MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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A wave off the coast of Africa, already vigorous is being tracked as 92L. This system has a even shot at recurve or no recurve before the us right now, but some models keep it weak for days. It is very likely another weak, borderline storm may form out of this. But at this far out it is anyone's guess.
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DESteve
Registered User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 3
Loc: Odessa, DE
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Wow That was pretty quick..
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DESteve
Registered User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 3
Loc: Odessa, DE
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Question with that particular wave and the one behind it possibly merge ?
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2088
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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The SAL (dry and dusty airmass) has been quite active this month - making it difficult for a wave to develop as it crosses the Atlantic.
Saharan Air Layer 5-Day Timelapse
ED
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DESteve
Registered User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 3
Loc: Odessa, DE
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Ya I know.. what comes with that strong high funnels the dry air.. have to wait for the waves to run out to about 45W or so..
As side note you see that one wave out at ~12 and 47 ?
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 788
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
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I picked up on that yesterday. Something to keep an eye on as well as the one farther East.
EDIT: Just looked at the water vapor loop and the one near 12N; 48W is surrounded by dry air.
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Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual:
Edited by MichaelA (Sun Aug 07 2011 03:35 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2088
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Invest 92L, although appearing weaker, still has a circulation evident at about 12N 24W. Movement is west at 10 knots. has not posted new coordinates in 18 hours.
ED
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 788
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
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Quote:
Invest 92L, although appearing weaker, still has a circulation evident at about 12N 24W. Movement is west at 10 knots. has not posted new coordinates in 18 hours.
ED
If it can hold itself together for a couple of days and reach the Central Atlantic and warmer water, it might have a chance to develop. As usual, these relatively strong waves moving off the African coast tend to weaken and remain so until they move into a more conducive environment if they do so at all.
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Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual:
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Most of the models show a recurve of 92L with the execption of the 06Z , and FIM (Along with the Euro which has a near miss to the east of the coast).
Odds are currently favoring a recurve on this system and anything immediately behind it. with the caveat of monitoring how strong the ridge is, even so it would still likely recurve before landfall given the current conditions. Still much too early to confirm it though.
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2088
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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The 5-day
NHC/TAFB Experimental Gridded Marine Forecast Model also keeps it on more of a westerly heading, except that its hard to tell if the lead system is 92L or if the following system is 92L or a future 93L. The 06Z also tracks dual systems.
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Aug 10 2011 07:50 AM)
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delia6667
Registered User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 6
Loc: St. Thomas, US Virgin Islands
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Hi.
I live in St. Thomas, US Virgin Islands, so am going to keep a watch on invest 92L and possibly soon to be 93L. However, after being here for over 3 years, it seems the Virgin Islands are in an area that tropical storms and hurricanes just do not like. Storms, regardless of their intensity, either skirt to our North or South. Shame really, love a good storm.
I already see, where many computer models have Invest 92L going to our North. No surprise there.
Delia
St. Thomas, US Virgin Islands
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 788
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
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92L is the weaker of the two systems and the models are tending toward that scenario - keeping 92L rather weak and out to sea.
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Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual:
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 773
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
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The second wave, 93L, visibly is more well organized. If it is disproportionaly stronger, might that create an inhibition to 92L organizing at all? The may be far enough apart (600+ miles) so no effect may occur, but it seems that it is playing an interferring role right now.
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doug
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
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Another interesting thing is to the west of 92L. That is what was once the MLC of Emily that separated from the LLC a couple of days ago and is now coming back around the High underneath. I've not seen much mentioned of it but it is starting to fire convection and is back over warm water. It also might be moistening things out front as well
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
Edited by WeatherNut (Fri Aug 12 2011 01:04 AM)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 788
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
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Quote:
Another interesting thing is to the west of 92L. That is what was once the MLC of Emily that separated from the LLC a couple of days ago and is now coming back around the High underneath. I've not seen much mentioned of it but it is starting to fire convection and is back over warm water. It also might be moistening things out front as well
The interaction between that and 92L may cause 92L to recurve sooner than later. 92L's lateral speed could also be a detriment to its potential for significant development, although it looks fairly well this morning.
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Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual:
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 788
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
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I'm not seeing a definite location to 92L this morning. It seems to me that it is sheared from SE to NW with a poorly defined LLC near 17N; 44W and a rather prominent MLC near 18N; 45.5W. Unless the LLC is going to align under that MLC, I don't foresee any rapid development.
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Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual:
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
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Looks like the ghost of Emily past (not sure which 9XL it is there are so many right now) is looking more organized than 92L. I think this is a better option to develop.
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 773
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
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The current RGB on 92L suggests it has organized around a LLC which I would estimate at 18.7/47.2. I watched several frames and the center may have formed when it was at 18.2/46.2 which would make the motion WNW. It is moving along fairly quickly toward classification, IMO.
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doug
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