Central Florida Hurricane Center 2012

Update 2PM EDT 06/21/2012
The area in the Gulf is now being tracked as Invest 96L, with chances for development at 50%. There is still quite a bit of disagreement in the models, but more biased toward the western Gulf at this run. Still not organized enough for any confidence, though.
Any development will take a bit to get going. For more speculation on 96L, see the Forecast Lounge.

96L Event Related Links

Animated Model Plot of 96L
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 96L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 96L Clark Evans Track Plot of 96L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 96L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 96L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Update 11AM EDT 06/21/2012
Based on impressive satellite intensity estimates, continued structural improvement, and a complete Windsat pass that showed widespread 60-70MPH winds in all quadrants as early as 4:46AM today, Chris has been formally upgraded to a 75MPH hurricane, and this could be conservative.

Hurricane Chris is forecast to loop around an approaching larger extratropical cyclone, and at some point within the next few days, become absorbed by that feature. Water temps continue easing along its forecast path, but Chris is expected to remain a hurricane or strong tropical storm for at least another 6-12 hours, and then slowly undergo absorption.

The trough in the Gulf of Mexico is plagued by shear, which has actually been on the increase over the past 24 hours, preventing anything from really taking hold at the surface. A region that is not as riddled with shear is confined to the southwestern to southern Gulf, also where the trough axis has been interacting with some of the remaining energy from a portion of eastern Pacific's x-Hurricane Carlotta. If anything is to develop today or tomorrow, this would now be the more favored area.
Ciel

Update 7AM EDT 06/21/2012
Chris Continues in the open Atlantic, Yucatan/Gulf System Still Disorganized

Tropical Storm Chris is continuing to move out in the open Atlantic, keeping a fairly good strength but is about to move into cooler waters and eventually becoming extratropical. Chris' position is very unusual for June.

The broad system near the Yucatan continues to confound the models, with bits of the ensembles taking them in various ways. The short answer is that it will bring some rain to Florida later today, but likely less than yesterday as it continues to organize. It is still much to broad a low area to be considered an invest, and until something materializes it will be difficult to rely on the models, however much of the Gulf Coast, leaning toward the Central and Eastern/Florida Gulf coasts needs to continue to watch this system.

Initial development of the system, if it occurs, will be slow and gradual as upper level winds in the Gulf are currently not good for development, and the air north of Florida is full of dry continental air.

It currently has a 30% chance to develop within the next two days. Based on ship reports in the area it may get a shot to become an "invest" later today, and possibly develop in 48-72 hours.

Update 7PM EDT 06/20/2012
Active Early Start to 2012 Continues

Tropical Storm Chris Still Strengthening
As of the 5PM Advisory, Tropical Storm Chris was upgraded to a 60MPH Tropical Storm. Since that time, additional satellite images show an incipient eye that appears to have become a fully developed eye, complete with some degree of stadium effect, although it is not cleared out.

Chris has more or less taken on the look of a classic high latitude marginal hurricane.

Given that from this distance all we can do is rely on limited data and satellite intensity estimates, it is challenging to determine if hurricane force winds are actually occurring at the surface, but suffice it to say, Chris looks really impressive for the time of year and location.

Chris 2012-06-20 2115 UTC

Northwest Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico Trough
Much closer to home, and of increasing concern, is a stubborn trough that is blowing up several mesoscale convective systems, as well as a general scattering of showers and thunderstorms, throughout the northwestern Caribbean and much of the Gulf of Mexico.

Global models and several of the specialized hurricane models create one or more significant weather makers out of this feature, possibly in the form of tropical cyclones. At present, there is a large spread as to what exactly will form, how many will form, and where it (or they) will go, but it does seem clear that whatever comes of this, Florida is likely to pick up some more tropical rains this week at the very least. All other locations right along the Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Caribbean are also likely to pick up some inclement weather, as well.

This feature has not yet been Invest tagged, but we are monitoring it closely.
Ciel

Original Post
An area usually not known for June storms, the North Central Atlantic, has a new named system, Tropical Storm Chris. The 3rd storm for the 2012 season, and the earliest "C" named storm on record in the Atlantic since 1959 and 1887. This is the 3rd storm this season that has not had a "pure tropical", (ie from a classical tropical wave) formation. Chris also formed from a former cold front, and is borderline tropical.

This area should remain well out to sea and not affect land.

Another area currently over Cuba may be worth watching, it hasn't been tagged as an invest area yet, and chances for development are low (10%), but it should be monitored as it moves into the Gulf.

Models (usually unreliable at this stage) suggest that this system may split with some energy heading westward toward Texas, and others toward Florida. A potential rainmaker for some areas in the Gulf. Florida likely will see better rainfall chances Wednesday night into Thursday. It is something to keep aware of over the next few days.

North Gulf Links North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West: