7:30 AM EDT 23 July 2012
The disturbance mentioned yesterday has drifted northwest over the peninsula, and most of the rain associated with it is along the east coast of Florida this morning, and because of the northwesterly motion development chances have fallen off a cliff and likely will never develop. The dry air to the north has made sure of that.
After Debbie, the Atlantic has remained mostly quiet, but this morning there is an area off Southeast Florida that currently has a 10% chance for development.
Likely it will just enhance rainfall over the southeast, parts of Central Florida, and the Bahamas.
If the disturbance makes it across the state and into the Gulf, it could gradually gain strength there, and is worth watching through this week.
It is not an official invest, so no direct model runs have been made on it, though it may get tagged later today.
Regardless, this system has a chance to bring gusty winds and rainfall to the northwestern Bahamas, central and south Florida over the next few days.
East Florida Links
Southeast Composite Radar Loop
South to North:
Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop
Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop
Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop
Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery
SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track
SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track
Area Forecast Discussions:
FLorida Keys -
Miami/South Florida -
Melbourne/East Central Florida -
Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -
99L Event Related Links
Animated Model Plot of 99L
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
(More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 99L
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 99L
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 99L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 99L -- RAMMB Info
Floater Satellite Images: