Central Florida Hurricane Center 2012

Tropcial Depression #11 has formed in the Gulf of Mexico, and Tropical Storm warning flags are flying from high island to Corpus Christi in Texas. This has a little time to wrap up, so it's worth watching folks in Texas for a strong Tropical Storm.

Fabian continues westward, now a category 2 hurricane. I see nothing to stop it from becoming the first major hurricane of the season. It won't be close enough to the US for 6 days to really make a call, so we'll continue to monitor the model and persistence of the models. It's shaping up to be a rather active September.
Mike

Perhaps even VERY busy. Tropical Depression 11 has formed in the Gulf of Mexico and is heading for the southeast Texas coast. TD 11 is expected to become Tropical Storm Grace prior to landfall on Sunday as a 45 knot storm - and this seems like a reasonable forecast to me. Tropical Storm Warnings now posted from High Island to Corpus Christi, Texas. Later today I'll post a few more details in the Storm Forum.

Late night update: Decided to hold off on the Storm Forum entry until Sunday morning. At the moment Grace is barely a TS. Hurricane Fabian on the other hand is mighty impressive as it builds toward Cat IV.

Hurricane Fabian really getting his act together. I didn't have a chance to review the 15Z info, but at 1345Z an eye was forming at 17.1N 48.6W and the NRL had Fabian listed at 85kts with a central pressure of 973mb. Movement is to the west northwest (about 285 degrees). The 12Z model runs are very interesting in that some of the Tropical models and the Global models are remarkably aligned in the long range forecast positions (the outliers are the A98 and the GFDL). I'll amplify on this in the Storm Forum later today.

Invest 93L has sparked up again this morning near 27N 59.5W with scattered convection. Looks very weak, but can't push it out of the 'potential development' equation just yet.

Trailing wave behind Fabian (ESE) getting better organized but still buried in the ITCZ. This system should lift out to the west northwest in the trailing wake of Fabian and become a TD in a couple of days (and this one worries me a bit). Another strong wave will soon exit the west coast of Africa.

Finally, Hurricane Jimena in the EASTPAC looks well organized and the latest model runs nudge the track a little more to the north of west - not good for Hawaii. Looks like Jimena is going to pass mighty close to the Big Island on Labor Day. I've already posted my thoughts on Jimena in the 'Other Storm Basins' Forum.

Looks like a busy holiday weekend if you're an avid storm tracker.
ED

The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.

- [mike@flhurricane.com]

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Aug 31 2003 12:33 AM)

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