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Archives 2010s >> 2010 News Talkbacks

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: 94L off the Florida East Coast [Re: EMS]
      #88752 - Sun Aug 08 2010 06:48 PM

I think perhaps you meant to say east? There is a mid-level low off the east coast of Florida and prior to some convective buildup a weak low level center of circulation was attempting to form at 08/21Z near 27.9N 80.1W - which would be about 30 to 35 miles just south of due east of Melbourne. The mid-level system has been moving south southwest (about 210 degrees) at 7 knots all day. Early model projections move the hybrid system across the peninsula and into the northern Gulf of Mexico, however the entire trough is rather complex. At the same time today a second counterclockwise spin was noted near 26N 83.5W in the Gulf - not all that uncommon for a weak potential development area. The best early model solutions based on current and past movement appear to be the BAMD and (surprisingly) the CMC. NHC does note that when the system gets into the Gulf there is some potential for it to acquire tropical characteristics.
ED


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WesnWylie
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc: 32.59N 96.70W
Re: 94L off the Florida East Coast [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #88753 - Sun Aug 08 2010 07:21 PM

I am seeing a spin off the coast of Western Florida on the latest satellite loop: http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellit...g&itype=vis . It is quite a ways into the GOM. I think we may have to monitor both sides of Florida as the area of convection extends across the entire region.

--------------------
2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
94L - 09/00Z Package [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #88755 - Mon Aug 09 2010 02:17 AM

As of 09/0600Z - Surface Analysis has a frontal system with a NW-SE axis extending from AR through S MS, extreme SE LA into the GOM where a low is analyzed near 27N 86W in the convective complex in the GOM to across Central FL with a weak low pressure (94L) well offshore. This low is progged to move SW towards Daytona Beach, FL by Monday night.

Wind Shear analysis has winds north to south between 20 and 30 knots from W FL to a bullseye of 30 knot winds over the Bahamas; however very light shear near the first frontal low with convection being generated.

There is an upper level low depicted at 850 mbs over the eastern coastline of FL to the Central Bahamas at 700 mbs and 500 mbs and in the SE Bahamas at 300 mbs and higher. This entire upper level low and axis is inverted generally along a north to south axis and models move this feature west towards LA in 72 to 96 hours.

Other features - Thee is an upper level low centered over San Antonio, TX. This feature was near the Bay of Campeche a few days ago and continues to move NNW at this time. This upper low is interacting with an old frontal boundary mentioned above over TX, OK, AR.

Mid Continental upper ridge remains anchored over TX and OK with ULL beneath it. Ridge axis extends generally along 90W longitude and south to thd Yucatan.

East coast longwave trough is progressing eastward and extends to offshore NC/SC border and from there inverts into the cutoff low mentioned above.

I have doubts about 94L being tropical...at this time. The proximity of the ULL may in fact be only a surface reflection; however climatology and dying frontal systems in the GOM and Atlantic Ocean do birth tropical cyclones. There is a great deal of subsidence and dry air behind the east coast trough.

The problem I have with 94L is the ULL is forecast to travel towards LA over the next few days. While tropical cyclones can form under ULL they don't do well with a ULL riding shotgun. Shear between upper ridges and upper lows are the main concern and I would like to get a gauge on where that ULL over the Bahamas is going.

Last year the numbers were down due to a chaotic atmosphere and a gazillion TUTT lows and I'm looking at the same thing again this year.

I would be remiss if I didn't mention a kind word about Ed, I share his opinion about the atmosphere being as chaotic this year as it were last year. There are a lot of upper level lows in the Tropics once again this year and upper level lows mean gradience and thus shear.

The area I believe that bears watching is in the Gulf of Mexico right now and the frontal low on the front near 27N 86W.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

Edited by berrywr (Mon Aug 09 2010 02:21 AM)


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 944
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: 94L - 09/00Z Package [Re: berrywr]
      #88758 - Mon Aug 09 2010 09:56 AM

Good morning, the RGB seems to indicate that a low level circulation is trying to close off in the northern Bahamas.. Presently there is cyclonic spin along a NNW-SSE elongated axis that is just off the Florida east coast. The convection is consolidated in the Bahamas through the keys and out into the GOM along the frontal trough. At the northern apex of the convection in the Bahamas, I think one can make out a closing off of the circulation. I think it will take several hours to confirm that, but otherwise the circulatiion is very elongated, and trough like. I do not see any evidence of a circulation in the central GOM, and all organizational activity, if that is what is going on, is in relation to the convection in the Bahamas. I see no reason to suspect that development would be anything other than tropical in nature, based on the climatological environment surrounding the mass of weather.

--------------------
doug


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Recon Plans [Re: doug]
      #88759 - Mon Aug 09 2010 10:18 AM

Noon EDT departure for the INVEST flight on Tuesday. (corrected day of week for flight.)

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, National Hurricane Center, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 09 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-071

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA - GULF OF MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 10/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 10/1600Z
D. 26.0N 84.0W
E. 10/1730 - 2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 11/0600Z -1200Z
B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
C. 11/0430Z
D. 27.0N 85.5W
E. 11/0500 -1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6 HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

*****************************************************
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
420 AM EDT MON AUG 09 2010
(excerpts~danielw)
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHERN EXTENSION OF TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 95W IN BAY
OF CAMPECHE.

