Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Re: Regarding watches...
Wed Sep 17 2003 04:42 PM
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LOL Phil.
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For whomever wanted Joe B's take from earlier today as to whether he was continuing with the scottsvb/eastern solution, he hasn't yet backed off that much. There's a lot more to his mid-day discussion (as well as this morning's), but he offered the following:
The track to 335 continues till around 2:00 this upcoming morning, then goes to 325 till tomorrow afternoon, then to 315. There is enough time and enough funny business that can go on that can adjust it east a bit, a track that would be over Hatteras to near Richmond or Fredricksburg, then DC, but that would be the limit. Still, it's a big blow as the storm is more widespread than intense, though it does look like it is improving and pressure is down at 956.
The question that is puzzling me is the effect of the cool, dry air. The water is warm until 20 miles within the coast. The storm, instead of drawing in the cool, dry air, is attacking it much like a Texas storm as far as hitting the coast at an angle that can tighten it. Except in Texas it's nice and warm. However, if one thinks about it, with the storm heading toward that directly rather than paralleling it and pulling it in, it may indeed tighten up until almost on land since the time over shelf water may only be an hour or two. The question arises is with Chesapeake Bay temperatures so warm and the wind turning into the Bay, then up the Bay, does it try to come up just west of the Bay where a naturally convergent area would set up between rain-cooled air and the tropical flow? This will be a very interesting endgame as the gridded data shows the leaning toward the northeast for the 6-hour period after landfall, but then the release. Both Floyd and Bertha found a way to stay close to frictionless areas with time, and east of the path they were supposed to have taken. However, Fran barrelled in and kept going. This lies somewhere in between as far as the effects on path.
I am nervous about the lack of wind with 956 mb. Hugo pulled the same thing, a 954 95-knot storm the day before, big and spread out. This will not go to 934, but several more millibars of drop and a tightening of the core is a concern.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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