MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2798
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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4:45 PM EDT 3:45PM CDT Update August 16 2009
Claudette has windows around 50MPH, the center of Claudette was exposed for a bit, to keep it a bit weaker, but the rest of the system is trying to fire. It is going west of Indian Pass and will likely make landfall overnight west of Panama City, closer to Miramar Beach.
It is moving mostly Northwest around 14 mph.
Ana weakens to a Tropical Depression, most of the convection is to the north. Aircraft recon is still hunting for it. It is possible Ana will be dropped later tonight if the Recon cannot find a circulation center.
Bill is on the verge of becoming this year's first hurricane, which it may do later tonight or tomorrow. More evidence that it will recurve away from the Caribbean and mainland is there, and it is starting to gain latitude now. Bermuda may have to watch Bill later.
1:55 PM EDT 12:55PM CDT Update August 16 2009
Claudette has an official advisory. 50MPH Winds, 1008mb pressure (from recon), and moving Northwest at 14MPH.
It will come close to Indian Pass (near Pt. St. Joe) if it does go over, it may make landfall around 2-3PM CDT (3-4PM EDT), if it stays to the west, it will not make landfall until late tonight around Panama City Beach.
12:15 EDT Update Aug 16
TD#4 Has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Claudette
A special statement was issued, and the 2PM advisory will reflect Claudette.
10:45 AM EDT Update Aug 16
TD#4 remains that way for 11AM, the National Hurricane Center is waiting on a recon flight to make any further upgrade decisions.
If it misses the first landfall opportunity this afternoon, then it will likely landfall in the Evening. 50-55MPH winds in that case, still under Hurricane Force. I wouldn't go out in that weather tonight.
9:40 AM EDT Update Aug 16
TD#4 is likely to be upgraded to a Tropical Storm at 11. However based on the current forward motion on Radar it may landfall as early as 2PM (1PM CDT) today or more likely sometime this evening.
It's running out of time to organize much, but it should be a rainy windy and generally nasty day where it makes landfall, but nothing too bad. Surge may be 4-6 feet along the coast to the east of where the center makes landfall, however. It could spawn some weaker tornadoes across the area as well.
Original Update
Tropical Depression Four forms from 90L in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. It is moving north northwest around 16mph. It is expected to landfall in the Western Florida Panhandle as a Tropical Storm tonight into early tomorrow.
Tropical Storm Warnings are up for... Florida/Alabama border east to the Suwanee River.
TD#4 is a small storm and effects are likely to be around the center. It is expected to become a weak Tropical Storm, name would be Claudette. See Local Statements when they arrive.
Ana Remains a Tropical Storm for Now. Watches and Warnings for the Leewards/PR/VI still are up.
Bill has gained a little bit of strength, future track still leans toward curving out to sea.
More to come later.
[Southeastern US Radar Mosaic
Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop
(
Latest Static)
Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop
(
Latest Static)
Miami FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop
(
Latest Static)
Melbourne FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop
(
Latest Static)
Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop
(
Latest Static)
Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop
(
Latest Static)
Long Term Radar Recording of 91L approach to Panhandle
Event Related Links
Emergency Management
FloridaDisaster.org - Florida Emergency Management
Individual Florida County Emergency Management Websites
Webcams, Video, Audio
WJHG 7 the NBC Affiliate in Panama City Beach, FL - contributor Jason Kelly broadcasts from here.
