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News Talkback >> 2018 News Talkbacks

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cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
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September Begins Looking Unlike August
      #99425 - Sat Sep 01 2018 04:49 AM

8:30 PM EDT 1 September 2018 Update


Original Entry
After an especially subdued August in the Atlantic, which can occur with the month of September still ending up very active (See 1961 2002 and 2003), we start the new month with conditions for development much different than last, with considerably warmer SSTs in the Tropical Atlantic, and far less inhibiting Saharan dust over the entire North Atlantic. In addition, African Easterly Waves appear to be lining up.

So it goes without saying that because we got a break in August is by no means reason to let ones guard down as we now enter the very climatological peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. And as climatology would have it, we are now watching one tropical storm in the far eastern Atlantic (Florence) and a tropical wave set to enter what could be a fairly favorable state in the Gulf of Mexico next week.

Interesting model outputs on both of these, and with reason to keep watch. You can read and discuss more on the model runs of both in the Forecast Lounge:

Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Lounge and also Labor Day Week Gulf Low Forecast Lounge


Gordon Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Gordon - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Gordon


stormplotthumb_7.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float7latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Gordon (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Gordon (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Gordon

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Gordon
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Gordon -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Florence Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Florence - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Florence


stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float6latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Florence (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Florence (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Florence

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Florence
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Florence -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida
North Gulf Links North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

New Orleans, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Lake Charles, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - New Orleans, LA - Lake Charles, LA - Houston/Galveston, TX

Edited by MikeC (Mon Sep 03 2018 08:10 AM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: September Begins Looking Unlike August [Re: cieldumort]
      #99427 - Sat Sep 01 2018 06:09 AM



ECMWF TD Probability 24-72 Hours out (Image credit: Weathermodels.com)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 4110
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: September Begins Looking Unlike August [Re: cieldumort]
      #99447 - Sun Sep 02 2018 12:21 PM

NW Caribbean Radar recording to help track 91Ls position.
http://www.barbadosweather.org/Composite...Apes=1535905027


flhurricane recording of it (just started, it will take a bit to fill) http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?372


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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: September Begins Looking Unlike August [Re: MikeC]
      #99456 - Mon Sep 03 2018 07:21 AM

This morning 7 is approaching Islamorada in the Florida Keys, building, but not quite with a low level circulation quite yet. There is an upper level low to the southwest that is probably slowing that down, but at the same time feeding mid level moisture into it. That low is moving away, and there are hints of west winds on radar and a few stations south of Islamorada. I suspect it'll develop around noon. Conditions are mixed for strengthening, but odds favor it staying a tropical storm before landfall.

The small size of the system does have potential for a round of strengthening tomorrow morning before landfall, so it'll have to be watched closely then, but the NHC's forecast is fairly decent.


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