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Archives 2010s >> 2016 News Talkbacks

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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Life-Threatening Matthew About to Start Unleashing on Hispaniola
      #97022 - Wed Sep 28 2016 11:49 AM

12:30 AM EDT 03 October 2016 Update

Haiti is one of poorest countries in the entire Western Hemisphere. Eighty percent of residents live in poverty, and it is one of the most densely populated and least developed countries. (Source: CNN)

Most of Haiti is mountainous, and extreme deforestation has eroded much of the earth there, with little, if anything, to hold it in place to prevent mudslides and flash flooding. Since becoming a hurricane, Matthew has had an unusually tight, arguably symbiotic connection to a large and powerful convective complex now located to his east (formerly east-southeast). This thunderstorm complex is producing rain rates that are off the hook, and is ever so slowly rotating around Matthew's center ... sort of a tanker of an outer band for lack of a better description ... and is about to begin affecting the island of Hispaniola, home to Haiti and the Dominican Republic, with unforgiving torrential rain.

Whether or not the core of Matthew makes a direct hit on Hispaniola, and it likely will come very close if not doing so, the risk of catastrophic flooding and mudslides is going up exponentially tonight. Those in this path need to be paying especially close attention not only to the center of Matthew's circulation, but his entirety, especially including this peripherally connected massive thunderstorm complex, and rushing life-saving precautions to completion on that island now.



2 PM EDT 02 October 2016 Update

Hurricane Matthew has restrengthened to 145MPH winds as it moves northwest, warnings are up for Jamaica, Haiti, Eastern Cuba. Watches up for Dominican Republic and the southeastern Bahamas. There is still a very high amount of uncertainty even int he shorter range with Matthew, therefore Florida and the Southeast should continue to monitor the storm.



5 AM EDT 02 October 2016 Update



Matthew continues to be an incredibly powerful hurricane defying odds and challenging forecasters, but it is not magic. Some of the factors influencing the hurricane's phenomenal intensification and maintenance were advertised well in advance. However, models mostly failed to adequately work with these clues, and have been further challenged by an unusually large number of transient variables. One of those possibly not being talked about enough is Invest 98L . See the INVEST 98L LOUNGE for details.

Explanations and excuses aside, the time for those in Matthew's Cone of Uncertainty to take decisive precautions to protect life and property is at hand. This very resilient hurricane maintains its major status, and if anything, may also actually be growing larger. There is an ever increasing threat of catastrophic storm surge along low lying areas, in addition to tornado-like winds inside his core ... and what may become one of Matthew's most tragic of all impacts, inland flooding and mudslides.

The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the north coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas eastward to the border with the Dominican Republic.

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, and Long Cay.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS NOW IN EFFECT

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica, Haiti, Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Cuban province of Camaguey, Southeastern Bahamas including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins; Crooked Island, and Long Cay; Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti


5 PM EDT 01 October 2016 Update



Hurricane Warning issued for Jamaica and Haiti, Hurricane Watch Issued for Cuba.

Forecast track shifts a bit east, with high uncertainty in the longer range, chance for direct import on Florida is greatly reduced, but not eliminated. Bahamas likely will be dealing with the system after Cuba/Haiti, and Mid Atlantic to Northeast still needs to monitor it. Florida just needs to be on alert for any changes.

12 AM EDT 01 October 2016 Update

Now that Matthew has become a Cat 5, here are more incredible stats this tropical cyclone has achieved (credits to Philip Klotzbach)

Quote:

Matthew has intensified by 80 mph over past 24-hr - only 2 Atlantic TCs on record had stronger 24-hr intensification rates (Wilma & Felix)

Matthew is the lowest latitude category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic on record at 13.3°N

Matthew ends a 3314 day drought since the last Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic (Felix-2007)

Matthew became the 31st Atlantic basin Category 5 hurricane on record




11 PM EDT 30 September 2016 Update
Matthew becomes the first Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic since Felix in 2007.

7:45 PM EDT 30 September 2016 Update

Matthew is now a Category 4 hurricane with 150mph maximum sustained winds.

Hurricane watches are up for Jamaica, which is the forecast path for Matthew. Those in Jamaica should prepare now for a major hurricane landfall from the south.



Beyond Jamaica, eastern Cuba and the Bahamas will be dealing with Matthew as well. If it directly impacts the US is still unknown due to a complex pattern setting up, but as it stands right now, odds favor it staying east of Florida. It will be close enough for very rough surf along the coast regardless. Florida or the southeast US *cannot* be rules out, so its important to maintain a close eye on the system through the week. It may stall out over the Bahamas or slow down quite a bit, which would increase the uncertainty.

7:30 AM EDT 30 September 2016 Update

Matthew gives the appearance of a rapidly strengthening hurricane this morning, Cat 2 at the 5AM advisory, possibly stronger now. It has moved just south of west overnight and seems to be continuing on that track for the moment.



For those in Jamaica, extreme western Haiti, and Eastern Cuba it would be prudent to prepare for a major hurricane. Watches/Warnings are not up yet, but likely will be soon.

