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Archives >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Fay East of New Smyrna Beach, Pressure Dropping
      #82448 - Wed Aug 20 2008 08:01 AM

6:39PM EDT Aug 20 Update
Fay is gaining strength again, Recon just reported a minimum central pressure of 993mb, and a rather large "eye-like" feature sitting off the coast of Volusia county, slowly moving toward the north.

Rain is still the big story with Fay, including flooding rains in Melbourne that will be moving north overnight.

Original Update
Tropical Storm Fay weakened overnight, but is now about to enter the Atlantic Ocean, at 8AM it's position was over the Banana river Between Kennedy Space Center and Canaveral Air Force Station, and is moving north back over the open Atlantic now.



There is a window for strengthening before heading back inland somewhere between Daytona Beach and Jacksonville, so Hurricane Watches remain up for the northern Florida coastline. It is expected to slowly move north over the rest of the evening.

The Northern Brevard Coastline (Which is mostly wild refuge), and the coasts of Volusia and Flagler counties will see the worst of it today.

We have a few discussion threads going on Fay, if you would like to discuss Fay's possible impact on Florida, check out here, if you want to let people what you think, or have a gut feeling, or want to shoot the breeze on Fay do that in the Fay forecast Lounge Want to let us know about conditions in your area, any closings, notices, or evacuations, let pass it along in this area. This is done to attempt more order during the flood of information (both good and bad) that will come over the next few days. The main comments are usually for discussion of what the storm is doing now, or will likely be short term.

Elsewhere in the tropics a wave in the central Atlantic (94L) may become a depression in the next few days, but it has become less likely.


Please pay attention to local media and officials in your area as the storm approaches. As of 2PM Fay is still a Tropical Storm. For state information, check out the local NWS advisories on the top of the main page and Floridadisaster.org.

HCW Level 3 Radar Recording of Fay

Mark Sudduth over at HurricaneTrack is out in Southwest Florida now, tracking the storm in his vehicle.[/url]

More to come soon...

General Fay Related Links:

Southwest Florida Webcams / hurricanecity


Florida Emergency Management / floridadisaster.org

Cuban Radar Flhurricane Recording of Cuban Mosaic radar

Southeastern US Radar Mosaic
Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Miami FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Melbourne FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Jacksonville FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)


Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL (Naples)
Lee County, FL (Ft. Myers)
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL (St. Petersburg)
Hillsborough County, FL (Tampa)
Paso County, FL
Hernando County, FL
Citrus County, FL
Levy County, FL

Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites

State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Tallahassee

"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh

Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
St. Petersburg Times (Tampabay.com)
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Palm Beach Post
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)

Storm Animation of what a storm passing just north of Tampa would do to Tampa Bay


Dominican Republic Radar (Flhurricane Recording/Loop of this Radar)
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Fay plotted on Google Map
Fay Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Fay


stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Fay (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Fay (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Fay

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Fay
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Fay -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Wave 94L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 94L


stormplotthumb_7.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 94L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 94L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 94L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 94L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 94L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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VolusiaMike
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 63
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
Re: Fay Over Cape Canaveral [Re: MikeC]
      #82465 - Wed Aug 20 2008 10:06 AM

Mike,
What's your anticipation of the potenial for strengthening? Percentages, how much, etc.

TIA


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 289
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Fay Over Cape Canaveral [Re: MikeC]
      #82466 - Wed Aug 20 2008 10:13 AM

Well heck, she doesn't seem to be moving much, maybe drifting SSE. Wish I could really see the LLC. She seems to be building convection again, and certainly has good structure for being around/over land so long. Anyone know if any part of her "center" is over water/ It's hard to tell, but will make quite a difference as far as any strengthening is concerned. Still raining here in Melbourne.

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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 384
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: Fay Over Cape Canaveral [Re: Steve H1]
      #82467 - Wed Aug 20 2008 10:17 AM

i could be wrong but looking up close at radar i think she is almost entirely over water now. even if whe isnt, when drifting north she will def. because of the coastline shape.

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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SeaMule
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 64
Loc: Fairhope, Al...on the coast
STALLED...AND THE MODELS WILL CHANGE [Re: Steve H1]
      #82468 - Wed Aug 20 2008 10:24 AM

In looking at the building high pressure ridge that looks to have already stopped any more northerly movement...plus, the expanding outflow to her west...it looks like Fay is positioning herself to begin a different direction entirely. Given the slight sw wobble, that is sometimes indicative of a change in direction. It's quite conceivable that she is now going to begin heading west. The saving grace may be IF she traverses west slowly enough.....to perhaps dissipate. doubt that will happen, given the nice outflow and her impressive characteristics. She will enter the northern gulf as a tropical depression at worst...and then have at least 60 hours to rebuild, with all the mechanics in place to make it a real headache for the NHC.

