danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Update - July 9th, 6:30PM EDT
Flhurricane has moved to a new server setup with Hostdime.com, and includes the beginnings of a new layout. The new server setup will enable some of the new features planned for the site. There has been a minor site redesign in the process, but more is coming.
Currently there is nothing active in the Atlantic basin.
Update - July 7th, 11PM EDT
The system in the Gulf (96L) looks more disorganized tonight but still has a 40% chance for development over the next two days. If it does, it will likely be subtropical in nature and not very strong.
Either way it will bring plenty of rain to Florida, and will likely cause the final shuttle launch to be delayed.
Those along the gulf coast will want to continue to monitor this system.
Northeast Gulf Links
Southeast Composite Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Tampa Bay, FL Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Key West, FL Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Mobile, AL Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Tallahassee FL Radar Radar Loop
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Northwest Florida Radar Radar Loop
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Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery
SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track
Area Forecast Discussions:
New Orleans -
Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola -
Panhandle/Tallahassee -
Tampa/West Central Florida
96L Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2011&storm=2 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 96L
GOES Floater
Animated Model Plot of 96L
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 96L
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 96L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of 96L
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 96L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 96L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Update - July 7th, Noon
A tropical wave has moved through the Florida Straits into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and a weak low, probably subtropical in nature, has formed at the surface. The system has been designated as Invest 96L and some additional development is possible for the next day or two as the system moves toward the northeast Gulf coast. See the Storm Forum for additional information.
ED
Original Post - July 4th, 8:18AM
Watching two main areas this morning, and two other areas.
1) Just off of the Southern Jamaican Coast a large convective complex has formed. Early images indicate little or no shear in the area.
2) Area near the Turks and Caicos islands. Not a lot to be seen there.
3) Large amplitude tropical wave moving through the Lower Bahamas and Florida Straits.
4) ULLs located just North of the Yucatan Peninsula and about 300 miles east of Jacksonville,FL
Edited by MikeC (Sun Jul 10 2011 08:27 AM)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Well, that certainly draws my attention to the area near Jamaica quite nicely. I haven't checked, but have the models grabbed onto it yet? (off to look at the model runs)
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Michael
PWS
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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 150
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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and what is a 'ULL"?
thanks!
Oops. A ULL is an Upper Level Low. Area in the mid to upper levels that rotates counterclockwise.
Not normally conducive for tropical cyclone formation.
See the ghost looking swirls in the water vapor, WV, image above.
ULL located near the Yucatan Peninsula and another about 300 miles due east of Jacksonville,FL.
Specific areas of ULLs can and do allow cyclones to form. And can assist the cyclone in developing.
Edited by danielw (Mon Jul 04 2011 11:51 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I honestly haven't checked the models yet. As they have been on the 'no formation' side since . The Canadian was indicating a tropical depression type system moving along the Peninsula. One run was in the GOM and the next run was along the FL East Coast.
Latest visible of the region. 3 hours elapsed since the water vapor image above.
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quick check of the and Canadian models.
GFS and Canadian take the thunderstorms currently in the Jamaica area toward the Yucatan Peninsula and the BOC. Little or no development noted... at this time.
Area near the Turks and Caicos Islands. The Canadian model develops this slowly over the next 90 hours,( from 8 PM EDT last night), slowly spins it up just off of the Florida EAST Coast and takes it up the Atlantic Coast toward Cape Cod,MA.
The Canadian has been consistent with this low level system for about 4 days now. Canadian has been known to create false systems in the past.
These comments are based off of model runs, a probably should be in the Forecast Lounge. But they tie in with the above satellite photos.
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JoshuaK
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 159
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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The area of convection off Jamacia has pretty well died down tonight, but the area off the Turks and Caicos is firing up in convection. The ULL in the GOM is heading for the northern Gulf Coast, and the only other thing I see interesting out in the Atlantic is an imminent collision between two ULLs.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Convection flare up near Turks/Caicos area this AM. Looks like light shear over the area, too. shows the wave, but doesn't develop it. and both seem to want to develop something along the Eastern Seaboard in a few days. Whether that would be tropical or mid-lat is anyone's guess, though.
Edit: Convection has decreased a bit in the latest vis pics.