WMBB - Panama City Beach, FL
WEAR ABC 3 in Pensacola
NBC 15 / Mobile/Pensacola
Mark Sudduth's Hurricanetrack.com
Schooner's Beach Cam (Webcam Panama City Beach)
Flhurricane Recording of Sandestin at Miramar Beach
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations
Barbados Brohav Weather Fax
Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)
San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop
(
Latest Static)
Various Caribbean Radio Stations
Ana Event Related Links
Animated Model Plot of Ana
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
(More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Ana
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Ana Clark Evans Track Plot of Ana
(Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Ana
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Ana -- RAMMB Info
Floater Satellite Images:
Visible
(Loop),
IR
(Loop),
WV
(Loop),
Dvorak
(Loop),
AVN
(Loop),
RGB
(Loop),
Rainbow
(Loop),
Funktop
(Loop),
RB Top
Loop)
Bill Event Related Links
Animated Model Plot of Bill
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
(More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Bill
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Bill Clark Evans Track Plot of Bill
(Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Bill
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Bill -- RAMMB Info
Floater Satellite Images:
Visible
(Loop),
IR
(Loop),
WV
(Loop),
Dvorak
(Loop),
AVN
(Loop),
RGB
(Loop),
Rainbow
(Loop),
Funktop
(Loop),
RB Top
Loop)
Claudette Event Related Links
Animated Model Plot of Claudette
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
(More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Claudette
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Claudette Clark Evans Track Plot of Claudette
(Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Claudette
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Claudette -- RAMMB Info
Floater Satellite Images:
Visible
(Loop),
IR
(Loop),
WV
(Loop),
Dvorak
(Loop),
AVN
(Loop),
RGB
(Loop),
Rainbow
(Loop),
Funktop
(Loop),
RB Top
Loop)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
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I see a hint of some tiny convection trying to form with Ana. She's not dead yet, but she's on life support.
If the shear ever relaxes and she moves north or south of the big islands, the intensity forecast could be thrown out the window.
Unfortunately, I've got Claudette to worry about. Impressive radar presentation of this thing yet again this morning. There are some reds appearing periodically in the AVN loop. Since I'm supposedly on the western edge of the system it shouldn't be bad, but it appears that this could strengthen RAPIDLY.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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FNMOC now have 04L as Claudette... could be quite strong by landfall late this evening.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
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Quote:
FNMOC now have 04L as Claudette... could be quite strong by landfall late this evening.
NRL, as of this posting, still has it as FOUR, but I believe it will be Claudette at the 8am intermediate. It just looks too impressive on the satellite and radar to be "just a depression".
I'm thinking 60-70mph at landfall, which would be a bit higher than the official forecast 12hr from now (which is 45kts), but I prefer to think it's going to be worse than it is,within reason.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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wxbug
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1
Loc: Central Panhandle
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Ok guys, I have been a lurker on this website for about 2 years but never have posted because I am just
a self taught weather nut! But this thing is going to come right over me! Right now it is calm but things
are going to go down hill soon I expect. Any advice would be appreciated.
From Rural Calhoun County north of Panama City
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craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 237
Loc: Sinajana, Guam 13.46N 144.74E
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She is officially Claudette at alternate FNMOC site
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bin/tc_home.cgi
NRL Monterey must lag behind this site
Edited by craigm (Sun Aug 16 2009 08:06 AM)
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SeaMule
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 64
Loc: Fairhope, Al...on the coast
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she started like this, had the entire GOM to crank up, because she was born in the Bay of Campeche. By the time she hit Pensacola...she was a category 3-4
Water temps high. This will dump rain. unless it stalls, no worries.
things getting interesting.
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craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 237
Loc: Sinajana, Guam 13.46N 144.74E
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Quote:
She is officially Claudette at alternate FNMOC site
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bin/tc_home.cgi
NRL Monterey must lag behind this site
I'm going to correct myself here. Studying this particular Navy site:
http://www.usno.navy.mil/FNMOC/tropical-applications
It appears they will designate a name prior to a depression actually becoming a storm. This seems strange in that another depression might beat it to the punch, especially after what we have seen this week.
NHC intermediate is still classifying 04 as a depression. Looking for feedback as to why FNMOC is labeling this already.
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Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
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Quote:
NHC intermediate is still classifying 04 as a depression. Looking for feedback as to why FNMOC is labeling this already.
I can only speculate, but maybe they either know something that they aren't saying (unlikely) or they were given bad information (unlikely) or they jumed the gun (unlikely too).
