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Archives 2010s >> 2013 News Talkbacks

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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Chantal Barely a Storm in the Caribbean [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94542 - Wed Jul 10 2013 04:09 PM

I'm over from the Facebook page...but I haven't forgotten as Ed likes to call it "the dark side". The NOAA AOML page really highlights what Ed refers to in his post - http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/chantal2013/wind.html. One of these days I will remember how to post an image!

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Chantal In the Eastern Caribbean [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #94543 - Wed Jul 10 2013 04:28 PM

Last night's NAM and low level models are in that camp. The problem with the NHC graphic is, it has to assume Chantal will have enough vertical depth and overall structure to be steered by the mid-level flow. As Lois mentioned; you don't see many systems this far south "racing" west...it takes a pretty strong low to mid level ridge to do that and for any of us who enjoyed being sandwiched between that big upper level trough and the ridge last week knows all to well that was quite an impressive plume of moisture shot up to Canada. I think the models have done a fantastic job and we all have to remember what the parameters of each of these models are; one cannot expect the GFS and ECMWF to handle shallow systems well; that's not what their designed to do. One of the things I have noted over the past few hurricane seasons is this persistent shear aloft and I'm not just referring to the Central Atlantic Tropospheric Trough but just enough of a Eastern US trough that separates the mid-continental upper hot ridge from its wet cousin the upper Bermuda ridge. It doesn't look like much in the low to mid levels but up in the 300 to 200 millibars...that trough is quite pronounced and if Chantal was a deeper system then NC might have something to worry about. I've seen that shear pretty consistent due to this trough that sets up over the Eastern US aloft and given where all the upper level players are right now; there is a band of 30 to 50 knots of shear aloft right over Chantal's current path...if she remains on this persistent 280 vector; it's over. It's hard to fly against persistence given how shallow she is. What I fear is a center reformation further north.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 813
Loc: hollywood,florida 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Chantal In the Eastern Caribbean [Re: berrywr]
      #94544 - Wed Jul 10 2013 04:37 PM

The NHC has now downgraded it to a R. Low.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Robert
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 278
Loc: Southeast, FL
chantel north of hispanola [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #94545 - Wed Jul 10 2013 11:58 PM

It apeared to me today that, chantel hit hispanola . Or she split and the mid went nw and is now touching down
To the north of hispanola.

Well anyway there is big blow up of convection in the Bahamas now with what looks like a spin.
The weather at turtle cove provendencials has been out of the south now witha wind gust of 36 mph out of the sse
. Provendencials is the southern most island in the bahamas. pressure is also down to 29.95


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Remnants of Chantal [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94546 - Thu Jul 11 2013 10:21 AM

Convection has again re-fired near the remnant center of former tropical cyclone Chantal - roughly NNW of the western tip of Jamaica. Here is a link to a good alternate satellite data source for viewing worldwide systems with animation and zoom capability. Images for GOES East are normally available about 10 minutes after the image time, i.e., the image for 1315 is usually available by 1325 (which is quite fast). The pictures are provided by the Space Science & Engineering Center (SSEC) at the University of Wisconsin at Madison.

SSEC Geostationary Satellite Image Browser

Try a Water Vapor loop and zoom in on the remnant location of Chantal's convective flareup.
ED


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 351
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: Remnants of Chantal [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94547 - Thu Jul 11 2013 10:33 AM

Ed, you JUST beat me to that observation. A nice flare of convection between Jamaica and Cuba. Does this reflect energy that had been associated with Chantal. With that popping, it looks as if the convection has blown off to the north but her heart is still moving westward and looking for new moisture and less shear to get back together. Or am I just imagining things? Still looks like a lot of westward sheer in front of this area, though.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Remnants of Chantal [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #94551 - Thu Jul 11 2013 01:07 PM

No, you've got it right. A swirl, probably even low-level, is still seen near 20N 79.5W at 11/17Z with convection displaced to the east and southeast by moderate west northwesterly windshear. The shear is expected to last about another 24 to 30 hours as the remnant low moves toward the west northwest under low-level windflow. The current NHC graphic Outlook highlights an area north of Cuba (in the Bahamas) for possible relocation/redevelopment, but that area is going to remain under strong westerly windshear. The better area for redevelopment (if any) will be closer to extreme western Cuba in a couple of days.
ED


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3944
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Remnants of Chantal [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94552 - Thu Jul 11 2013 05:52 PM

Ok there is a 96L being tracked which is actual a renumber for storm 3 / AKA Chantal, so if the system were to reform it would not retain the Chantal name (reformation is still fairly unlikely).

This odd case isn't really handled by the automated systems really well, so both with show up here until probably tomorrow.


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Remnants of Chantal [Re: MikeC]
      #94553 - Thu Jul 11 2013 10:35 PM

Unless there are two distinct circulations; Chantal will continue. While I don't like where the track suddenly moved NW to a position N of Cuba; you can't dismiss the south track which in time has a better opportunity of regeneration when the upper level trough weakens and the huge hot ridge establishes itself as it has over much of the nation. Satellite imagery depicts a full latitude trough from the Gulf of Mexico extending ENE and NE at 200 and 300 millibars and satellite loops depicts that rotation quite nicely. This is the best amount of convection I've seen in the past 48 hours. I'm not prepared to say a north route is an early demise but a more southern center has a better outcome given its relationship to a departing trough in a couple of days. One more thing while we tend to look at the GFS and ECMWF and their ensembles; hat's off to that relic we call the NAM; 48 hours it put the southern extent of the remnants right were it is now.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 949
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Remnants of Chantal [Re: berrywr]
      #94554 - Fri Jul 12 2013 07:33 AM

I do not see any low level circulation this morning. The convection is likely due to difluence between the TUTT SW of the peninsula and the ridge to the east, IMO.

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doug


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 949
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Watching two Low Chance Areas [Re: MikeC]
      #94555 - Sat Jul 13 2013 09:22 AM

There is some sign of a cyclonic turn around 28/86 in the NGOM as per the RGB.

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doug


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3504
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
INVEST 97L and area near the Bahamas. [Re: doug]
      #94558 - Tue Jul 16 2013 03:28 PM

ATCF has been generated for an area of disturbed weather in the SW GOM. Around Noon today the area exhibited a CDO-like central area in IR imagery. Coordinates are 23.0N/ 95.0W 1009mb and 20 mph winds.

AL, 97, 2013071618, , BEST, 0, 230N, 950W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/97L/97L_floater.html

Another area that caught my eye is over the Bahamas with a large thunderstorm complex situated between Andros Island and Guantanamo,Cuba.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3504
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: INVEST 97L and area near the Bahamas. [Re: danielw]
      #94559 - Wed Jul 17 2013 03:13 AM

Note. INVESTs are usually Not issued for 20 MPH systems. I should have keyed in on that since the NHC TWO had no mention.

Dr Knabb posted that is was a test run for a new supercomputer that goes online shortly.


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