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Michael
PWS
Edited by MichaelA (Tue Jul 05 2011 11:00 AM)
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WesnWylie
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc:
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Quite a bit of convection is being generated on the eastern side of the upper-level low in the GOM. Do you guys think this feature has a chance at some development? The models hinted at it there for a while, but not so much now. If the shear was lower, I think it would have a low chance at development, but right now, the shear is too strong. The NWS in Ft. Worth also discussed the possibility of this upper-level low spinning up a few days ago.
Edited by WesnWylie (Wed Jul 06 2011 10:35 AM)
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tcatron565
Registered User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2
Loc:
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Definitely keeping an eye on south western Florida/Cuba. Also the Virgin Islands area has caught my eye.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Apparently is looking for some development with the Tropical Wave moving into the SE GOM.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, National Hurricane Center, MIAMI, FL.
0915 AM EDT THU 07 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z JULY 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-037
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 08/1700Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 08/1530Z
D. 28.2N 85.0W
E. 08/1630Z TO 08/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT -- TEAL 71
A. 09/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 09/0430Z
D. 29.4N 84.8W
E. 09/0530Z TO 09/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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It looks like there may be some low or mid-level cyclonic turning, but the shear is pretty limiting this morning. The models aren't showing much interest in developing this in the Gulf, but a couple seem to indicate something developing near the outer banks in the long term. Worth the watching and for the potential rain over much of the FL peninsula (much needed). Hopefully SE Georgia will get some significant rain, too.
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Michael
PWS
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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At the least there should be some beneficial rainfall from the system.
The whole Peninsula could used a good soaking.
For that matter the whole SE US could use a good soaking.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The visible loop of the area in the SE GOM appears to be spinning up from the surface.
While the circular cumulus clouds indicate a mid level circulation the loop shows a small vortice near the surface.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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I was just about to comment that a vortex may be near 25N/85/W as there is low level cyclonic movement in the rain pattern, and the upper level water vapor is showing a suspicious signature, even on the east side of the ULL center. This set up is not conducive for development or much intensification due to upper level shear from the ULL. The has been tracking a surface trough (wave), but my thought was the distrubed weather on the east side of the ULL was diffluent flow between the ULL and the higher pressure to its east. Certainly a weak low level circulation will enhance instability and increase rain chances across the peninsula for which we all will be grateful, however.
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doug
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WesnWylie
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc:
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If the vortex you mentioned near 25N/85W is the LLC, wouldn't that indicate a more westward track for 96L than what the recent model runs indicate? http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=96&a=2
BTW, it appears that it is battling dry air to its west (near the ).
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2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01
Edited by WesnWylie (Thu Jul 07 2011 11:38 AM)
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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There looks to be a weak surface low near 25.5N 85.1W. But the pressure doesn't seem to be all that low right now. The shear will likely stay for a bit, so it'll be a nasty weekend around a good chunk of Florida. And brings shuttle launch chances down quite a bit.
It may be around 48 hours, that said I doubt it develops.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Station PLSF1 - Pulaski Shoal Light, FL
3:00 pm SSW ( 207 deg ) 28 kts
2:50 pm SSW ( 207 deg ) 32 kts
2:40 pm SSW ( 207 deg ) 31 kts
2:30 pm SW ( 223 deg ) 13 kts
2:20 pm SW ( 236 deg ) 11 kts
2:10 pm SW ( 236 deg ) 12 kts
2:42 pm SSW ( 210 deg ) 38 kts
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 383
Loc: Plant City, Florida
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First significant rain from this feature just hitting my position now and it is a rapidly developing heavy line of showers. There appears to be a nw-se dividing line right down the middle of the state with the heavier rain to the east and thus progressing westward. It could be hitting some sea-breeze interaction but really shows how much moisture and instability are over us right now in this deep moist eastward flow around the top of the ULL. Our rain the past week has been heavy in some places and very light in others so someone needs this - I do!!
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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JMII
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 489
Loc: Margate, Florida
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On Wednesday and Thursday here in S FL we got soaked and I noticed the rain was spinning up from the Keys entering from the SE and moving NW across the state exiting around Tampa. A SE flow is normal for this time of year but there was clearly something more to it. Its all but dried up today but we really need the rain judging by the lake behind my house.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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