berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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Quote:
I am wondering if Colin will end up being subtropical if/when it is classified. It just does not appear to be purely tropical in nature.
It is tropical but sheared. Subtropical and Hybrids are a whole other can of worms. Simply put there lock your leftovers in the refrigerator; they are a little of everything and generally are found in higher latitudes until late in the season as the westerlies make their way south as we transition to winter.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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As of 2 pm...70 percent chance of becoming a depression or storm....this is a tough call they'll be making....to either re-establish advisories or put it on hold. Satellite imagery continues to show a surface low and circulation with convection displaced to the east.; low level cumulus clearly are rotating around the surface low.
THE REMNANT OF COLIN IS A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 23N65W...OR ABOUT 415 NM TO THE SOUTH OF BERMUDA.
THE REMNANT OF COLIN IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 17 KT.
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE NORTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. SEA HEIGHTS RANGE FROM 10 FT TO 15 FT. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO 23N BETWEEN
62W AND 64W. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST TO THE
NORTH FROM 24N TO 25N BETWEEN 63W AND 64W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER THE WATERS FROM 17N
IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO 33N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN 54W AND 70W. SOME OF THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THIS
AREA OF CLOUDS HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN SOME AREAS OF THIS
CLOUDINESS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME
BETTER DEFINED. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS ENROUTE IN ORDER TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE CIRCULATION HAS
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM. THE CHANCE
THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS IS HIGH. RESIDENTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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It's fate is currently in the hands of recon which is really where it should be... short of sailing a boat around and trying to find Miss Cleo to divine if it is or isn't a Storm...
Recon does it's best and they are measuring and testing and if they find something they will have to figure out what do to with it... TD or any other designation.
Does have the winds but they are not wrapped neatly around the very visible swirl.
So many decisions to make in the next few hours...
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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ChrisS
Registered User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 9
Loc: Lake Buena Vista, FL
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Its interesting how Colin is hanging in there. Like a zombie storm that won't go away. It looks like it may pose a threat to Bermuda after all. I would think it wise for those with interests there to really be watchful the next 24-48 hours. If memory serves, was Colin the wave that started as Invest 90L and then disappeared and re-appeared as 91L? If so, this thing sure does have a habit of dying and being reincarnated.
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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AF Recon is in the system as we speak and there are tropical storm force winds in the system as observations are now coming in; though no vortex data as of yet...time index 05/2016Z.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Roger that... appears center is near Time: 19:32:00Z Coordinates:24.5333N 65.9167W... appears they have now closed off a low.. strong TS force winds on NE side of what i think is the center.
PS: this is a low level Invest... so there flying less then 1kft above surface and winds at 600ft are at TS force to the east and northeast of "center"...
It matches up with sat presentation... center is exposed to the west of convection... shear is winning at the momement.
Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Aug 05 2010 04:48 PM)
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Yes it looks like they have closed off a center to the west of the highest winds some in excess of 50mph. There is also another big blowup barely west of the center enough to where it is not visible anymore
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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according to the Bermuda Weather service (www.weather.bm) Colin has redeveloped and a Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 PM AST THU AUG 05 2010
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE REMNANTS OF COLIN HAVE DEVELOPED
SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND A WELL-ENOUGH DEFINED CENTER OF
CIRCULATION TO AGAIN BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
AIRCRAFT FOUND 500-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 50-52 KT AND SFMR WINDS
NEAR 40 KT EAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS...ADVISORIES ARE
RE-INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM COLIN AT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40
KT.
TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
2100 UTC THU AUG 05 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BERMUDA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 66.3W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 17 KT
Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 05 2010 05:51 PM)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Interesting that it hasn't been added/updated on 's home page. At least, I know now that my eyes have not been deceiving me over the last 24 hours. Is it me, or is the being a bit more cautious this year so far?
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Michael
PWS
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Interesting that it hasn't been added/updated on 's home page. At least, I know now that my eyes have not been deceiving me over the last 24 hours. Is it me, or is the being a bit more cautious this year so far?
The discussion for Colin states they are having internet issues. :
Quote:
INTERNET PROBLEMS WILL PREVENT THE WEB SITE FROM BEING UPDATED
AT THIS TIME. PLEASE SEE WEATHER.GOV FOR ADVISORY TEXT PRODUCTS.
