just don't see enough energy droping south to influence a sharp northeast turn, as predicted by nearly all dynamic models. If upcoming mid and upper air were to verify this, than I can see a westward adjustment in about 15 minutes.

Two difficult choices I may have to make by tomm. eve. One, do I put up hurricane shutters tomm. eve., and two....., do I change my Halloween Costume to that of a "Blowin' Tumbleweek" ( perhaps more apprapoe than Elvis ).

(Forecast Lounge type comments were removed.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Oct 29 2007 11:19 PM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
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Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas [Re: weathernet]
      #79320 - Tue Oct 30 2007 12:37 AM

Path will be adjusted back slightly to the west but still no different from the 12Z runs of today showing it getting close to 80W then moving NNE between Fla and Andros Island across Grand Bahama and out to sea. Timing of the trough coming down and the speed of the cyclone will be key if it brushes the keys or extreme Se Florida. As of 11pm adv they have it at 21.2 N and 75W...but as of that time radar out of cuba shows this near 21.2N and 75.5W.. and as of now 21.3N and 75.7W at 0430Z moving WNW at 14-15mph.

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danielwAdministrator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Non Tropical model run [Re: scottsvb]
      #79322 - Tue Oct 30 2007 01:33 AM

The Season with No reason continues...

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1251 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

VALID OCT 30/0000 UTC THRU NOV 02/1200 UTC

MODEL INITIALIZATION...

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR STATUS OF UPPER AIR INGEST...

ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT APPEAR TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THEIR SHORT TERM FORECASTS.


MODEL TRENDS...

...TROPICAL STORM NOEL...
THE NAM IS STILL HAVING DIFFICULTIES RESOLVING THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS TRENDED TO THE RIGHT WITH THE TRACK OF NOEL EARLY IN THE FORECAST... THEN FASTER AND TO THE LEFT ONCE IT RECURVES.

...SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DAYS 2 AND 3...
THE NAM HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE WAVE. THE GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER AND SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE WITH THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL VORTICITY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...

...TROPICAL STORM NOEL...
THE NAM IS STILL HAVING DIFFICULTIES RESOLVING THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS TRACK IS CLOSE TO TPC GUIDANCE THROUGH 12Z/01 THURSDAY... THEN ACCELERATES NOEL ALONG THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK A FULL DAY
FASTER.

...SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DAYS 2 AND 3...
THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER AND LESS ORGANIZED THAN THE NAM WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE SUPPORT OF BOTH THE HIGHLY RESOLVED 12Z/29 ECMWF AND THE 00Z/30 GEM REGIONAL MODELS... WILL RECOMMEND A
SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE NAM WITH THE WAVE.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
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Re: Non Tropical model run [Re: danielw]
      #79323 - Tue Oct 30 2007 01:51 AM

Daniel,

Yeah, I just read the same and thought......."uh oh"....
Things could get real interesting, real quick if recon comes in with any 997's (mb). With sat. and Cuban radar depicting motion seemingly hugging the coastline, do you know how hindered NOAA will be in getting solid obs.??

Shortly after my above submission, just noticed NHC with 2:00am. intermediate showing recon coming in with 999mb. Also, as the 0z models are coming in, am seeing the FSU MM3 similar to the Canadian with a more westward motion or "land tour" of Cuba, before hooking north. Meanwhile in order for GFDL to be on the mark, Noel will have to take an immediate due north turn. Given the appearant West to WNW motion, looks like the GFDL is off the mark. UK, like the GFDL intensifies Noel, but bring him directly over Andros Island, before leaving for greener pastures. Just goes to show how having all the right "initial" components play so differently with any model's outcome.

While leaving my previous "forecast" post accordingly in the Forecast Lounge, I will nonetheless simply state that things may truly become more dicey for us folks here in the Southern Florida area, come morning. Perhaps the Canadian model will have "nailed" it and Noel will take the land tour, thus weakening it substantially? Pinning hope on the Canadian though, may be like us Dolphin fans hoping on winning the next 8 games ( LOL ).

Edited by weathernet (Tue Oct 30 2007 02:18 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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More-not what you wanted to hear [Re: weathernet]
      #79324 - Tue Oct 30 2007 02:41 AM

I just saw the Advisory with the 999mb and 55kts. Those two numbers bother me. Maximum pressure- wind for 999mb is 76mph. So there is some potential for Noel to intensify. About 4 hours until sunrise in that area. Better sat shots and we'll know then if the sun is going to assist in the intensification.
This storm has a tenacious vortex/ center of circulation as evidenced by it's staying together after passing over the island of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. The mountainous terrain on that island usually knocks a great deal of energy out of a tropical system.