LOW PRES EXPECTED TO SPIN OFF FRONTAL TROUGH OVER NORTH FLORIDA.
MODELS CONSENSUS SHOW MUCH MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER
EASTERN GULF MON AND MOVING W TOWARD LOUISIANA THU. GFS WEAKER
AND FARTHER E. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD COMPROMISE BETWEEN ECMWF
AND GFS TRACK WHICH BRING LOW PRES NEAR 29N82W AND MOVES IT INTO
FAR NE GULF BEFORE CARRYING IT INTO FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
30N85W EARLY WED.


Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 09 2010 12:47 PM)


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Jasonch
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 42
Loc: Texas 30.36N 94.18W
Re: TD Colin Almost History - Invest 94L Forms Off Florida East Coast [Re: MikeC]
      #88760 - Mon Aug 09 2010 01:53 PM

The NHC gives 94L 30% chance of developement in the gulf of mexico but I feel that is being very generous at this time. it has along way to go and it isn't purely tropical either.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
New System in the Caribbean?? [Re: danielw]
      #88761 - Mon Aug 09 2010 02:24 PM Attachment (191 downloads)

Latest visible imagery indicating a lone convective system in the Mid Caribbean Sea. Rapid convective buildup. Just another area to watch off and on.

Image centered at Latitude= 14.73° N Longitude= 69.44° W (X=416 Y=298)
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

Cyclic convection over the last few hours. Appears to be in a Coll between ridges and lows... read that as no obvious shear in the area right now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-l.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

See Attached WV Satellite Image 1745Z above.

8:45AM EDT


1145AM EDT



Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 09 2010 03:17 PM)


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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
Re: New System in the Caribbean?? [Re: danielw]
      #88762 - Mon Aug 09 2010 02:31 PM

yeah i saw that. looks like a mini storm. nice little flare up as well on the 17:45 loop. also, what is the deal with this low? it doesnt know what its doing.

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Jasonch
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 42
Loc: Texas 30.36N 94.18W
Re: New System in the Caribbean?? [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #88763 - Mon Aug 09 2010 02:45 PM

I just noticed this area in the caribbean too. It really caught my eye as WOW, where did that come from. A very rapid blow up of convection and a very nice semetric look. It does look like a mini storm on the increase. Well just have to wait and see.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: New System in the Caribbean?? [Re: danielw]
      #88764 - Mon Aug 09 2010 02:55 PM

This is the same circulation that was noted yesterday in the Sunday Update to the Main Page leadoff article. Its going through another convective pulse. Its a small system, but it has managed to hold together for over 24 hours.
ED


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Jasonch
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 42
Loc: Texas 30.36N 94.18W
Re: New System in the Caribbean?? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #88765 - Mon Aug 09 2010 02:57 PM

Quote:

This is the same circulation that was noted yesterday in the Sunday Update to the Main Page leadoff article. Its going through another convective pulse. Its a small system, but it has managed to hold together for over 24 hours.
ED


Is there any possibility for developement.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Admin Note [Re: Jasonch]
      #88766 - Mon Aug 09 2010 03:15 PM

Your answer is on the Main Page leadoff article for this thread. Since we don't like to duplicate posts, just go back and read it. A kind reminder that CFHC is not a chat room, it is a Forum-oriented discussion.
ED


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Fairhopian
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 26
Loc: 30.53N 87.89W
Re: TD Colin Almost History - Invest 94L Forms Off Florida East Coast [Re: Jasonch]
      #88767 - Mon Aug 09 2010 03:26 PM

The broad surface low centered in the Eastern Gulf (which may never become tropical) has really been pumping out the moisture/convection in the direction of the northern extension of the tropical wave along 95W in the Bay of Campeche (f/k/a 92L). The barely detectable cyclonic feature once associated with 92L appears to be currently centered near 94W, 24N. As best I have been able to observe, the center of that feature slowed and curved a little more northward over the past day or two, since it left the Yucatan, and did not cross into Northern Mexico. In other words . . . I think there is still something there. So my question is: Could some of the moisture in the Gulf coming from the North and East wrap into former 92L and regenerate it?

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: TD Colin Almost History - Invest 94L Forms Off Florida East Coast [Re: Fairhopian]
      #88768 - Mon Aug 09 2010 04:09 PM

I can't locate the system that you refer to, but in any case it would need to be much better organized than what it shows now, i.e., an influx of moisture probably wouldn't help it much. Water Vapor suggests that there is already adequate moisture throughout that area and a weak anticyclonic circulation aloft.
ED


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 944
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: TD Colin Almost History - Invest 94L Forms Off Florida East Coast [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #88769 - Mon Aug 09 2010 04:23 PM

Current radar would suggest a low center in the waters off Monroe County, 10, 000 Islands area.
Heavy rain in SE Fort myers right now.

--------------------
doug


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: TD Colin Almost History - Invest 94L Forms Off Florida East Coast [Re: doug]
      #88772 - Mon Aug 09 2010 05:00 PM Attachment (195 downloads)

think this is where 94L is located... broad and with a lot of dry air aloft above the surface reflection.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_GULF/anim16vis.html

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satmaster.pl?Florida

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Aug 09 2010 05:03 PM)


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