nogaps has been trying to develop something in the western caribbean all month, or at least casually suggesting it most of the time. now the rest of the globals seem to be jumping aboard, though they differ greatly in details. there is broad low pressure down there, and with a very strong high forecast to build into the eastern u.s. later in the week, the corresponding pressure falls and synoptic gradient set up in the caribbean should put us into that classic setup that sometimes gives us a system. my take is that the models evolve the system too quickly, if it is to get going.. and not going with the NE solution gfs has the system taking. that's all if it can actually get going, and the low pressure doesn't move onshore in nicaragua before the environment configures to support it. still, the ingredients are now there.. we could have us another system later this week.
after all, the eastpac has spawned patricia.. usually have an atlantic system inside 6-10 of an eastpac development.. this one went down with mjo unfavorable, looking for the monsoon trough and synoptic factors to carve out a storm in spite of a large scale inhibiting pattern.
earlier i said i doubted nicholas would degenerate inside the forecast period.. looking like i'll miss that one.. really going downhill now.
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