The southerly track would come in if the energy moving in from the NW didn't take out the high pressure to the west of Larry, and that high pressure would allow the flow N-S(ish) around the clockwise flow. Assumption is that a weak storm would more likely fall prey to this scenario.
Here's a comment from Joe B for all you who didn't get to read this morning's column:
THURSDAY AFTERNOON S(N)IDE COMMENT. I am getting the impression TPC just does not like Larry. reluctant to name, then talking about how disjointed and unorganized it is, recon flies in and pressures are down at 995 and winds are up to 55kts. And guess what.. Now strong winds are on eastern side.
Midday runs very interesting as they are showing a low developing northeast of the stalled position of this storm in 5 days. Sometimes, not always, that "stretched" look is the sign the system is going to come out, but one can not tell and until I get a good look at how the storm develops and interacts with the ridges trapping it, or perhaps releasing it, all options have their good and bad points. In fact, the GFS implication that this may be around a week from now is in there also. I am sticking with my idea.
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