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Archives >> 2012 Forecast Lounge

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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Tropical "Blob" over S. Florida
      #92481 - Sun Apr 29 2012 02:12 PM

Hmmmm, a sign of things to come??

On one hand, am always looking at possible indications of where I believe the long wave pattern and TUTT conditions may tip off areas of development and general motion for the upcoming early Hurricane Season. And, if this were a few weeks later, this system over S. Florida might be a bit more interesting. Couple other observations though, most of the Gulf SST's and much of the Central & Western Atlantic SST's are both unimpressive and cool. Also, GFS 200 mb. forecast would indicate no let up in pretty strong upper air conditions, even in the lower latitudes.

Am looking at the latest 12Z GFS, and looks little a very small window for perhaps a weak surface low to form in the near term. Upper air is not good ( accept to the north and east ) and looks to become less difluent Monday night/Tue. am. Also, water vapor would indicate that subsidence appears to be on the increase in the Central/Southern Gulf. This bit of dryer air wrapping in from the S.W. and West won't be helping the cause. There could be a case for some type of center appearing on radar East of Marathon, however one could make a case for at least one more point of turning and rather think these areas to be more or less transient areas of vorticity. My guess is that a broader "sloppy" ( and very weak ) low may become slightly more evident to appear to cover the majority of the middle/lower keys. However, would guess that such a surface reflection would drift or move generally westward and with upper winds hardly permitting convection to wrap around the west side, this would seem to hinder much opportunity for deepening.

Gotta be rough for local mets to forecast, given the relative range in conditions over S. Florida. Here in W. Broward, we have no doubt received a minimum of 3" over the last 36 hours. Radar appears to show the northern extent of the present rain shield to be moving south and temporarily impacting points north of Ft. Lauderdale less than earlier. I think this overal system will start to take on an increasingly stretched east/west orientation by sometime late Monday and start to lose most of its sub-tropical appearance by early Tuesday. Starting now, I could see parts of Miami-Dade/upper Keys may get 4-6" more rain, but N. Broward less than 2" and lower Keys even less.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2333
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Tropical "Blob" over S. Florida [Re: weathernet]
      #92482 - Sun Apr 29 2012 05:06 PM

From the MLB FCST Discussion:
"TONIGHT-MON...MID LEVEL CYCLONE VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLOCKED BY ANTICYCLONE CENTERED VICINITY OF
SOUTH GEORGIA. THIS WILL KEEP DEEP MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA WITH A SHARP SOUTH TO NORTH POP GRADIENT
CONTINUING."

At 29/20Z the mid-level circulation was evident at about 24.5N 80.7W. The mid level low is weak and was a reflection from an upper level low that is expected to become an open trough. The system would drift north or northwest except that the ridge over north Florida and southern Georgia extends into the Gulf of Mexico and is expected to remain firm. Lots of tropical moisture, but its an extratropical system. The system has expanded a bit and a few light rainshowers have made it up to the Cape area while south of Miami the shower movement has become more south to north with activity in extreme south Florida currently remaining offshore. Given the extreme drought over much of the Florida peninsula, its certainly a pre-season feature thats worth monitoring.
ED


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Tropical "Blob" over S. Florida [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92485 - Mon Apr 30 2012 07:53 PM

I've been watching the Blob off and on for a few days. It seems to be ingesting some dry air. And the convection is diminishing in coverage and intensity.

Latest Wavewatch model run has winds in the 29-32kt range over the next few hours on both side of the Southern FL Peninsula. They drop off after the 'core' of the winds moves to the NW near Buoy 42003. Seas are forecast to peak at 4-5 meters/ 12-15 feet around Midnight tonight, again in the vicinity of Buoy 42003.

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/viewer.shtml?-multi_1-gmex-

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
225 PM EDT MON APR 30 2012 edited~danielw

FARTHER EAST...THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM A LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS...
ACROSS CUBA TO HONDURAS. THE TROUGH IS LIFTING OVER A WANING CELL
OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE AS THE LATTER EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TO THE WEST IS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE LIFTING OVER
WANING CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LONG
FETCH WESTERLY FLOW TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH 30-36
HRS. THIS IS TO THEN PERSIST THROUGH 72-96 HRS. AT MID
LEVELS...THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN TO A SHEAR AXIS THAT IS TO EXTEND
EAST-TO-WEST ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH
AXIS TO REMAIN NORTH OF PUERTO RICO-HISPANIOLA WHILE ALSO GRAZING
NORTHERN CUBA.

AT LOW LEVELS...THE INITIALLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SUSTAIN AN
INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN-CUBA. THIS WILL EXTEND
NORTH FROM NORTHEAST HONDURAS TO WESTERN CUBA. AS THE MID/UPPER
TROUGH PATTERN WEAKENS...THE LOW LEVEL/INDUCED TROUGH IS ALSO TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THROUGH 48-60 HRS IT WILL FILL AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE YUCATAN. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA. OVER THE BAHAMAS EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY THROUGH
36HRS...AND 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY THEREAFTER. ACROSS
CUBA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM/DAY...WITH MAXIMA OF 30-60MM CONCENTRATING OVER EASTERN
CUBA EARLY IN THE CYCLE.

I'm not accustomed to the Caribbean Desk giving two separate levels of analysis. Nice!

Edited by danielw (Mon Apr 30 2012 08:32 PM)


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