jkapust
Registered User
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For those still in the dark or reading this thread per the 5 day outlook I am concerned
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day5nav_pre.html
992 mb shows intense deepening on or about 11/8, a pressure low enough to correlate with a few weak hurricanes or strong tropical storms. While this is not tropical in nature, and more of a noreaster, a pressure at 992 can still cause a minor storm surge. With steering and high pressure blocking still in play, where this storm lands is important, It will hit somewhere between NJ and Maine.
Structures are already weakened, trees that survived, may have endured strain on their roots, and may be weakened, where power is still being restored, a direct hit on or along the nj coast, could re-establish damage to the area, worsening things.
(Edited and moved to the appropriate Forum.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Nov 05 2012 05:36 AM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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Not really the place for this, but given it's potential affect on NY/NJ recovery, I feel I should respond to jkapust's question:
All major long term global models are now showing a major Nor'easter developing off the coast next week and affecting the recovery area. looks like it could have an eye-like structure in the core, similar to what has been seen in some of the more powerful cyclones, such as the 2006 Blizzard. and are showing the potential for significant snowfall on the landward side of the system, though it's too far out to say for certainty what might happen and where a rain/snow line might develop. I do not have a source to look at the and UKMET models in the ways needed to evaluate snow potential.
Definitely something that people living in the areas hit by Sandy need to keep an eye on over the next few days.
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Edit: Update follows:
ECMWF Wind Field - 12Z model on 11-4-12 at 81 hours:
SLOSH model - 11-4-12:
Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Nov 05 2012 05:37 AM)
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