CoconutCandy
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Reged: Fri
Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
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Western Pacific Cyclone 'Choi-Wan' has organized and intensified today sufficiently to be upgraded to Typhoon (Hurricane) status, and is on it's way to becoming a Major Typhoon with a forecast peak intensity of 115 Knots or 135 mph.
(Post Note: Typhoon Choi-Wan has strengthened to 75 Kts. within the past hour or so as I write.)
Here's a recent Passive Microwave Image of Typhoon 'Choi-Wan' showing the eyewall structure continuing to improve.
Choi-Wan's projected path takes it to the north of Saipan, so it appears that Guam will not experience the eyewall and will be on the southern, 'weaker' side of the typhoon. 
Animated Color IR Loop of Western Pacific
(Click Repeatedly to Zoom In and Click and Drag to Pan Around)
Also, the typhoon is now beginning to show up on long-range doppler radar out of Andersen Air Force Base, and the coming hours should continue to depict the ongoing developments in the inner core convection (eyewall) more clearly as 'Choi-Wan' slowly approaches Saipan.
Long-Range Doppler from Guam
(Note: This is a 'real-time' link, showing the latest imagery)
(I like to UNCHECK everything EXCEPT 'Radar' and 'Counties', click the 'Rock' button ONCE so it shows 'Loop', and bump up the Animation Speed just a little. (Click Repeatedly to Zoom In and Click and Drag to Pan Around.) Somehow, this makes easier to perceive ongoing changes in the storms' structure.)
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As an aside, I believe that this cyclone is the "Regenerated" Eastern Pacific Cyclone 'HILDA', which was sheared apart in the Central Pacific a little more than a week ago, with the remnant low passing just south of the Big Island.
As is often the case, decayed or 'failed' cyclones that maintain a vigorous low and/or mid-level circulation upon crossing the International Date Line and into the Western Pacific will find very warm waters with *plenty* of 'Oceanic Heat Content' available and, when the upper atmospheric flow becomes favorable, this pre-existing disturbance will often develop into a 'new' tropical cyclone, one bearing a new name from the list of storm names for the Western Pacific .
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Will be posting more on Typhoon Choi-Wan as it passes through and to the west of the Mariana Islands.
Edited by CoconutCandy (Mon Sep 14 2009 11:59 AM)
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CoconutCandy
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
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Typhoon 'Choi-Wan' appears have undergone an eyewall replacement cycle in the past 6 hours or so. The rainband structure continues to develop impressively as the tropical storm force wind field expands significantly in all quadrants and central pressures head south of the border.
As of this writing (and things are changing quickly) Typhoon Choi-Wan has strengthened to 90 Kts. with estimated lowest pressure at 963 mb and falling steadily. Maximum sustained winds are now forecast to reach 125 Knots (145 mph) with gusts as high as 150 Knots (170 mph), ranking it as a Strong Cat 4 'Hurricane' on the Saffir-Simpson Scale of tropical cyclone intensity.
Comparing the following Passive Microwave Image with the one from above reveals just how significantly this cyclone has managed to organize over a relatively short time.
Notice, especially, the much more solid looking eyewall structure and the spiral rainbands that now completely encircle the inner core of the cyclone.
It will be interesting to follow the structure of Choi-Wan, as revealed by passive microwave imaging, over these next few days as this typhoon ramps up to strong Cat 4 or possible Cat 5 intensity.
The Guam Long-Range Doppler Radar shows (as of this hour) the spiral rainbanding in the SW quadrant of 'Choi-Wan' with the eyewall signature passing just outside the very limits of the long range scan.
For those interested in following the progress of 'Choi-Wan' are invited to check out the following links:
Guam Tropical Cyclone Main Page
Animated Color Enhanced Infrared Satellite Imagery
NRL Tropical Cyclone Main Page - Click on 'Choi-Wan' on the left side
Fortunately, Typhoon 'Choi-Wan' will be passing well to the north of Guam and Saipan and will be over open ocean as it attains its peak intensity in a few days and is likely to recurve at a safe distance west of Iwo Jima.
Edited by CoconutCandy (Mon Sep 14 2009 01:03 PM)
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vpbob21
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 115
Loc: Ohio
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Typhoon CHOI-WAN is rapidly becoming a monster. Winds are now up to 120 kts. (140 mph) and it is wobbling northwest slowly. It's about 140 miles NNE of Saipan and moving away. Winds at Saipan recently have been 20-30 mph with gusts to 40. It looks like the storm will pass very close to (if not over) the island of Alamagan within the next 12 hours. It should be a supertyphoon by then. In fact the latest forecast takes the winds up to 140 kts. (160 mph) in a day or two. The path has been consistently to the right of the forecast and it looks like there will be a significant threat to Iwo Jima in about 3 days.
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Justin
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 2
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Based on the trajectory, will it come anywhere close to Philippines or South China Sea? Taiwan cannot afford a second one after Morakot.
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vpbob21
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 115
Loc: Ohio
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No, no threat at all to the Philippines or Taiwan, it has made the expected turn to the north, heading in the general direction of Japan, but will turn northeast and away well before getting there. No longer a supertyphoon but still a formidable storm with 110 kt. (125 mph) winds. Should begin losing tropical characteristics in about 48 hours, then transition to a powerful low that should pass south of the Aleutians into the Gulf of Alaska during the 5-7 day period.
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georgemikal
Registered User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1
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thanks CoconutCandy for sharing blinks here
(In the future, please use the Personal Message capability for this type of post.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Apr 19 2010 11:21 PM)
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