Keep an eye on this storm

The other phrase that caught my Attention was:
AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTEREST IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA LATER
TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


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cieldumort
Moderator


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Posts: 1089
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: More-not what you wanted to hear: Hurricane Noel [Re: danielw]
      #79325 - Tue Oct 30 2007 05:02 AM

Somewhat significant changes with the 5AM

5AM from NHC now calling for Noel to become a hurricane Wednesday morning-ish, and prior to pulling away from Florida. However, at this time the official forecast anticipates _no_ winds of sustained hurricane force in Noel's western semicircle:

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 24.5N 78.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 75NW.

And the other change:

CUBAN RADARS INDICATE THAT NOEL HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD OR 280
DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS

Still, the official forecast track begins that sharp recurvature out to sea in about 36 hours, and has Noel quickly undergo ET thereafter.


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dem05
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Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: More-not what you wanted to hear: Hurricane Noel [Re: cieldumort]
      #79326 - Tue Oct 30 2007 06:28 AM

Morning visible satellite images will be interesting. It is tough to tell for sure, but in looking at the RAMSDIS Floater loop, it would appear that Noel may have made landfall, is continuing on a general westward path and is currently crossing the Island Nation of Cuba. These images are always more difficult to make out in the evening, so I think I will wait til sunlight for confirmation...In the mean time, I am sharing the link with ya'll. In taking a look, you may agree. Side note...Noel is looking amight bit sheared this morning. I am growing curious that Noel may split again (Mid/Low level decouple). If so, the models may be picking up and tracking the Mid level vorticity. Today will be a telling and very interesting day.

Link: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/tropical.asp (Click on VIS/IR2 Loop)


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dem05
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Re: More-not what you wanted to hear: Hurricane Noel [Re: dem05]
      #79327 - Tue Oct 30 2007 07:04 AM

The radar images I amseeing are confirming my hunch...Very apparent that Noel has made landfall in Cuba and is probably about 1/3 of the way across. Moving at a pretty good clip too. If the westward progress continues long enough...It looks like we may be tracking Noel in the Carribean again...

Link to the radar loop: http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB.../hlgMAXw01a.gif


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doug
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 832
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: More-not what you wanted to hear: Hurricane Noel [Re: dem05]
      #79328 - Tue Oct 30 2007 08:05 AM

No, I think you are right, and that may not be bad news, it will certainly lower intensities...that could prolong the westward drift for a while and keep it over land that much longer, so the projected intensity of Cat I may not materialize.
On another note the WV confirms what the projected track suggests: the turn zone is not to much further west, even if the system stays to the south a bit longer, it will turn before 80W...all the steering currents are radically to the NE south of Florida, and I don't think this system is strong enough to shove that zone to the west.
Look for the storm to not cross Cuba to the Carribean but bounce back off shore to the north of the island in a few hours on a more NW'ly course, and turn as predicted.

--------------------
doug


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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


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Posts: 134
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL 29.03N 80.93W
There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: dem05]
      #79329 - Tue Oct 30 2007 08:06 AM

Looks like the NHC sees Noel as a Hurricane for tomorrow just before a scheduled (and hoped for) turn to the northeast. Why am a getting nervous?

--------------------
Motto: chown -R linux:GNU *
Distros: Debian, Xubuntu, Mint
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #79330 - Tue Oct 30 2007 08:18 AM

Quote:

Looks like the NHC sees Noel as a Hurricane for tomorrow just before a scheduled (and hoped for) turn to the northeast. Why am a getting nervous?




Yea,me too.The NHC is having a tough time with this one.It keeps moving west,not what the NHC expected.Right now the shear is low and the SST's are high,not good.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 832
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #79331 - Tue Oct 30 2007 09:39 AM

The sat. and radar signatures are really not clear because the system is weak; but, the main vortex may be right on the north coast, and paralleling the coast.
There is enough of a bloom in convection to support the center being over water.
The turn to the NE is imminent, IMO and it will be abrupt and not gradual. I base that on satellite evidence that the upper level winds even over central Cuba are sharply NE'ly.
We'll see.

--------------------
doug


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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 134
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL 29.03N 80.93W
Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #79332 - Tue Oct 30 2007 09:44 AM

I want to ask a very basic "newbie/ignoramus" question here: from the NHC projections I assume that there is some event (cold/dry front?) which is supposed to do two things tomorrow night:

1) weaken Noel back to a TS
2) push it in a Northeastern direction

How confident are the knowledgeable forum members that this will actually occur? How much uncertainty, if any, is there over this? What are the chances of this *not* happening (and, thus a CAT1 heading for Florida)?

--------------------
Motto: chown -R linux:GNU *
Distros: Debian, Xubuntu, Mint
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma


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