Hurricane29
Weather Guru
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Loc: Miami Florida 25.77N 80.25W
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Interesting stuff from the this morning but cant be taken to seriously as its very long-range and will probably change in the next run.But one thing to make note the has indeed been indicateing some kind of development in the caribbean for a while now and basically taken it north.Overall the time of year is fast approaching so we'll see what happens.
348hrs...
360hrs...
384hrs...
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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Thanks, worth raised eyebrows. Now I suppose the thing to do would be to actually watch what's going on and see the correlation if any. Thanks.. This might be Florida's year of any which way you can get hit. Then again, maybe not.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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This is todays Forecast Discussion for the next 4 days.
To eliminate confusion with Hurricane29's post for the 300 + hours forecast.
Excerpt from the Monday Afternoon Model Discussion.
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
122 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2007
VALID MAY 14/1200 UTC THRU MAY 18/0000 UTC
(May 14/ 8AM EDT Thru May 17/ 8PM EDT~danielw)
...POTENTIAL TROPICAL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN/FRONTAL WAVE INT THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...
THE HAS TRENDED A DAY SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE NAM/CANADIAN DEVELOP A WEAK LOW IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...NEW TO THIS RUN FOR THE NAM...AND KEEPS IT STATIONARY.
THE /UKMET DO NOT HAVE THIS SYSTEM...
(edited~danielw)
POTENTIAL TROPICAL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN/FRONTAL WAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...
THE CANADIAN IS THE QUICKEST WITH THE PIECE OF ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ALOFT...WITH THE
GFS/NCEP ENSMEAN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SPREAD...AND THE /UKMET THE SLOWEST WITH ITS PROGRESSION. THE CANADIAN IS TRENDING SLOWER TOWARDS THE SOLUTION. WILL PREFER A SOLUTION NO FASTER THAN THE WITH THE FRONTAL WAVE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE THURSDAY.
THE CANADIAN/NAM/GFS TRY TO DEVELOP A LOW IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY LATE THURSDAY ALONG AN EASTERLY WAVE FORMERLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL END OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE THAT EVOLVED INTO ANDREA.
THE HAS BEGUN PUTTING OFF THE FORMATION OF THIS CYCLONE...NOT A GOOD SIGN. WHILE MANY OF THE ENSMEMBERS HAVE IT...THEY USE THE SAME PHYSICS AS THE ...WHICH SUBJECTIVELY HAS BEEN NOTED TO HAVE A BIAS GREATER THAN ONE CONCERNING TROPICAL LOWS. THE CANADIAN AND HAVE AN
EVEN HIGHER BIAS CONCERNING TROPICAL LOWS. CLIMATOLOGY IS ALSO NOT ON ITS SIDE...AS THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO HURRICANE SEASONS ON RECORD WITH RECOGNIZED TROPICAL AND/OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES IN
MAY. WILL CONSIDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW A VERY LOW PROBABILITY ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO FOR THE TIME BEING.
(edited~danielw)
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html
Edited by danielw (Mon May 14 2007 09:07 PM)
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3406
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Excerpt from the Caribbean Forecast Discussion.
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
226 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2007
ALONG THIS AXIS...UNDER MID LEVEL FORCING...
THE DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS BY 48-60 HRS...WHICH IT THEN SHOWS LIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA BY 72-84
HRS. THE COMPLETELY DIVERGE FROM THIS SOLUTION...INSTEAD SUSTAINING AN OPEN INVERTED TROUGH. EVALUATION OF THE VELOCITY
POTENTIAL ANOMALIES...AS AN INDICATOR OF THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION... SHOWS AN AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT PROPAGATING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC-WESTERN AFRICA...WITH NO DISCERNIBLE SIGNATURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA/CARIBBEAN OR MEXICO. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE MODEL MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC ON ITS DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED CYCLONE...AND THAT THE SOLUTION MIGHT BE MORE APPROPRIATE UNDER THE CURRENT DYNAMICS.
(edited~danielw)
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 146
Loc: Miami Florida 25.77N 80.25W
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NAM @84hrs...
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 384
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
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EAST...
