convection coming back to the area of 90L this morning.. so that's not a question at the moment. nhc's twd now pointing to interaction with the front as a mechanism to slow or prevent development.. of course as the front decays it can become a help and not a hinderance. be interested to see if they'll get a plane down there today, like they always say, and never seem to do. it doesn't look imminent, but not bad either. models.. mostly retaining a trough/low down there, and pushing whatever is there into mexico, or squashing it out as the trough over the east amplifies. the 00z cmc run is the most vigorous of the lot.. and you know that model is often bonkers... it has a system east of brownsville in 5 days drifting NE. my take right now is the status quo.. with slow organization in the bay of campeche and erratic motion of anything that may develop.. until the next amplification is past and the pattern to the north flattens and lets the system start north. opal-esque if something forms.
kate.. mentioning it because it's going to be with us for a while. essentially every model has it with us in five-six days.. with some disagreement on exactly where. the eastern camp drifts it around out there near the azores.. but in general tend to loop it back west to some degree. the western camp stalls it briefly and accelerates it westward, deepening, then alternately turns it nw or even sw (nogaps) within 500 mi of bermuda in 4-6 days. watch for that nogaps take.. that would give us an erratic longtrack mid-latitude system.
waves looking lame, even with some ridging east of the islands. in about 3-4 days some modeling creating a low along the front edge of the east coast trough, out near bermuda.. then leaving it to drift out there as the trough lifts some. none forecasting a great deal of development.. but it will probably interact with kate if kate gets back that far west.
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