Is this fun, or what?

anything that happens now wouldn't suprise me. it will be interesting if the new forecast models catch what I think I'm seeing.....

anyone else see this?


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kromdog
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 66
Loc: 27.99N 82.82W
Re: Fay Over Cape Canaveral [Re: NewWatcher]
      #82470 - Wed Aug 20 2008 10:34 AM

I have not seen a lot of drift to the north. Will be interesting to see the 11:00 advisory.

http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom/models/gfs_caribbean.html


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 289
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Fay Over Cape Canaveral [Re: MikeC]
      #82472 - Wed Aug 20 2008 10:42 AM

This is happening all too painfully slow. Seems the round center of clouds is drifting back towards Melbourne, but bright clouds (possible LLC) seem to be evident on the East side of the convection (see current NASA vis loop). Very frustrating since it is hard to tell which way she is going, if anywhere. I'm sure the 11am advisory will say she is moving north at 5 mph. Not totally sure I will buy that.

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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 94
Re: Fay Over Cape Canaveral [Re: Steve H1]
      #82474 - Wed Aug 20 2008 10:55 AM

I've been bouncing back n forth between radar, IR, and Vis. Is it me or has Fay moved SE? The COC appears to be in the Atlantic now SE of Cape Canaveral. If you look at the visible it's apparent at least part of the COC has made it's way over water.

Edited by charlottefl (Wed Aug 20 2008 10:56 AM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Fay Over Cape Canaveral [Re: charlottefl]
      #82475 - Wed Aug 20 2008 11:17 AM

Always watch radar when it comes to movement. Sat images give a false sense of movement. Also sat images are updated usually every 12-30min while radar is updated every 4-6 min. Also you have to look at the movement over the past hour or 2. Fay wont get much further north than this as the ridge is now along 81W..so maybe another 10miles ( 28.5-29dg as I stated in my forecasts) or so then maybe a wobble to the east or southeast can happen before a turn west later tomorrow. Finally the GFDL has come along (somewhat).
Fay looks about right for a 995 pressure over land, has a open area of divergence near the center (no precip) and has most of its strongest winds on the SE side and over the water in feeder bands. If Fay does jog ENE-ESE by just a dg to 79-80W then she does have 24hrs to make it back to hurricane status before the ridge gets her moving west back towards Cape-Daytona beach.


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metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 92
Loc: NC 36.34N 77.73W
Re: Fay Over Cape Canaveral [Re: scottsvb]
      #82476 - Wed Aug 20 2008 11:22 AM

NASA shuttle landing field reporting NE winds, wouldn't this indicate that the center is just to their east/se, very close if not just over the ocean's edge?

--------------------
Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
Hurricane Season 2010: 15/8/4


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Fay Over Cape Canaveral [Re: kromdog]
      #82477 - Wed Aug 20 2008 11:35 AM

That was a great link..thanks. My eyes are tired from looking at radar loops, but it appears to me that half of her COC is over water and the other half is over land. In the last loop image, it also looks like her western side is trying to get itself together - again. It looks like deja vu from yesterday, just on the other side of the peninsula.
Could that be because she is now feeding from some of the warmer water in the Gulf Stream - or has she even reached that area yet? Or am I just seeing things?

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Fay Over Cape Canaveral [Re: metwannabe]
      #82478 - Wed Aug 20 2008 11:36 AM

I would think as a precaution a few days ago that NASA has everything indoors or wherever. Especially since they expected Fay to be about 1.5 dg east of them and a hurricane by 5pm (as of last night).

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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 94
Re: Fay Over Cape Canaveral [Re: scottsvb]
      #82479 - Wed Aug 20 2008 11:46 AM

Got it. The COC is just to the SE of Titusville, moving very slowy, very slowly to the N. Hard to see on Radar. I found a better Radar view and zoomed in.

Edited by charlottefl (Wed Aug 20 2008 11:46 AM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Fay Over Cape Canaveral [Re: scottsvb]
      #82480 - Wed Aug 20 2008 11:48 AM

Latest GFS brings Fay ashore earlier than the NHC forecasted ( late tonight ) and moves Fay from near my forecast points of Titusville-Daytona west and coming off the west coast near Pasco-Hernando County (30-50miles north of Tampa) later tomorrow afternoon-evening. Tropical Storm warnings might go into affect later tonight for the west coast of florida if this does happen, afterall its only 12-18hrs before it moves back onshore again and less than 36hrs (from this post) till it enters the GOM. Also tomorrow Hurricane Watches could go up from Cedar Key-Panama City. The GFS has been consistant and that along with the ECMWF, UKMET, and even the GFDL (somewhat is coming along). Still it has 18-24hrs to make it alittle bit more east before it gets pulled back west.

Edited by scottsvb (Wed Aug 20 2008 11:51 AM)


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 289
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Fay Over Cape Canaveral [Re: Colleen A.]
      #82481 - Wed Aug 20 2008 11:50 AM

Hey Colleen, how are things going with you. I show up at work this morning (right on the MLB airport) to find out they will open the site at noon. Fay has been hanging around dumping rain all morning here. An hour later I get a message that the site will definitely be open at noon. at 10 am we get another notice that the site will be open at noon. At 11:30 I get another notice that the site will be closed wednesday.....aaarrrrggghhh!!!! Anyhow, FAy seems to be moving a bit east now, which is interesting since if she can do that she may indeed strengthen, and may actually dip a bit South of east before heading back west. (Purely my assumption here). As Scott said, I don't see her going much, if any, further north. Maybe Fay will pay you a visit after all! She certainly firing some convection off to the north. Well, there's plenty of hurricane season left, and if you look at the Euro extended maybe Fay #2 south of Cubs at 240!! Talk to you soon.

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engicedave
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 66
Loc: 28.33N 80.69W
Re: Fay Over Cape Canaveral [Re: metwannabe]
      #82482 - Wed Aug 20 2008 11:52 AM

Quote:

NASA shuttle landing field reporting NE winds, wouldn't this indicate that the center is just to their east/se, very close if not just over the ocean's edge?




and I am on Merritt Island, about 10mi S of the Cape/KSC, and rain/winds are now out of the W
Meaning Fay's center is just about directly N of me and below KSC


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kromdog
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 66
Loc: 27.99N 82.82W
Re: Fay Over Cape Canaveral [Re: scottsvb]
      #82483 - Wed Aug 20 2008 11:57 AM

This is a link to a nice animated model of the GFS which supports your observations.


http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom/models/gfs_caribbean.html


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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
Re: Fay Over Cape Canaveral [Re: Steve H1]
      #82484 - Wed Aug 20 2008 12:00 PM

Bush is in Orlando.
CNN showed him Speaking at VFW Convention.
Probably why that lady last nite said she had to be in Orlando for that very important meeting.
And couldn't say that bush would be there.
Everything Federal will be open until he leaves.
Fay sitting and strengthening.
All day.
Next move will be west.
http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008/clark6latest.png

Maybe the potus could stop by fema on his way out. Just a thought. 8D

Edited by danielw (Wed Aug 20 2008 12:13 PM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Fay Over Cape Canaveral [Re: kromdog]
      #82486 - Wed Aug 20 2008 12:20 PM

12z GFS supports this also, plus if you just look at the water vapor imagry you can see a westerly flow (east to west from the ridge building in)from now 82W towards the GOM. It should be near 81W by this evening, 80W by later tonight, 79W by Thurs morning... so with that said, wherever Fay is exactly, her movement west should start then...looks like Thursday morning making 2nd landfall in Florida then or by mid-day.

A quick note here.... GFS though has Fay later this afternoon near Daytona I wont rule that out if she heads wnw this evening,... if she is still down by The Cape-Titusville, then she will move probably slightly further south across the state near Orlando-Pasco offshore. 20miles can make alot of difference for Tampa bay and also it being out in the GOM slightly longer down the road.

Edited by scottsvb (Wed Aug 20 2008 12:27 PM)


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Fay Over Cape Canaveral [Re: scottsvb]
      #82490 - Wed Aug 20 2008 12:44 PM

Is there any particular loop I should look at to better see that eastward motion? I've heard it from several people but I'm not sure which loop is the best to look at.
Steve...I don't want another visit from Fay! We were spared the worst weather in my half of the county here yesterday (Polk)..and I'm not sure what Fay would bring if she wanders more east, fires up and then heads back my way! Especially with her "track" record.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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