CURRENT RUN IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FAST AND THE
SLOW UKMET WITH PROGRESSION OF E COAST VORTEX D5-6. THE MODEL TRY
TO INCORPORATE SOME ENERGY FROM THE SUBTROPICS INTO ERN
SYSTEM...USING IT TO SPIN UP DEEP SFC CYCLONE OFFSHORE. TIMING OF
THIS INFUSION IS UNCERTAIN...SINCE IT DEPENDS ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE
TROF BECOMES EARLY IN THE PD. IF SYSTEM AMPLIFIES SHARPLY
EARLY...AND IS ABLE TO SEPARATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE MAIN BAND
OF WLYS...THE SUBTROPICAL INTERACTION WOULD BE
MAXIMIZED...ALLOWING ENTIRE VORTEX TO DEEPEN AND REMAIN CUT OFF
FARTHER S AND LONGER...POSING A GREATER THREAT TO THE ERN
SEABOARD.
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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"MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
122 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2007
..AS THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO HURRICANE SEASONS ON RECORD WITH RECOGNIZED TROPICAL AND/OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES IN MAY. WILL CONSIDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW A VERY LOW PROBABILITY..."
Not that I expect anything to develop, but the rationale is lousy - and inaccurate. HPC needs to leave tropical stuff to TPC - in 1887, two tropical storms were in progress at the same time in May.
ED
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 232
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
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I would agree with Ed that this is very poor reasoning for why something can or cannot happen in meteorology. Up until 3 years ago, no place had three hurricanes pass over it in a single season, and until 2 seasons ago we had never run out of letters for storm names. In the recent 'climate' of weather records and trends being broken, there is much precedent FOR these type of 'never before' events. Those of you with better access and knowledge of these advanced models please keep us informed! As a side note, I can only find runs out to about 140 hours. Where is the link for out to 360 hours?
Long Range Model Runs
Just a reminder to others that at periods beyond 5 days, model accuracy deteriorates rapidly.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue May 15 2007 10:28 AM)
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Cape Haze Peninsula, SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
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Quote:
I would agree with Ed that this is very poor reasoning for why something can or cannot happen in meteorology. Up until 3 years ago, no place had three hurricanes pass over it in a single season, and until 2 seasons ago we had never run out of letters for storm names. In the recent 'climate' of weather records and trends being broken, there is much precedent FOR these type of 'never before' events.
And before 2004, it was unheard of for 3 destructive storms to hit the FL peninsula within the space of 6 weeks.
AND, down here in our area (Charlotte County) I can't count the number of times "old timers" said that there was no way would hit us because storms "never" hit us in our area.
For them to say it can't happen because it's never happened before is just plain irresponsible on their part. There is a huge difference between improbable and impossible. Nothing is impossible. Especially when talking about weather.
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Lesli in SWFL.
(my 2009 guess - 14/7/5)
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 384
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
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it is just early yet, right there where u found the it will run out to 360 when the model is finished
HERE http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
also:
FRONTAL WAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...
SINCE BOTH 06/12Z SOLNS ARE FASTER W/ THE SECOND SHORTWAVE
DIGGING INTO THE EAST ON DAYS 2-3...BOTH ARE FASTER TO TAKE AN
INCIPIENT FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS AND
SOUTHWEST ATL NORTHEAST. THAT BEING SAID...THE 12Z RUN HAS
TRENDED FARTHER WEST AND THUS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN EITHER THE
00/06Z SOLNS. ALSO OF NOTE...THE 12Z RUN IS A BIT STRONGER
THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS...LIKELY BECAUSE OF THE MORE ROBUST CLOSED
LOW EMBEDDED IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON DAY 3.
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
Edited by NewWatcher (Tue May 15 2007 12:37 PM)
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 232
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
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The site I use is the following, and the only runs out for 168 hours no matter how I run it. Are you using a different access URL? or a different site altogether?
Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2013 Season Prediction: 18/9/4
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angeldeville
Registered User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1
Loc: Florida
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i'm pretty new to this (to say the least) but how do i know which run is the newest? sorry if that's a dumb question
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FLGuy
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 13
Loc: South Florida
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Here's a great link that will answer your question:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/F2.html
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FLGuy
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 13
Loc: South Florida
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It appears to me after seeing the latest that it is not impossible for a low level circulation to cross the western Cuba area and over south Florida exiting off into the Western Atlantic and then ramping up a bit around the NW Bahamas. Then heading north to NE more west of what was previously thought. Could become a headache for the eastern seaboard.
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
206 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007
THE NOW
DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW JUST WEST OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS BY 36-48
HRS...WITH LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION LIFTING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN CUBA
BY 60-72 HRS. THIS IS SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST THAN ON THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE NAM...UKMET AND THE DIVERGE FROM THIS
SOLUTION...AS THEY DEVELOP A LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS BY 60
HRS. THE EUROPEANS-NAM SOLUTION SEEMS MORE COHERENT...AS THE
DRIVING FORCE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS GOING TO BE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE GULF.
