MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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7AM Quick Update Aug 14
Watching these items, more to come soon:
6:00PM Update
The National Hurricane Center has ceased advisories on Tropical Depression Two. It has been sheared enough that the normal satellite estimations cannot be done on it. The remnant low will still be tracked in case of redevelopment. It has a very slim chance to regerate as it gets north of the Caribbean islands.
Focus for now will be on the wave east of it, 90L.
Another Area near the southeastern Bahamas has a low chance <30% of development. We'll watch because of the close proximity, but development is not expected.
3:30PM Update
The National Hurricane Center now gives 90L a greater than 50% chance to develop within the next two days. ( Ie Code Red). It needs some more time to come together. General motion of 90L we be to the west, the Eastern Caribbean should be watching this one closely into next week. Beyond that, it is too soon to tell. (Recurve after islands still most likely, however)
Original Update
Today marks five years since Hurricane sliced through central Florida, from Punta Gorda, Port Charlotte, Arcadia, Wauchula, through Orlando onward to Daytona Beach, doing damage the whole way.
There is nothing immediate threatening any land areas.
Yesterday afternoon Tropical Depression Two was on the verge of becoming a Tropical Storm. This morning, the same system is on the verge of falling into an open wave. And after seeing a few visible satellite images this morning, it appears to be going the way of opening up. This will keep it moving more westward, and will be something to keep watch on for redevelopment, but not much else in the short term. The lack of moisture was TD#2's main enemy. If convection rebursts again this morning or if shear relaxes, it may maintain itself as a Tropical Depression.
TD#2 is the victim of some dry air and east to southeasterly shear, enough so that it almost looked as if it were moving somewhat south, but in fact, it was just being tilted and distorted by the shear which eventually did it in yesterday. A weakened wave may keep it moving further west and possibly toward the Caribbean and not move north as soon or at all.
Recording of the above satellite (temporary)
The wave off Africa has been designated 90L, and may become a depression within the next day or two (50% chance). It is a large area that is still relatively unorganized, and larger areas take a bit longer to get going. Long range models for it suggest it will develop, and head generally westward toward the Caribbean islands. This system is centered generally further south than TD#2 was. This morning it doesn't look all that organized. It has the circulation, but it's weak on the convection.
It has a few things going for it that TD#2 didn't, mainly more moisture to work with and less influence from the Saharan Air Layer.
After that it diverges from going into the Caribbean sea to recurving out to sea before approaching the Southeastern coastline. If it were to affect land near the US it would not be until very ate next week into the following week. Too many assumptions this far out. The out to sea scenario is only slightly more probable than the others at the moment, but it's dropping with a more westerly one gaining probability. Too soon to tell, though. It has to survive the Atlantic first.
A wave in the eastern Caribbean sea is still being watched but has a very low chance of formation currently <30.
Beyond that, yet another wave over Africa has the chance to form into something once it gets into the Atlantic.
TD#2 Spotlight
Tropical Depression Two Event Related Links
Animated Model Plot of TD#2
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
(More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of TD#2
(Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of TD#2
(Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for TD#2
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on TD#2 -- RAMMB Info
Floater Satellite Images:
Visible
(Loop),
IR
(Loop),
WV
(Loop),
Dvorak
(Loop),
AVN
(Loop),
RGB
(Loop),
Rainbow
(Loop),
Funktop
(Loop),
RB Top
Loop)
90L Event Related Links
Animated Model Plot of 90L
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
(More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 90L
(Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 90L
(Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 90L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 90L -- RAMMB Info
Floater Satellite Images:
Visible
(Loop),
IR
(Loop),
WV
(Loop),
Dvorak
(Loop),
AVN
(Loop),
RGB
(Loop),
Rainbow
(Loop),
Funktop
(Loop),
RB Top
Loop)
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations
Barbados Brohav Weather Fax
Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)
San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop
(
Latest Static)
Various Caribbean Radio Stations
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 788
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
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Had come through the Tampa Bay area as predicted, the damage and losses would have been phenominal. The Tampa Bay region was so unprepared for that storm. After , and all of the storms that year, folks are much more aware of the potential for massive damage from a major hurricane strike in the West Central Florida area. would have caught this region off-guard and unprepared. That won't be the case for any future threat.