Those in the Bahamas and Florida should keep a close watch. Models currently keep Matthew east of the state, but it still is within the margin of ensemble error.

10:00 PM EDT 29 September 2016 Update
Matthew continues intensifying ahead of schedule, and may be now tracking a little more noticeably just south of due west (as forecast). It has been clear throughout the afternoon that the cyclone is in the process of building an inner core, and it would not be surprising to see an eye develop soon.



The most recent recon pass has found the minimum pressure down to 985mb, with a recently deployed dropsonde encountering winds of 106 knots (122 MPH) at the 925mb level - roughly 2000 ft (image below). In addition to producing dangerously strong winds, Buoy 42059 located north of the center just received wave heights of up to 30 ft.

Matthew is a large, powerful and dangerous hurricane. All interests along its path should heed official guidance, and make plans well in advance, if possible.



2PM EDT 29 September 2016 Update
Recon has found lower pressure and stronger winds bringing Matthew officially to hurricane status. It's facing some shear so in the short term it is unlikely to strengthen much, but in the next day or two conditions may improve enough for it to reach major hurricane status.

Tropical Storm Watches are effect for Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba which may be close enough to Matthew to feel some effects from it, although the storm is forecast to stay north of those islands.


Original Update



Tropical Storm Matthew
Recon flying the large and strong tropical wave located just east of the Lesser Antilles this morning found a messy, but closed surface circulation and winds to 60 MPH - and so Invest 97L has gone directly to being named, Matthew, the 13th named tropical cyclone of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

This storm is going to be landlocked in the central to eastern Caribbean and then largely forecast to turn to the north rather sharply by later in the week, and could become a significant hurricane in a few days. Interests in the central to eastern Caribbean may want to begin taking seriously all official watches and warnings for their areas.

As of 11AM AST Sep 28, A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the French Islands of Guadeloupe and Martinique. The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Barbados, Dominica, and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands. The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia. It does not appear immediately likely that hurricane conditions will occur over these islands, but it is somewhat possible. Matthew is a strong and strengthening tropical cyclone.

More speculation on Matthew can be found in the Matthew Lounge.

Matthew Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Matthew - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Matthew


stormplotthumb_14.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float14latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Matthew (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Matthew (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Matthew

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Matthew
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Matthew -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)



98L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 98L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 98L


stormplotthumb_15.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float15latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 98L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 98L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 98L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 98L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 98L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Caribbean Radar Mosaic Recording.

Jamaica Storm Info/Media

Jamaica Radar

Jamaican Meteorological Service

Jamaica Observer

Jamaica Star

Jamaica CVM TV

Television Jamaica

Jamaica News Network

Jamaica Office of Disaster Preparedness & Emergency Management

Power 106.1 Jamaica Radio

> Bahamas Media

Bahamas Radar

Television & Radio:

ZNS Bahamas, Radio & TV

More 94 FM Bahamas

Newspapers:

Bahamas Tribune

Nassau Guardian

Bahamas B2B

The Abaconian - Abaco Island News

Freeport News

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Matthew [Re: cieldumort]
      #97023 - Wed Sep 28 2016 11:53 AM

Added Caribbean Radar Mosaic Recording. yesterday.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Matthew [Re: cieldumort]
      #97032 - Wed Sep 28 2016 07:46 PM

Recon has found Matthew slightly stronger than earlier tonight, the center is west of St. Lucia. Likely 1004mb 65MPH

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97034 - Wed Sep 28 2016 08:34 PM

Martinique is getting a lot of the weather from Matthew tonight, a station on St. Pierre reported an 89mph gust.

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cieldumort
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Re: Tropical Storm Matthew [Re: cieldumort]
      #97035 - Wed Sep 28 2016 10:38 PM

There are some very interesting stats surrounding Matthew and the Atlantic basin as it relates to Matthew in general.

* Matthew is the 5th Atlantic TC to be named since 9/12 - tied for the most on record in the Atlantic to form between 9/12-9/28 (Source: Philip Klotzbach)

* Matthew's initial intensity of 50 knots was stronger than max intensity that half of the first 12 named storms in Atlantic in 2016 achieved. (Philip Klotzbach)

* With the naming of Matthew, the Atlantic basin has generated 50 Named Storm Days in 2016, the most in a single Atlantic hurricane season since 2012. (Philip Klotzbach)

* Matthew is the lowest latitude Atlantic named storm in the eastern Caribbean since 2010's Tomas. (Philip Klotzbach)

* Matthew's earlier min pressure of 1008mb is the highest for any TC with 50+ kt winds in the eastern Caribbean since 2001's Dean (Phil Klotzbach)

* With the formation of Matthew, 2016 became the 8th fastest to 13 named storms in the Atlantic basin (Phil Klotzbach)

* Since 1960, only 3 other Atlantic tropical cyclones that were not previously subtropical cyclones have formed with 60+ mph winds (Source: Michael Lowry)

