may actually be tomorrow, but i'm aiming for friday for the disturbance in the caribbean to become a depression. low center seems to be evolving near 14/81.. not as broad as yesterday, not as elongated a windfield either. getting fairly certain that development is on the horizon. not ready to speculate on movement until a more defined system forms, but ready to say at first it should move erratically and perhaps drift NE.
nicholas is on the way out again, it seems. barring another convective fireworks show like the one it put up yesterday, probably on the slide. modeling has been variously retaining the system and phasing it with the trough moving to position in N-S fashion in the central atlantic. it may find a way to persist, but this is not a great likelihood.
over in the eastpac patricia changed its tune overnight and began losing its good convective signature... and is continuing west. how this will affect the upstream caribbean weather i don't know.. but no huge hurricane going up into mexico will alter the upper flow in the western caribbean.. look for a continue of the westerly jet, i suppose.
westpac activity suddenly booming.. thats our next mjo pulse.. due to arrive in early november if the basin has any charge left in it.
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