93L improving but not upgraded tonight. 50% chance for development in the next 48 hours.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 110 (Arthur)
, in Florida:
3285 (8 y 11 m) (Wilma)
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Loc: Melbourne, FL
At 5PM EDT, Hurricane Irene was located near Abaco Island, Bahamas, at 27.0N 77.3W (about 575 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina) moving to the north northwest at 14mph with sustained winds near the center of 115mph gusting to 135mph (Category III). Central pressure was down to 950MB (28.05"). Last night the turn to the north northwest did not occur as soon as anticipated and the forecast track has been adjusted westward. Irene is now expected to pass about 175 miles to the east northeast of Melbourne around 1AM Friday morning as a Category III Hurricane with sustained winds near the center of 125mph (still a Category III).
Winds on the east central Florida Barrier Islands out of the North at 35-45mph with a few gusts to 50mph later this evening. Winds along the east central Florida I-95 corridor out of the north at 30-40mph with a few gusts to 45mph. Rain squalls from the outer bands of Hurricane Irene will continue to move ashore this evening and tonight. Extensive damage has been reported from several of the islands in the Bahamas including Long Island, Eleuthera and Abaco.
Irene is now expected to turn more to the north and eventually north northeast, with landfall in eastern North Carolina near Morehead City as a strong Cat II Hurricane Saturday afternoon and move north northeast right along the coast of Delaware Sunday morning as a strong Category I Hurricane and move just inland of the New Jersey coast as a Category I Hurricane Sunday afternoon. Irene will continue north northeastward passing just west of New York City by late afternoon / early evening on Sunday with sustained winds of 75mph and move north along the New York / Massachusetts border Sunday evening - as a strong Tropical Storm with sustained winds of 60mph gusting to 75mph. Irene continues into northern Vermont Monday morning - still a Tropical Storm. The westward adjusted track will mean a stronger storm from North Carolina to New Jersey and a slightly weaker storm in New England - especially eastern New England.
Adjust the track of Hurricane Gloria (September, 1985) a little to the west and you'll have a good idea of what to expect from Hurricane Irene.
Unisys - Hurricane Gloria Track - September, 1985
Continue to monitor the northward progress of Hurricane Irene for any additional changes and follow the advice of your local Emergency Management officials.
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