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Archives 2000s >> 2009 News Talkbacks

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M.A.
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 100
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US [Re: Random Chaos]
      #86439 - Fri Aug 21 2009 07:00 AM

Bill is looking quite ragged this morning. Either an ERC or drawing in some dry air. Either way he does not look like a Cat3 this morning. It almost looks as though the western portion of the circulation convection has collapsed. Could the shear be a little stronger than forecasted?

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
MJO Forecast [Re: M.A.]
      #86440 - Fri Aug 21 2009 07:28 AM

THE MJO FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME AS PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED/DISCUSSED...WITH BOTH CFS AND EWP MODELS SHOWING
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS (NEGATIVE ANOMALIES) PERSISTING THROUGH THE
END OF AUGUST. THEY...HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON BEST
LOCATION...WITH THE CFS FAVORING THE CARIBBEAN/NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA AND THE EWP THE ATLANTIC BASIN. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
HAVE SETTLED ON A LULL IN ACTIVITY...AS THEY NO LONGER SHOW
TROPICAL SYSTEMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DOMAIN. THEY TRY TO RELEASE
AVAILABLE ENERGY IN THE FORM OF HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE MANY TUTTS AND ALONG THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
TROUGH/ ITCZ...WITH MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
VENEZUELA-NORTHERN HALF OF COLOMBIA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WBC/PMDCA

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
201 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2009

VALID 12Z SUN AUG 23 2009 - 12Z THU AUG 27 2009
edited
TROPICS..HURCN BILL MOVES NWD GETTING AS FAR WEST 68W-69W WITH
VERY HEAVY SWELL AND SURF IMPACTING THE EAST COAST WITH HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND AND INTO MARITIME CANADA DAYS
3 AND 4. CHI VELOCITY ANOMALY INDICATES THAT THE ATLANTIC BECOME
RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME
CONSENSUS OF A WAVE MOVING THE BAHAMAS REGION LATE PERIOD BUT THE
EPAC WILL BE UNDER HIGHLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND MODELS GENERATE
AT LEAST 3 SYSTEMS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE TIME FRAME.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WBC/PMDEPD

Edited by danielw (Fri Aug 21 2009 07:36 AM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: MJO Forecast [Re: danielw]
      #86441 - Fri Aug 21 2009 08:44 AM

Thank you Daniel, appreciate you posting that. Lost in thinking on Bill and not beyond Bill.

Think the present presentation of Bill is just a reality of what has been for most the time. We are compelled and drawn in by his immense size but internally something always seemed not quite right with him and I always found it hard to accept he was a 4. Mentally I accept the data analytically but he was never quite perfectly formed, tilted or had dry air in him often and suddenly the illusion is pulled away (saying this poetically vs scientifically because others here are better at the scientific terms) and he is what he is... and no matter what someone will have to deal with him. Been watching the reports from the Canadian Hurricane Centre to keep things in perspective.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 959
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Bill presentation [Re: LoisCane]
      #86442 - Fri Aug 21 2009 09:36 AM

What I see this a.m. is that Bill is behaving according to plan. Movement now NNW and the eye is becoming better structured and well positioned. That may be consistent with decreasing Sw'ly shear. I think some strenghtening will occur due to SST's. It looks as if 69W or so is as close as the system will traverse westward.

--------------------
doug


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: MJO Forecast [Re: LoisCane]
      #86443 - Fri Aug 21 2009 09:36 AM

It's may just be a wobble and it's harder now to see the COC, but if you click on forecast points with this, it looks like he's east of the projected track...which would be more of an issue for Bermuda.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: MJO Forecast [Re: Ed in Va]
      #86445 - Fri Aug 21 2009 11:44 AM

No Hurricane conditions will affect Bermuda..but they will get 35-50mph winds and a couple tornados in squalls. Bill has already bypassed Bermuda in longitude..and wont make more of a NNE turn until it passes the latitude.

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Kent
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
Re: Bill weakens some more, No Direct Impact to New England [Re: MikeC]
      #86447 - Fri Aug 21 2009 11:52 PM

Just wanted to share my favorite link for watching these storms. Its easy for a novice like me to see the front thats blocking Bill from hitting the east coast. I find it mesmerizing to watch.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12


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blizzardnut
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 11
Loc: 42.3 N 71.7 W
Re: Bill Could Brush Nova Scotia as a Cat I on Sunday [Re: MikeC]
      #86449 - Sat Aug 22 2009 12:31 PM

We enjoyed a beautiful morning here in Central MA, courtesy of Bill's subsidence keeping clouds/showers from an approaching front down. Unusual to see bright blue tropical skies with high humidity around here. 85/73 at noon here. Wind just shifted from SW to light easterly the past hour or so. Buoy 44008 south of Nantucket has long-period swells up to about 10 feet... cool.

