Central Florida Hurricane Center 2012

Update 4:30PM EDT June 30, 2012
Not much happening in the Atlantic basin, as any and all disturbances are both currently too weak and not in favorable environments for intensification. Even the previously most promising feature, Invest 97L, has been all but wiped out. Now is probably a good time to take advantage of this lull to make sure the household is prepared in case of a hit, as usually the busiest part of a season would still be ahead.
Ciel

Update 10:00PM EDT June 29, 2012
A tropical wave well east of the Caribbean is now being tracked as Invest 97L. Presently, this feature is not robust, and while conditions are not unfavorable for further development, they are not particularly favorable, either, and thus it only has low (20%) chances of becoming a tropical cyclone over the weekend.

If it does not develop this weekend and gain latitude, there is potential for 97L to be traveling westward over some warmer waters while entering a region of more favorable upper level winds when in the Caribbean.

Closer still, convection has been firing today with a weak disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico. Most of this convection appears to be the result of the diffluent flow aloft created by an upper level low over central Texas. Currently, there is no indication of turning at the surface, pressures are not falling by much, and convection is diminishing with the loss of daytime heating.

This feature's odds of development within the next 48 hours are very low (10%). However, it will bring some welcome relief to hot parts of south Texas in the form of some refreshing showers and thunderstorms that move inland.
Ciel

Invest 97L Event Related Links

Animated Model Plot of 97L
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 97L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 97L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 97L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 97L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Update 9PM EDT June 28, 2012
After about 12 hours of looking better and better, dry air has finally taken its toll on Debby, yet again, choking off her chances of turning back into a tropical cyclone. While still producing winds of gale force and some moderate showers, it looks like the dry air which has dogged Debby all along will now chase her out to sea, as well.
Ciel

Update 12PM EDT June 28, 2012
Debby is making a fair run at becoming declared tropical again. Should current trends continue, it is looking increasingly possible that advisories get restarted on Tropical Storm Debby as soon as later today.

Debby is moving faster to the east-northeast, and as of this update, is centered a few hundred miles west-southwest of Bermuda. Based on recent satellite, scatterometer and buoy data, Debby is once again producing sustained winds of at least 40MPH, probably higher, with heavy rain and thunderstorms ongoing in its top half.

While it is not likely that Bermuda takes a direct impact from the re-energized Debby, it is probable that it will at least see some showers, thunderstorms, and perhaps some gusts to tropical storm force.

In the longer term, after passing Bermuda the cyclone should continue going out to sea, and may get absorbed by a large, non-tropical low now exiting the east coast.
Ciel

Update 5:30PM EDT June 27, 2012
Debby Becomes Post-Tropical & Heads Out to Sea
Debby is now a sharp, elongated trough of low pressure with no well defined center, and has become exceptionally dry, save convection racing off to her northeast associated with some frontal convergence and upper level support. On this basis, NHC has written the final advisory on Tropical Storm Debby.

Debby leaves a legacy of setting several records, such as becoming the earliest named 4th tropical storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, creating locally severe floods, and spinning out a sizable number of tornadoes.

On a positive note, together with Beryl, Debby became quite the drought buster in some previously very drought plagued parts of the southeast.
Ciel

Original Post
Debby has been downgraded to a tropical depression, but the official forecast takes it back to Tropical Storm strength once over Florida, but then going out to sea. It's legacy is flooding rains and some storm surge along the Gulf. Bringing Jacksonville another round of Tropical Storm rainfall after Beryl earlier in the year, along with extreme Flooding in the Big Bend and eastern Panhandle, along with spotty flooding along the west coast of Florida. Wakulla County was likely the hardest hit area, with flooding not seen in recent memory, houses along the Sopchoppy river (even those on stilts) were flooded.

Much of the rainfall on the southwest side is gone, with only a few narrow bands left, the majority of the rainfall is to the northeast of the center, which made landfall earlier today. Official movement is East northeast at 6 mph, but latest radar and satellite observations seem to imply it is briefly back over the gulf, and moving south southeast.

Debby has been an extremely difficult forecast, and the the GFS model, with new upgrades this year, wound up doing the best. One of the aspects of the difficulty earlier on was the reformation of the center of Debby, which pulled it up into an area with very little steering currents (but enough shear to rip the convection off to the northeast)

Until Debby has moved well offshore, I wouldn't consider it over, however.

In the far east Atlantic, another area is worth watching for development, it currently has a 10% chance, but it may
develop later into the week or next week. The situation out east does not rule it out approaching the Caribbean eventually, so it'll have to be monitored over the next two weeks.

long term recording of the NASA color gulf sat for Debby:
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animator.php?130

or http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/imageanimator.php?130 (if older browsers)

Florida Radar Recording of Debby Here, or Here

Power outage map for Florida (Progress Energy)

Florida Emergency Management

Jacksonville, FL Area Media: