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News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Gustav rapidly intensifying moving SW [Re: cieldumort]
      #83172 - Thu Aug 28 2008 05:11 AM

Wow! I guess we`ll a rapidly intensifying Gustav in the next hours! Pressure drop of 6 hPa in two hours (995-989 hPa). Surface winds up to 46 kt and it´s moving SW! So it`ll pass Jamaica to the southand also maintain it´s connection to the strongest feeder band and so it may continue to intensify to the south of Jamaica!. Ok, I´m quite a bit surprised.
edit: Another wow! In a band to the east of the center 55 kt! Looks reliable!

Edited by Raymond (Thu Aug 28 2008 05:59 AM)


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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: Gustav rapidly intensifying moving SW [Re: Raymond]
      #83173 - Thu Aug 28 2008 06:32 AM

Ok, I´m a bit puzzled now. Surface winds up to 76 kt in the NE eyewall??? Flight level winds were 67 kt and very heavy rain rates! But the SW part is considerably weaker and center pressure around 986 hPa. Let´s see the vortex data message!
The satellite reprensation is breathtaking! Must have been a very bumpy recon ride!
edit: Ok, the 67 kt are confirmed, but they didn´t report the 76 kt surface winds. Must be absolutely wild in there: center made a notheastward jog!!! And eyewall must be less than 50% complete.
Alltogether: Looks like, that we have Hurricane Gustav again!
edit2: Ok, an explanation for the strenght in the NE/E and the realtive weakness in the SW: If you look on the last microwave pass, you see the mass of the extremely strong convection to the east and the center open to the W/SW!

Edited by Raymond (Thu Aug 28 2008 06:50 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Gustav intensifying [Re: Raymond]
      #83175 - Thu Aug 28 2008 07:28 AM

WTNT42 KNHC 281113
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
730 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS FOUND MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS OF 67 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 60 KT AT THE SURFACE.
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY FORECAST TO
REFLECT THE CURRENT AND FORECAST INTENSITY. THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. THE STRENGTHENING OF
GUSTAV HAS PROMPTED THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA TO ISSUE A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR JAMAICA.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE ISSUANCE OF AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 800 AM EDT.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Gustav intensifying [Re: danielw]
      #83178 - Thu Aug 28 2008 07:52 AM

I removed the word Rapid from the intensification header in my last post.

At the current rate of intensification I may have to add it back to the post.
RECON just found a 983.1mb pressure on the latest pass through the eye.
113300 1752N 07539W 983.1 mb


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
New Thread [Re: danielw]
      #83180 - Thu Aug 28 2008 08:04 AM

New Thread is up. Please post there.
Thanks Mike.

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat....=true#Post83179


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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: Gustav intensifying [Re: danielw]
      #83182 - Thu Aug 28 2008 08:08 AM

Strongest winds not around the center, but in a band to the NE: 67 kt flight level/70 kt surface. Must be very dynamic in the center region. I guess, it will take some time till we see a fully formed eye. And there is still the issue about the future track: How close it`ll come to Jamaica?

Please read the above post...New Thread started...

Edited by Storm Cooper (Thu Aug 28 2008 08:12 AM)


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