Looks like Bill may finally be getting his act back together just a bit, with more hints of a better eye the last few satellite frames. Not much more time over the Gulf Stream though. It'd be fun to be up on Cape Breton Island tomorrow.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Week Ahead [Re: blizzardnut]
      #86450 - Sat Aug 22 2009 02:25 PM

Excerpt from the morning Extended Forecast Discussion.

EWD A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAY APPROACH THE BAHAMAS THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLY REACHING FL BY FRIDAY. CMC CONTS TO BE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE WHILE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOW A STRONG CLUSTERING OF LOWS IN THIS REGION LATE WEEK. CHI VERTICAL VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALY CHARTS STRONGLY FAVOR THE TROPICAL EPAC FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD WITH SOME LESSER BUT STILL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE CARRIBEAN/GLFMEX AND BAHAMAS REGION. LATEST 12Z UKMET/CMC MAINTAIN CONTINUITY INDICATING A TROPICAL WAVE OR GREATER WILL BE IN THIS REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. SFC POSITIONS DEPICTED BY DAILY HPC/TPC COORDINATION.

And from the
Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion
UPDATED MORNING PROGS INCORPORATE THE 00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN TO A CONSIDERABLE DEGREE INCREASING IN TIME ALONG WITH THE OP ECMWF. SFC FRONTAL POSITIONS ARE LITTLE DIFFERENT FROM EARLIER PRELIMS. BY DAYS 6 AND 7 HAVE ENHANCED THE DEPICTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE BAHAMAS AND OFF THE FL EAST COAST AS PER OP MODEL SOLUTIONS AND IMPROVING VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALY CHARTS OF EMWF/GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING BETTER CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE WAVE ENTERS THE BAHAMAS REGION. GOOD ENSEMBLE SFC LOW CLUSTERING NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS DAYS 5-7 THU-SAT.

note:NWS Florida Peninsula Offices are not giving this much more than a mention at this time.~danielw

Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 22 2009 02:35 PM)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 859
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Bill Could Brush Nova Scotia as a Cat I on Sunday [Re: blizzardnut]
      #86451 - Sat Aug 22 2009 05:24 PM

It looks like Bill has begun the turn toward the NE in the last couple of frames of the floater vis loop. A stormy night is in store for Cape Cod and Nantucket Sound, however. Nova Scotia and Newfoundland won't be quite so fortunate.

--------------------
Michael
2018 Actual: 15/7/2


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JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 154
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Bill Could Brush Nova Scotia as a Cat I on Sunday [Re: MichaelA]
      #86453 - Sun Aug 23 2009 06:56 AM

I stayed up most of last night, check on sat and radar images every so often. Looks like Natucket got a good amount of rainfall and some wind. According to the wind history, looks like Tropical storm force winds are already affecting Nova Scotia and Halifax. It's going to be a long day today in that harbor town.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Bill Could Brush Nova Scotia as a Cat I on Sunday [Re: JoshuaK]
      #86454 - Sun Aug 23 2009 10:59 AM

Reports from there say that they recieved minor affects...some decents rains..winds gusting 30-50mph...but nothing what could of been. Bill was the typical easy forecasted (straight forecast) for days of making only a glancing touch if any to the U.S.

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blizzardnut
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 11
Loc: 42.3 N 71.7 W
Re: Bill Could Brush Nova Scotia as a Cat I on Sunday [Re: MikeC]
      #86455 - Sun Aug 23 2009 01:58 PM

Winds and rain are not a tremendous issue according to the latest Environment Canada statement, but seas/surf are. There will likely be quite a few wrecked docks, etc on the south coast of Nova Scotia and Cape Breton. Astronomical tides are high in this area this weekend, making the coast more vulnerable than usual. And look at these seas... over 40 feet! Glad I'm not on a boat offshore!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44137


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 346
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Bill Could Brush Nova Scotia as a Cat I on Sunday [Re: blizzardnut]
      #86456 - Sun Aug 23 2009 07:42 PM

The NHC just put up the following for the wave at 17N, 51W:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE National Hurricane Center IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
BILL...LOCATED ABOUT 230 MILES WEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NNNN

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)


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