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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
September Begins Looking Unlike August
      #99425 - Sat Sep 01 2018 08:49 AM

8:30 PM EDT 1 September 2018 Update


Original Entry
After an especially subdued August in the Atlantic, which can occur with the month of September still ending up very active (See 1961 2002 and 2003), we start the new month with conditions for development much different than last, with considerably warmer SSTs in the Tropical Atlantic, and far less inhibiting Saharan dust over the entire North Atlantic. In addition, African Easterly Waves appear to be lining up.

So it goes without saying that because we got a break in August is by no means reason to let ones guard down as we now enter the very climatological peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. And as climatology would have it, we are now watching one tropical storm in the far eastern Atlantic (Florence) and a tropical wave set to enter what could be a fairly favorable state in the Gulf of Mexico next week.

Interesting model outputs on both of these, and with reason to keep watch. You can read and discuss more on the model runs of both in the Forecast Lounge:

Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Lounge and also Labor Day Week Gulf Low Forecast Lounge



Gordon Event Related Links


https://flhurricane.com/images/2018/float7latest.gif https://flhurricane.com/images/2018/stormplotthumb_7.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2018&storm=7 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Gordon
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Gordon


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Gordon (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Gordon (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Gordon

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Gordon
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Gordon -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View



Florence Event Related Links


https://flhurricane.com/images/2018/float6latest.gif https://flhurricane.com/images/2018/stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2018&storm=6 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Florence
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Florence


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Florence (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Florence (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Florence

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Florence
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Florence -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View



East Florida Links <html><a href="http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/southeast_lite_loop.php" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/Loop/southeast_loop.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();">Southeast Composite Radar Loop</A> 

(<a href="http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/southeast_lite.php"

onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/RadarImg/southeast.gif\>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();">Latest Static</a></html>) South to North:

<html> <a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>BYW<html>_loop.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>BYW<html>_loop.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();"></html>Key West, FL Radar<html> Radar Loop</A> 

(<a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>BYW<html>_0.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>BYW<html>_0.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();">Latest Static</a>)</html>

<html> <a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>AMX<html>_loop.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>AMX<html>_loop.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();"></html>Miami, FL Radar<html> Radar Loop</A> 

(<a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>AMX<html>_0.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>AMX<html>_0.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();">Latest Static</a>)</html>

<html> <a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>MLB<html>_loop.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>MLB<html>_loop.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();"></html>Melbourne, FL Radar<html> Radar Loop</A> 

(<a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>MLB<html>_0.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>MLB<html>_0.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();">Latest Static</a>)</html>

<html> <a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>JAX<html>_loop.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>JAX<html>_loop.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();"></html>Jacksonville, FL Radar<html> Radar Loop</A> 

(<a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>JAX<html>_0.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>JAX<html>_0.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();">Latest Static</a>)</html>


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -



Northeast Gulf Links <html><a href="http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/southeast_lite_loop.php" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/Loop/southeast_loop.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();">Southeast Composite Radar Loop</A> 

(<a href="http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/southeast_lite.php"

onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/RadarImg/southeast.gif\>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();">Latest Static</a></html>)

<html> <a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>TBW<html>_loop.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>TBW<html>_loop.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();"></html>Tampa Bay, FL Radar<html> Radar Loop</A> 

(<a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>TBW<html>_0.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>TBW<html>_0.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();">Latest Static</a>)</html>

<html> <a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>BYX<html>_loop.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>BYX<html>_loop.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();"></html>Key West, FL Radar<html> Radar Loop</A> 

(<a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>BYX<html>_0.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>BYX<html>_0.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();">Latest Static</a>)</html>

<html> <a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>MOB<html>_loop.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>MOB<html>_loop.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();"></html>Mobile, AL Radar<html> Radar Loop</A> 

(<a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>MOB<html>_0.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>MOB<html>_0.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();">Latest Static</a>)</html>

<html> <a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>TLH<html>_loop.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>TLH<html>_loop.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();"></html>Tallahassee FL Radar<html> Radar Loop</A> 

(<a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>TLH<html>_0.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>TLH<html>_0.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();">Latest Static</a>)</html>

<html> <a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>EVX<html>_loop.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>EVX<html>_loop.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();"></html>Northwest Florida Radar<html> Radar Loop</A> 

(<a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>EVX<html>_0.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>EVX<html>_0.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();">Latest Static</a>)</html>

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida


North Gulf Links <html><a href="http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southmissvly_loop.php" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/Loop/southmissvly_loop.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();">North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop</A> 

(<a href="http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southmissvly.php"

onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/southmissvly.gif'\>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();">Latest Static</a></html>) East to West:

<html> <a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>MOB<html>_loop.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>MOB<html>_loop.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();"></html>Mobile, AL Radar<html> Radar Loop</A> 

(<a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>MOB<html>_0.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>MOB<html>_0.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();">Latest Static</a>)</html>

<html> <a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>LIX<html>_loop.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>LIX<html>_loop.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();"></html>New Orleans, LA Radar<html> Radar Loop</A> 

(<a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>LIX<html>_0.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>LIX<html>_0.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();">Latest Static</a>)</html>

<html> <a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>LCH<html>_loop.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>LCH<html>_loop.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();"></html>Lake Charles, LA Radar<html> Radar Loop</A> 

(<a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>LCH<html>_0.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>LCH<html>_0.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();">Latest Static</a>)</html>

<html> <a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>HGX<html>_loop.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>HGX<html>_loop.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();"></html>Houston/Galveston, TX Radar<html> Radar Loop</A> 

(<a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>HGX<html>_0.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>HGX<html>_0.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();">Latest Static</a>)</html>

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - New Orleans, LA - Lake Charles, LA - Houston/Galveston, TX



Edited by MikeC (Mon Sep 03 2018 12:10 PM)

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cieldumort
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Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: September Begins Looking Unlike August [Re: cieldumort]
      #99427 - Sat Sep 01 2018 10:09 AM



ECMWF TD Probability 24-72 Hours out (Image credit: Weathermodels.com)

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MikeCAdministrator
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: September Begins Looking Unlike August [Re: cieldumort]
      #99447 - Sun Sep 02 2018 04:21 PM

NW Caribbean Radar recording to help track 91Ls position.
http://www.barbadosweather.org/Composite...Apes=1535905027


flhurricane recording of it (just started, it will take a bit to fill) http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?372

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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: September Begins Looking Unlike August [Re: MikeC]
      #99456 - Mon Sep 03 2018 11:21 AM

This morning 7 is approaching Islamorada in the Florida Keys, building, but not quite with a low level circulation quite yet. There is an upper level low to the southwest that is probably slowing that down, but at the same time feeding mid level moisture into it. That low is moving away, and there are hints of west winds on radar and a few stations south of Islamorada. I suspect it'll develop around noon. Conditions are mixed for strengthening, but odds favor it staying a tropical storm before landfall.

The small size of the system does have potential for a round of strengthening tomorrow morning before landfall, so it'll have to be watched closely then, but the NHC's forecast is fairly decent.

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