Edited by FLGuy (Tue May 15 2007 04:14 PM)
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Nateball
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 40
Loc: Tarpon Springs FL
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Here's the link I use for 384 hours, Just change the hour in the URL for the up to hour runs 00, 06,12 or 18
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/ten_s_loop.shtml
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 318
Loc: Cape Haze Peninsula, SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
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But do we have any corresponding satellite data showing anything developing? 36-48 hours isn't that far away, so we should see something on satellite that it's extrapolating from, shouldn't we? And I say that because I'm not an expert and I'm looking to see what's on the satellite that the models are seeing that will generate.
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Lesli in SWFL.
(my 2009 guess - 14/7/5)
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
Edited by madmumbler (Wed May 16 2007 07:47 AM)
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 384
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
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Interestingly enough Floater 1 is on what they are calling Invest
which is centered on Cuba, South Fla, and the Bahamas
right in the area the says something is to happen......
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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FLGuy
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 13
Loc: South Florida
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I just noticed that floater! This is getting more interesting by the hour.
GFS is still on the Carib low.
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 384
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
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SOME CONCERN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW OVER THE WRN
ATLC/NRN BAHAMAS ON FRI...THOUGH THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL HAS
RETREATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM ITS PREVIOUS 8-11FT/25-30KT SOLUTION.
WITH NUMEROUS OTHER MODELS INDICATING THE LOW DEVELOPING...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH...THOUGH THE SECONDARY LOW OVER CUBA GENERATED BY
THE ~00Z FRI SHOWS CLASSIC SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. WILL
CAP WINDS/SEAS AT MINIMAL SCA LVL SAT/SUN BEFORE DROPPING THEM BACK
SLOWLY AS THE CONTINENTAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO WRN ATLC OFF THE MID
ATLC/SE COAST.
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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FLGuy
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 13
Loc: South Florida
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LOW OUT OF THE CARIB TRACKING ACROSS
CUBA ON THURSDAY...BUT THIS COULD END UP BEING JUST AN ELONGATED
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
THE CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE PRONOUNCED LOW LIFTING ACROSS CUBA
AND THEN THROUGH THE BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY. BELIEVE THIS SCENARIO IS
EXAGGERATED AT LEAST...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
MULTIPLE SHORT
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE RESOLVED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC
LOW N OF THE BAHAMA BANK BY 12Z FRI THAT PULLS UP THE ERN SEABOARD
INTO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS.
Ask three different forecasters and you will get three different forecasts!
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 488
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
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Guess this is the same system that's getting attention on the am NWS discussion from
Wakefield (SE) Va:
CONFIDENCE GROWING ON A COASTAL SYSTEM ORGANIZING OFF THE NC/VA
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. STRONG WINDS AND AREAS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST INTO
SATURDAY.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 146
Loc: Miami Florida 25.77N 80.25W
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For what its worth the is forcasting a TS down there at about 192-240hr time frame.It intensifys a bit.
Current ECWMF 240 forecast- 850mb level ( 5000 ft)
Edited by danielw (Thu May 17 2007 12:30 AM)
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 384
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
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THE SFC LOW IN THE WRN ATLC ON D2..AND INTO NEW
ENG ON D3...IS ABOUT SIX HRS SLOWER WHEN COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUN.
ON D3...THE HAS TRENDED TOWARD A MUCH MORE CLOSED OFF SYSTEM
OVER NEW ENG...WITH A SFC LOW FARTHER WEST AND STRONGER THAN THE
PRIOR RUNS.
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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FLGuy
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 13
Loc: South Florida
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12Z still showing a Caribbean low moving into the Bahamas behind a low that moves NE out of the Bahamas.
12Z Canadian still showing the low in the Bahamas moving out NE.
12Z UK showing a low in the Bahamas moving up just off-shore the eastern seaboard and then slamming into New England.
Models: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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FLGuy
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 13
Loc: South Florida
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
213 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007
THE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A LOW FORMING OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS EARLY THIS CYCLE AND LIFTING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA. IT
IS THE ONLY MODEL SUPPORTING THIS FORECAST...MAINTAINING CYCLE TO
CYCLE CONSISTENCY. BUT THUS FAR...EXCEPT FOR THE OPEN TROUGH OVER
THE CARIBBEAN...THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A LOW FORMING OVER THE
BASIN. IN THIS REGION...THE AND EUROPEAN MODEL DELAY WARM CORE
CYCLONIC DEVELOPMENT UNTIL 72-96 HRS...WITH LOW FORMING JUST EAST
OF NICARAGUA. THIS IS TO COINCIDE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS SUGGESTED BY THE VELOCITY POTENTIAL
ANOMALIES OF THE . SO THE POTENTIAL/RISK REMAIN ACROSS THIS
AREA.
