just thumbed through the global models, and read the TPC's twd and this still yet unformed system seems to be taken seriously...Bastardi is basing all his on the ukmet I think which does show a well defined storm in the central gulf coast on Wednesday...today therefore will have to be a day wherein we see some definite signs of coallesence or else this thing may not go...I just viewed the sat loops and note an upper feature ne of puerto rico that looks rather vigorous..however the NHC suggested upper energy near the carolina coast would be the warming energy to take this to the surface, but I don't see that in the sat images I saw...also the locus of the upper low is much further south than suggested. The initial location by NHC suggested sw of bermuda ...in other words I think a lot has to happen yet to suggest this forcast will become reality... lets all watch this area with higher than normal interest though. EDS.
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