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Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual:
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craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 237
Loc: Sinajana, Guam 13.46N 144.74E
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Thats odd s 90L is not the same one as or ?
It looks like an archived image
Edited by craigm (Thu Aug 13 2009 09:35 AM)
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
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wow, i have to say this thing is difficult to get an understanding of. i find it fascinating that its sticking to the west south west movement. its kind of lingering right now and the models are preety confused. do we have a slight understanding of what this thing will do? it seems the atlantic isnt very condusive towards sustaining much of anything right now. there isnt enough moisutre and the sea surface temps based on yesterday survey keeps things in check. illk be curious to see. if this TD #2 cant make it, how that second wave everybody is watching is going to do.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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There is a fair chance they may hold it as a weak TD since shear is starting to wane a bit in the area. But at this point its still on the verge of being an open wave.
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
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Quote:
There is a fair chance they may hold it as a weak TD since shear is starting to wane a bit in the area. But at this point its still on the verge of being an open wave.
latest wind steering currents.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 773
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
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The latest long visible loop does not support an opening of the surface low. I think the surface circulation is strong enough to hold out...it is influencing quite a large surrounding area. The upper conditions are harsh and dry air is certainly impeding upper moisture from the north and northeast. If it can pull moisture from the , which it is attempting to do, it may regenerate some. Either way this system is pulling the tropical envelope with it and 90L will not have the same conditions to hinder it in its development and I would not be surprised if 90L becomes Ana. But I do see TD#2 remaining a strong surface low and probably a TD for the forseeable time.
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doug
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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How right you are! Latest WV static and loop show an area of convection forming near or in the center of TD 2.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/float1.html
TW 3 available here: Not quite in the frame yet!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/float2.html
More images here at the CATL Gap:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/imagery/catl.html
While there glance at the 4 lows in the CATL Gap.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/wv-l.jpg
From the east... TW3,TD2, E Caribbean and just east of the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Last but not least the GOM:
Mid to upper level Low just to NW of Key West,FL
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-l.jpg
The whole Tropical Atlantic Water Vapor image
Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 13 2009 12:12 PM)
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
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A few thoughts on TD 2 and 90L.
TD 2 is crippled. Though it's thrown up a nice thunderstorm cell, the circulations is elongating east to west. At this point the system is hours away from opening up into a wave unless the thunderstorm activity somehow manages to increase further in size and duration. To do that TD 2 would have to fight through moderate shear, relatively low heat content, and a ton of dry air around it. The made the right call by keeping a 25kt TD through the entire forecast, even though the odds of that happening are almost nil.thinking about it further, the only thing I can see potentially working in TD 2's favor is its small size. (if that's really a plus at this point)
On to 90l, The system is a big sloppy disorganized mess right now. That's not to say it can't get its act together in the next 24 hours, but for the moment, the invest is too disorganized to really ramp up. Mind you, in this case the large size will help insulate the system from some of the dry air, T numbers are sitting at 1.0, but until the dry slot in the center of the system is taken care of, the invest will be very slow to develop.
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TD/TS/HU/MH
19/18/0905 <- My prediction (2013 Predictions)
00/00/00/00 <- Year Totals
http://blog.bloodstar.org
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
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interesting to notice that both the intensity model plot and the 11am advisory have changed. the 11am advisory doesnt even have it developing into a TS at any point in their projection. and the model runs for the intensity plots are starting to come into agreement that this thing will barely become a ts.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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San Juan NWS has a really good take on the situation.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1018 AM AST THU AUG 13 2009
PLEASE REFER TO National Hurricane Center FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON
TD#2 AND VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE SE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS A VERY LARGE
CIRCULATION AND IT WILL TAKE TIME BEFORE A CENTER CAN GET WELL
ESTABLISHED. UNTIL A CENTER GETS ESTABLISHED DONT EXPECT MODELS TO
GET A GOOD HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS DISTURBANCE. STILL AT
LEAST 6 DAYS OR SO BEFORE ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE AND TRACK FORECASTS THIS FAR OUT ARE IN THE ORDER OF
350 NAUTICAL MILES OR SO. THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY AT ITS
WIDESPOINT IS ABOUT 700 MILES IN DIAMETER OR ROUGHLY THE SIZE OF
THE STATE OF FLORIDA.
http://flhurricane.com/text/AFDSJU.txt
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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Well said Bloodstar. Really well said. Was sort of surprised that they kept it as TD intensity at 11, good discussion on the 11 as well. Yes, a big tongue of moisture wrapped itself around it ... was more surprised that cell popped up the way it did earlier this afternoon closer to the center of circulation as misplaced convection had been one of it's bigger problems.
