I got this from another board this guy got Isodore and lili right on the dot last year!
(this is what I wrote him)
Now that theirs an ULL in the gulf what will that do to Fabian? also what are the chances of this getting into the gulf? I haven't seen any charts for storms that are cat 3 or above that has passed through 60w and 20n that has made such a huge turn like the NHC is predicting so thats why IM worried.
(this is Brad)
That UUL low and what ever happens with the potential development in the West Carb. Would only help to keep the Canadian trough from digging South. That trough will never be able to over come a developing tropical cyclone in over the Gulf or Florida, that would pump up a ridge over it.
There is an outside chance that Fabian could get into the Gulf, if the trough isn't sharp enough he could keep moving West. this is hard as well, hurricane eventual like to move poleward. The only reason for hurricanes in general is to redistribute heat and energy from the tropics to the mid and upper latitudes.
I would just say watch both the carb. and Fabian very closely, no ones out of the woods
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