We have copies of the advisories here (Front page) or on http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/stormhistory.php?storm=4&year=2010 (Click the forecaster name by the advisory to see the discussion).
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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As of 8:32pm EDT Advisories are now showing on the left sidebar. Advisory #8 was issued at 7:30pm EDT. I'll post the essential information here for those folowing the storm.
TROPICAL STORM COLIN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 PM AST THU AUG 05 2010
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL
STORM COLIN HAS STRENGTHENED...
AROUND 5 PM AST...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS IN TROPICAL STORM COLIN HAD INCREASED TO NEAR 60
MPH...WHICH IS SOONER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THEREFORE AN
UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY BY
8 PM AST. THIS WILL SUPERCEDE THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY PRODUCT.
NOTE: DUE TO NWS COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS...NHC WEB PAGE AND
RECONNAISSANCE INFORMATION ARE UNABLE TO UPDATE.
SUMMARY OF 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 66.2W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 330 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BROWN
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TROPICAL STORM COLIN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
730 PM AST THU AUG 05 2010
...THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO PRIMARILY UPDATE THE
INTENSITY AND WIND RADII FORECASTS.
SHORTLY AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY HAD BEEN ISSUED...AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM COLIN
REPORTED A 600-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 71 KT ABOUT 14 NMI NORTHEAST
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1005
MB WAS ALSO OBSERVED IN THE GENERAL VICINITY. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF
THESE VALUES WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL MESOVORTEX LOCATED
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH WOULD NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
LARGER-SCALE WIND FIELD. FOR THIS REASON...THE INTENSITY WAS
INITIALIZED AT 40 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH NEARBY SFMR WINDS.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE TIME OF THAT RECON REPORT...DEEP CONVECTION IN
THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF COLIN HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP CLOSER
TO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...WHICH JUSTIFIES INCREASING
THE INTENSITY TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS. SINCE A FORECAST INTENSITY OF 50 KT WAS NOT
EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL 48 HOURS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...A
SPECIAL ADVISORY WAS REQUIRED TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY AND TO
ADJUST THE INTENSITY FORECAST UPWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
ALSO...DROPSONDE DATA INDICATES AN EXPANSION OF THE 34-KT WIND
RADII IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT WAS NECESSARY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING
WERE MADE.
INTERNET PROBLEMS WILL PREVENT THE WEB SITE FROM BEING UPDATED
AT THIS TIME. PLEASE SEE WEATHER.GOV FOR ADVISORY TEXT PRODUCTS.
******************************************************
Asterisks denote separate product excerpts~danielw
I'm not sure if this has anything to do with the earlier data outage... but it could delay the model runs tonight. Just a possibility. Only anomaly message that I could find in the system.
NOUS42 KWNO 052048
ADMNFD
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS AVIATION WEATHER CENTER KANSAS CITY MO
2048 UTC THU AUG 05 2010 ( 4:48pm EDT transmission time)
BACKUP OF SDM/NCO/NCEP OPERATIONS IS IN EFFECT BY THE AVIATION
WEATHER CENTER IN KANSAS CITY MO. TOOK A POWER HIT THAT CUT
OFF CONNECTIVITY WITH THEM. PHONES AND ELECTRIC ARE DOWN. NO
ESTIMATED TIME FOR RECOVERY AT THIS TIME.
Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 05 2010 09:16 PM)
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
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New invest
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al932010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008060044
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2010, DB, O, 2010080600, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932010
AL, 93, 2010080500, , BEST, 0, 115N, 367W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010080506, , BEST, 0, 116N, 362W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010080512, , BEST, 0, 119N, 360W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010080518, , BEST, 0, 123N, 358W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010080600, , BEST, 0, 127N, 358W, 25, 1009, DB
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest
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Jara
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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on track and doing the same old dance... strong convection away from the center but a definite center and it has 60 mph winds
A lightning strike took out the system in Washington that the links through before it goes out... I guess it runs their website.. the 's website is back up now... so for a long time their site was not updated because it was ummm broken
the models might not be on time which would be a shame, can't wait to see the new the new model output with the recon data
new invest swims after Colin... fish if it develops as it follows colin up into the north atlantic
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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93L is up as well, but this is going to be another out to sea system.
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