ETA: I just watched Lyons' report on . He basically dismissed the intensity forecast for TD 4, and said it was poorly organized... using a Tampa radar as his basis. I'm looking at the Tallahassee radar, which tells a somewhat different picture.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sun Aug 16 2009 08:56 AM)
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Prospero
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 44
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
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Wind gust to 26mph on St. Pete Beach and the tide seems to be rising an hour and a half after the official high tide. There is water splashing over the seawall here in Gulfport, Florida. No rain, but nice stiff breeze and beautiful dark purple skies to the west.
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native
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida 26.31N 80.11W
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Well...here's what I dreamt of last night....good dreams.
TD#4 - Let it keep clipping right along so that it has less time to gain anymore strength. I certainly hope that no one in the panhandle is being dimissive of this storm.
Ana - Let's hope she also keeps racing right along ahead of what's left of her...let us also hope that she falls utterly and completely apart this next time before she reaches any land mass(es). If she does not though, she's got to (being how disorganizd she is) get shreaded up going over Hispanola and Cuba...would not want her to come off of Cuba with any sort of structure in tact and get into the GOM. That being said...I see TD in her status for 11am.
Bill - Hoping he gets his act together quicker so that he'll feel the pull poleward and become a "fish-spinner"
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
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Quote:
Wind gust to 26mph on St. Pete Beach and the tide seems to be rising an hour and a half after the official high tide. There is water splashing over the seawall here in Gulfport, Florida. No rain, but nice stiff breeze and beautiful dark purple skies to the west.
Yeah, onshore waves, high surf, and a lot of rain will be the major impacts I think, unless it suddenly halts and then has time to strengthen.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2103
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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The Navy gets its centerpoint, initial strength, pressure, etc., and designation from . also attempts to give the Navy (and some other agencies) a heads-up prior to any status changes so that the agencies can update their web sites just prior to the bulletins. I see where FNMOC is now back to 04L - looks like somebody either jumped the gun or may have delayed the upgrade. If the Navy sites indicate Claudette around 1030 or so, you'll know that an upgrade is in the works at .
Cheers,
ED
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Beach
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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Didn't she just bite the dust ...(literally)
Here is some info from the bouy she passed over:
08 16 0950 SSE 17.5 21.4 9.2 10 6.2 - 29.83 +0.12
08 16 0650 S 7.8 9.7 8.5 10 6.0 - 29.72 -0.12
08 16 0550 N 17.5 23.3 6.6 8 5.2 - 29.74
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
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T-Numbers (per SSD) are 2.0/2.0 for TD Four. That's marginaly higher than they are for Ana (1.5/2.0), and Ana is still a tropical storm. So, it's on the border I think.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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AgentB
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 179
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
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To me, TD #4 is still looking somewhat disorganized. Checking some of the NDBC stations I see gusts in the 25-30kt range(42036, 42013, SGOF1). Right now, it looks like the biggest impact will be the rain that it brings to the Panhandle.
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Check the Surf
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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 68
Loc: St. Petersburg, FL
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td4 definitely doesn't look as well organized as it did even earlier this morning. She looks very elongated N-S in radar returns, and not symmetrical at all. Looking at level3, It looks to be moving almost due North with just a hint of Westerly movement. I would predict landfall more in the big bend/Tallahassee area. Regardless of where it makes landfall, it is going to bring plenty of rainfall.
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Matt
Chase 22
Stormnet
TBW Skywarn Spotter
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Beach
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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Take a look in the area of 30N 50W
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-ft.html
Can someone weigh in on if that is a surface low starting to form.
Thanks
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 964
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
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We are seeing pressure falls down to 1013mb just to the NE of the center of the storm.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42036
Reference location of buoy (see attachment)
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craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 237
Loc: Sinajana, Guam 13.46N 144.74E
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Here are some web cams from the area near 04
St. George island:
http://www.beachview.com/st_george_is_640.htm
Panama City Beach:
http://www.tripsmarter.com/multimedia/cams_flash/cam_schoonersbeach_player.swf (This one is live)
http://www.beachview.com/Beach_Cams/Panama_City_Beach.aspx
Alligator Point:
http://www.beachview.com/Beach_Cams/Alligator_Point.aspx
St Teresa Beach:
http://www.beachview.com/Beach_Cams/St._Teresa_Beach.aspx
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Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage
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