hmmm.. no closer today. still an elongated system, focal point at the southern end just north of panama, perhaps another bit of energy up near hispaniola. either can close off a low.. at the moment its a long trough with vorticity maxes. it can stay like this for days.. figured on friday, will stick with that.. but low confidence. globals have generally backed off a bit (though euro now has something developing in a few days, which it previously lacked). would have to be a deep system to do a lenny, and the upper jet would have to stay put (pattern SHOULD evolve into something else).
note that as of 5pm nhc is done with nicholas.. may be precocious, but its probably gone finally.
another odd outside chance of a system: globals like something back near the cape verdes. too late in the season, but if the trend persists....
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