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FLGuy
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 13
Loc: South Florida
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
259 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK LOW FORMING NEAR THE
NORTH TIP OF ANDROS ISLAND. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS SHOWN WELL BY THE
NAM12 AND HAVE USED THE NAM12 AND DGEX FOR THE WINDS. THE NAM12 IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE 40 WITH THE NEXT FRONT WHICH SHOULD PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LOW FORMING AND
MOVING NORTH, MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL GO WITH IT AND THE MOS
GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWER POPS THAN BEFORE.
More interesting by the hour today.
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 2798
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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If it weren't May I'd be a bit more inclined to make an issue of it. However it is unusual for May itself. I'm going to hold off another day and wait to see if this persists a bit more before trying to peg this one.
I don't think I've seen something like this on the models in May before, though. But, wave mongering this early is a bit too close to Crying Wolf to me. (even moreso since there is no actual wave right now, just long range forecasts)
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 420
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA 27.37N 80.24W
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That low forming over the Bahamas has one negative effect- it decreases the chances for rain in the southern part of the Florida peninsula. I hope if that other low forms near the Caymans - that it will somehow bring some badly needed precip to Florida.
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________2013 Forecast: 16/8/4________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1201
Loc: South Florida
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Beyond putting on a good show I agree with Mike.
Worth watching but... and as for that the model that blew up a storm on the 25th and 26th of May.. it totally lost it on the 27th.
Just keep watching the models but take them with a grain of salt this time of year and look towards consistency.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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dem05
User
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Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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While that is correct...Throughout the afternoon, some weak turning has become more evident north of Panama (and east of Nicaragua). Generally speaking, we very well may see a low pressure system form down there toward the weekend/early next week that maybe worthy of some more interesting discussion. Probably also depends on what happens on the Pacific side south of Panama.
Visible Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html
Edited by dem05 (Thu May 17 2007 02:12 PM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3406
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Just a quick note to eliminate some of the confusion.
There are 2 systems being discussed:
1-The area of clouds and convection near the Bahamas. This is the weather being referred to in the "Western Atlantic".
2-The ECWMF European model.."Was" indicating a possible Tropical System around Sunrise on Saturday May 26th.
The last 2 runs of that particular model are NOT indicating anything other than a broad area of Low Pressure in the Western Caribbean.
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dem05
User
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Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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On Suspect area #1: That's looking interesting! One could easily argue that low is trying to go warm core pretty quick this afternoon based on satellite appearance. One could also argue that (as of this hour) it looks as well/better defined than Andrea ever did.
Visible Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
IR Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
While I'm sounding to some like a mongering mad man (-: LOL :-)! Suspect area #2. FYI...The ECWMF is back at it with popping something weak in the SW Carribean, as are most of the other models...to one degree or another. As always, the is going hyperactively nuts on development down there right now. While, I put no validity in that extreme...the devils advocate does reminded me that as far as the early season goes (more so June), the was the first to pick up on what became Alberto last year.
Edited by dem05 (Thu May 17 2007 06:40 PM)
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1047
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Shear has relaxed between roughly 20N to 30N and 70W to 80W to under 30 knots, with a sizable portion of the region bounded by roughly 25N to 30N and 70W to 75W largely under 15 knots. This has allowed healthy high pressure outflow to form over the strongest thunderstorm complexes, which at first glance have a bit of a tropical cyclone-like appearance to them.
CIMSS Shear Tendency
Nearer the surface, one can make out what appears to be some low to mid-level rotations, arguably a pair of MCVs, within two of the better-looking complexes, one near 25N 70W and the other close to 28N 72W, as of this reply (7PM eastern).
Invest Floater
What is really missing here, I think, are:
1)Pressures in the region have lowered some in response to the general trofiness, but are not falling appreciably
2)Water temps in that area are marginal, at best, given that the upper-levels aren't exactly comparatively cold
3)Shear, while relaxed, is still rather high in most of the general area and
4)Even where shear is favorable, it goes from favorable to highly unfavorable in just a small jump
Having qualified all of that, it will be very interesting to see if this activity continues to improve in appearance and structure while still located in a low to moderate shear environment and over marginally warm waters. I can see a 91L tag not too far in the future, if that should be the case.