The large, messy wave that the models are jumping on is fizzling out fast though it may have some staying power somewhere in there.
Old wave in the Caribbean is convecting nicely, don't think it has any real organization though it does grab the eye and make you stare.
Well it makes me stare..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 773
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
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Well model consensus and the latest visible agree with you...the TStorm complex west of the center is being sheared; but the low level circulation is showing banding in the SE quardrant where none previously existed. The shear is more persistent than originally expected. I still think the low has staying power and will fire convection off and on long enough to remain classified.
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doug
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 788
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
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Quote:
Old wave in the Caribbean is convecting nicely, don't think it has any real organization though it does grab the eye and make you stare.
Well it makes me stare..
I wouldn't write that one off just yet either. It's closer to home and does have a marginal chance of further development. Stranger things have happened. 
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Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual:
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Graphic is now showing a better than 50% chance of 90L forming a Tropical Storm in the next 48 hours.
I guess we could add a green level to TD 2 for steady state Tropical Depressions that have movement and don't change their status.
Lots of Ocean between here and TD2 or 90L. Be sure to check your West Florida weather. Moderate plume of rain moving NE into the Big Bend area from offshore south of Pensacola and Appalachicola.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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A tropical cyclone Formation alert was just issued by the ATCF. See This page this means TD#3 may form sometime in the next 24 hours from 90L.
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craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 237
Loc: Sinajana, Guam 13.46N 144.74E
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This setup is fascinating. Study this loop a minute and feel free to add comments.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html
(This loop is obviously time sensitve so what I am noticing may not be apparent in a few hours.)
I must admit after watching storms for many years I don't recall one developing with a satellite signature this impressive.
First you can see why TD2 never had a chance with 90L on its heels.
You can see the shear has shifted to the ESE.
Secondly, I will need some Mets help with this, I am seeing a reflection North of TD2 which I am attributing to 90L. I know systems can affect their immediate environment through amplification but I don't recall a system with this much influence as an invest, let alone its magnitude. Some have posted that this looks disorganized, but I have to disagree. There is a lot of energy here as evidenced by microwave imagery (banding features developing).
The remnants of TD2 will provide moist air in front of 90L in the NW quad.
Check out WV still from PSU e-wall
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/atlrecentwv.html
(look all the way to the right, that is the WV associated with TD2)
Talk about the switch being turned on!
On another note I think we're in for a wet weekend in S FL.
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Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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90L's disorganized in convection only. circulation and influence wise it's not disorganized at all. It looks similar to some of the large storms of the past (convection away from the "Center" in the bands) when they were in the pre-depression stages. Look at images of or from 2005 from before they were named for examples.
Luckily there is a lot of time, and there is a higher amount of shear in the Atlantic this year. But this system may be large in infulence enough (along with TD#2 paving the way) to be of a worry next week into the week after.
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mwillis
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 68
Loc: Cape canaveral 28.37N 80.80W
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Its amazing to watch the storm clouds climb into the atmosphere. Look at the COC in the 1km gestational imagery
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=AL902009
Looks as if the convection and cloud tops are starting to build at the center. Furthermore after serveral other images rain bands are getting heavier(if you call it rain bands,lol)
Edited by me:
By the way im looking at the 30 frame version.
Edited by mwillis (Thu Aug 13 2009 09:41 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2089
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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It does seem to have a weak circulation (probably mid level) over the southwest Dominican Republic near 18.4N 71.6W at 14/01Z. That location is over land - but its worth keeping an eye on this wave for the next couple of days since it is a little closer to home.
ED
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