Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2090
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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UPDATE - Tuesday, June 28th, 10PM EDT
TS , the first of the season, develops in the central Bay of Campeche as convection has increased and pressure has decreased. is moving to the west northwest at 6 knots and this general motion should continue with an eventual turn to the west on Thursday. Landfall now anticipated on Thursday afternoon in the vicinity of Tampico. With windshear on the decline to the north of the system, some additional intensification is possible prior to landfall.
Original Post
Invest 95L located west of Campeche on the Yucatan Peninsula near 19.4N 91.6W at 28/00Z with winds of 20-25kts and pressure at 1006MB. Movement is to the west northwest at about 6kts. The system is embedded in a small area of light windshear and the pressure is falling with the center now over SSTs of 28C in the Bay of Campeche. now gives the system a 50% chance of becoming a Tropical Depression with landfall anticipated near or south of Tampico on the east coast of Mexico Wednesday evening - possibly as a 40kt Tropical Storm.
Proximity to land and stronger upper level shear to the immediate north of the system could make any additional development a rather slow process. The first name on the list this year is - but this system still is in its early stages. Regardless of development, the main threat from this system will be heavy rains, flooding and landslides over the Yucatan, Guatemala and southeast Mexico.
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Jun 28 2011 10:32 PM)
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1023
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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A rather interesting bit of trivia... Here is Tropical Storm Alex, on June 28, 2010
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2090
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Arlene still heading for the area near and south of Tampico as a strong tropical storm - a solid core structure is still lacking. Landfall likely around late morning on Thursday. As of 30/00Z, warnings are as follows:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO LA CRUZ
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA AND FROM PALMA SOLA SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ
ED
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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All storms should be this easy to track. An "A" storm in the BOC this time of year is as par for the course as it gets. That said it does not mitigate any minor flooding or other problems serious or otherwise. Won't be surprised if she flirts with Hurricane status by landfall though I would think a strong TS.
Enjoying the coverage on this website and it's excellent resources, just saying.
This pattern won't last forever, focusing on now but it will change a bit down the road.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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