Finally, this last quote speaks only to the Caribbean Sea's ability to often be especially favorable for significant development, and not as any indication one way or another as to the future intensity of Matthew. This is merely noteworthy in that Matthew is an intensifying tropical cyclone in the Caribbean, and doing so while entering the eastern Caribbean 'graveyard,' no less: * Since 1950, half of the 22 hurricanes that reached Category 5 status in the Atlantic Basin did so in the Caribbean Sea. This includes the two strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record, in terms of central pressure: 2005's Hurricane Wilma and 1988's Hurricane Gilbert. The last Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes, 2007's powerful duo of Dean and Felix, were both in the Caribbean Sea. (Source: The Weather Channel)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Matthew [Re: cieldumort]
      #97036 - Thu Sep 29 2016 01:25 AM

Over the last 10 years I have seen quite a few Tropical Cyclones fall into the "Behind the Pressure to Wind Speed Relationship". (PWR)
I can't recall seeing a Tropical Cyclone so far ahead of the PWR curve.
An average 1008mb system is normally a Tropical Depression.

An average 60kt (70 mph) Tropical Storm has a pressure of 1001mb.

These are averages over several decades of data.

Example: TD Matthew would be 1008mb and 35mph (30kt) winds.
TS Matthew is currently 1004mb and 65mph (56kts) winds.

Apparently there is a very tight inner vortex with Matthew. What that may mean down the road ahead we will have to wait and see.


As of 45 minutes ago RECON has found an Extrapolated SFC. Pressure of 1001.5mb. So Matthew is "equalising" if you will.

Edited by danielw (Thu Sep 29 2016 01:30 AM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Matthew [Re: danielw]
      #97043 - Thu Sep 29 2016 02:02 PM

Recon found 993 mb pressure and stronger winds despite the shearing going on, thus Matthew is now a hurricane.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: cieldumort]
      #97046 - Thu Sep 29 2016 10:13 PM

Pressure drops on Matthew continue, recon found 985, the system is moving just south of due west, and the 0z early cycle models (aka model plots) have shifted slightly west. Jamaica may be dealing with a hurricane Monday, along with Cuba and then the Bahamas. Beyond that it's still too soon to tell, but it is likely to stay just east of Florida (Florida still will need to watch closely if anything changes) and could impact somewhere in the US later, so it is definitely one to watch.

Those in the Greater Anitlles, Jamaica, Western Haiti and Eastern Cuba, could potentially have a cat 2 or 3 to deal with in a few days.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: cieldumort]
      #97047 - Thu Sep 29 2016 10:25 PM

First sign of a visible eye starting to form in this sat photo,



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97050 - Fri Sep 30 2016 07:34 AM

the first few visible sat pics suggest to me Matthew may already be close or at cat 3.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: cieldumort]
      #97053 - Fri Sep 30 2016 09:57 AM

Recon found a pressure of 969mb, indicating a strengthening storm. It seems likely that Matthew will get bumped up to a 110mph hurricane at 11am.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97055 - Fri Sep 30 2016 10:20 AM

Recon also noted that the eyewall was still open to the southwest (earlier this morning it was open to the southeast) so I suspect that NHC will keep Matthew at Cat II (which would still fit the 110mph wind speed). Uncommonly high winds with no visible eye is something often seen with storms in the Caribbean Sea, however as soon as Matthew gets away from the dry thermal low of northern South America the eye will have a better chance to fully form.
ED


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #97056 - Fri Sep 30 2016 10:30 AM

Interesting things to follow today:

Matthew is already south of the first forecast position of the 5am advisory (13.8N),

13.7N is the official furthest southerly point in 24 hours,

Recon found it at 13.73N.

Caribbean radar recording http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?229 helps here also, although it's starting to move out of the range of the radar.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97057 - Fri Sep 30 2016 10:49 AM

Matthew is now a category 3 hurricane.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97060 - Fri Sep 30 2016 01:38 PM

Recon finds it at 960mb, raised to 120mph at 2PM, still moving west southwest.
This pressure is the lowest for an Atlantic hurricane in the tropics (<23.5°N) during September in 5 years (Katia-2011). (From Phil K.)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97067 - Fri Sep 30 2016 03:33 PM

Recon extrapolated pass, down to 954mb now. 114kots at flight level (131mph), so possibly 125mph at the surface.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97069 - Fri Sep 30 2016 04:04 PM

Recon has found pressures 949mb and 121knot flight level now, dropsonde at 120knots. Could be close or at Cat 4 by 5pm.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97070 - Fri Sep 30 2016 04:20 PM

Dvorak T6.5, Matthew is rapidly intensifying could make Cat 5 if this keeps up. Also, still moving west southwest.

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Random Chaos
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97072 - Fri Sep 30 2016 05:07 PM

More recent dropsonde found 127kt surface winds, about 30 minutes ago.

IR looks spectacular:


Most recent microwave pass:


Edited by Random Chaos (Fri Sep 30 2016 05:41 PM)


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Random Chaos
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: Random Chaos]
      #97076 - Fri Sep 30 2016 08:22 PM

SFMR just got 143kt surface winds. Category 5 speeds. Waiting for NHC to make it official.

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