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weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 82
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TEST
Your browser issue seems to have cleared up!
Thank ya' sir
Edited by weather_wise911 (Thu May 17 2007 09:18 PM)
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Excellent observations! Since your post, the shear has moved in on "#1". If there was a foot in the door for development, it is closed now. "#2" still may have a shot down there in the Carribean late weekend, we shall see if the models and the surface troughiness hold up.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1201
Loc: South Florida
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that the area off the coast of Florida needs to be monitored for signs of development going into June which is really pretty normal and in line with climo.. until that big high builds in that everyone seems to be expecting later in the forecast period which *could* bring Atlantic Storms to possible landfall desinations.
Bahamas seems a more favorable spot this year for early development than some years but keep watching
As for the Caribbean.. I hear you but it's always a wait and see area and we usually watch more than wait.
Looks like a quiet weekend.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 384
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
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Definite turning at about 50/30. Floater 4 is on it with the wor Invest
A lot of convection with #1 in the Bahamas and the one to the north, east of North Carolina. This area is I guess what is expected to run up the east coast this weekend and next week.
I dont really see much of #2 that is supposed to be in the Caribbean.
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1047
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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The first convective ball we were discussing last night really should have a 91L up on it this morning, but of course doesn't lol 
(I'm looking at it anew for the first time this morning now at about 9AM central time)
In all fairness to and the other agencies, it is a hybrid tropical disturbance/depression ..already.. and the shear over it at this time is not really a factor as it is heading northeast within the main steering currents and under subtle difluent flow aloft.. netting the shear out to acceptably low levels - however, mixed within an elongated trough -- and just about to run into that approaching front, and has already been traveling over cool waters... so I can appreciate the decision not to tag it. It has most likely just about run it's course.
Still, take a look! We have what could have easily been Invest #2 for the season - already in mid May! - (and I guess still might, but the clock is running down fast on this one) Floater 1 "Invest"
On a side note, I have noticed that several folks were confused by this Floater the last time it was centered over something (Andrea). After Andrea regenerated they never moved it along with (I submit TD and then TS Andrea), but rather chose to leave it over the same spot, which gave the appearance that all that was left of Andrea were indeed just "remnants." Moral to that story is never trust a Floater to stay on top of a system of interest - switch back to a wider view if they aren't bothering to move the Floater with the Invest!
LOL!
We now have 91L!
Edited by cieldumort (Fri May 18 2007 11:05 AM)
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
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91L is out on the navy site (East Coast Storm)! Barry on the way?? 
(Since Invest 91L is not yet covered on the Main Page Article, this post was moved here)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat May 19 2007 11:46 PM)
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Well, the thunderstorm activity in the SW Carribean does look a little bit more interesting today. I guess time will tell as to whether or not there is something more interesting going on there.
Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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I have attached a picture (To this post) of this mornings Quickscat Pass over the SW Carribean if anyone would like to have a look. Looks like a surface low is down there.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1047
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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I concur. A surface low - disturbance - is apparently brewing. This mornings Hi-Res QuikSCAT shows this off quite well. The mean wind speed appears to be running about 20 knots, but there were some vectors - most likely in thunderstorms and/or thunderstorm outflows - exceeding 40. There is some nice
upper-level divergence , and shear over this feature is generally running under 20 knots.
Worth watching, as it is in a favorable environment. was gangbusters on this a day ago, wildly developing a hurricane out of there. Since then however, all models look to have backed down.
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 146
Loc: Miami Florida 25.77N 80.25W
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Interesting stuff from TPC.....
CARIBBEAN SEA...
SHIP...BUOY...AND LAND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUES WITH LITTLE
APPARENT MOVEMENT. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA AT
22N80W TO 16N82W TO 10N82W WITH HINTS THAT A LOW MAY BE PRESENT
AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN
WITHIN 120 NMI OF THE TROUGH AXIS SOUTH OF 14N. THE DOES
SUGGEST THAT A SURFACE LOW MAY FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR . IT
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TRY
TO FORM. THERE EXISTS QUITE LARGE AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE NE PACIFIC WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED
MONSOON TROUGH REACHING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG WITH LOW
TROPOSPHERIC WIND SHEAR SOUTH OF 15N ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS
ANALYSIS. HOWEVER...THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND WOULD LIKELY
ALLOW FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IN THE NEXT DAY OR .
REGARDLESS IF THIS DEVELOPS...SUBSTANTIAL RAIN MAY OCCUR IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
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