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Tropical Storm #Barry Has Formed in the SW Bay of Campeche. Flhurricane.com
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 233 (Sandy), in Florida: 2795 (Wilma)
TS Barry
ADV#10 5:00 pm EDT
19.6N 95.2W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Moving:
W at 6 mph
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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2106
Loc: Melbourne, FL
The Last Storm of the Season
      Fri Jun 18 2004 08:56 PM

As promised, here is a weekly statistical breakdown for the past 100 years of the last storm of the season. The format is the same. i.e., Week of the Season, Number (or percent) of years that the last storm occurred during that week, and a cumulative percentage. In a few rare years, the last storm of the season has occurred in the early part of the next year (January/February). It does happen, but these rare cases were not considered since they really did not add anything to the purpose of the analysis.

08/30 - 09/05: 1 'last storm' / 1 total
09/06 - 09/12: 1 / 2
09/13 - 09/19: 3 / 5
09/20 - 09/26: 5 / 10
09/27 - 10/03: 2 / 12
10/04 - 10/10: 9 / 21
10/11 - 10/17: 16 / 37
10/18 - 10/24: 15 / 52
10/25 - 10/31: 10 / 62
11/01 - 11/07: 10 / 72
11/08 - 11/14: 11 / 83
11/15 - 11/21: 6 / 89
11/22 - 11/28: 6 / 95
11/29 - 12/05: 0 / 95
12/06 - 12/12: 4 / 99
12/13 - 12/19: 0 / 99
12/20 - 12/26: 0 / 99
12/27 - 01/02: 1 / 100

Notes:
1930 had two storms for the season. The last one became a TS on 08/31.
1914 only had one storm - thus the first and the last storm of that season.
1954 - the second 'ALICE' of the season became a TS on 12/30 and remained a named storm through 01/06/55.
1993 and 2002 are recent examples of seasons that ended in September.
1984 and 2003 are recent examples of seasons that ended in December.

Don't know if any of this will really be of much help to you when it comes to deciding on when the last storm of this season will happen. Statistically the season ends between October 11th and October 24th.

My own SWAG for this year? - Well I'll pick November 11th
Cheers,
ED

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* When will the last storm of the 2004 season will form? Cycloneye Fri Jun 18 2004 08:56 PM
. * * Re: When will the last storm of the 2004 season will form? Cycloneye   Thu Jun 10 2004 09:54 PM
. * * Re: When will the last storm of the 2004 season will form? LadyStorm   Fri Jun 11 2004 05:34 AM
. * * Re: When will the last storm of the 2004 season will form? James88   Fri Jun 11 2004 01:51 PM
. * * Re: When will the last storm of the 2004 season will form? Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Jun 11 2004 04:21 PM
. * * The Last Storm of the Season Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Jun 18 2004 08:56 PM
. * * Re: The Last Storm of the Season Cycloneye   Fri Jun 18 2004 10:33 PM
. * * Re: When will the last storm of the 2004 season will form? LadyStorm   Sat Jun 12 2004 05:57 AM
. * * El Nino Influence? James88   Mon Jun 14 2004 05:47 PM
. * * Re: El Nino Influence? Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Jun 14 2004 07:00 PM
. * * Re: El Nino Influence? LI Phil   Mon Jun 14 2004 07:19 PM
. * * Re: El Nino Influence? James88   Tue Jun 15 2004 01:36 AM
. * * Re: When will the last storm of the 2004 season will form? Cycloneye   Fri Jun 11 2004 08:17 PM

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