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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 212 (Idalia) , Major: 212 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 212 (Idalia) Major: 212 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
gfs chills out
      Thu Jul 08 2004 10:17 PM

18z run looks very docile and dull compared to the last 3 days. something in gfs encoded mind must have remembered "oh, its july". vigorous waves are still present in the basin, only now there isn't much model hoopla over them. former 95L is progessing, now near 43w. it should be near 50w early saturday and from there on comes its real chance at development. gfs has a slightly more active TUTT than recent runs, though still probably not enough to preclude development. it's best chances are prior to the islands, july 10-11. the wave gfs was most enthusiastic about, near 30w, is trailing far to the south just as indicated. it has plenty of convection going for it, though not a great deal of organization. it may look better over time, but would likely be a couple days from depression stage. another wave should come off tomorrow or saturday and behave in the spirit of its immediate predecessors.
the northwest atlantic also has that interesting (though underachieving) feature 96L. it lacks the steady convection of a true depression, but may have some of the cyclonic structure. mediocre chances as it moves northeastward (fair environment, decent ssts, short time slot, other competing convection). this was an mcc core that was trailing the feature to its ne that was of interest a couple days ago.. may have a similar open-ended life cycle and never develop.
i'm feeling less confident about getting a storm or two out of the current activity.. but will be surprised if nothing gets going during the next few days.
by the way, potential season-wide implications as the strongly negative soi of june has caused much more extensive positive sst anomalies in the pacific from 150w to west of the dateline. a may-like positive soi rebound could trip this trend up, but if it doesn't we may be leaning to weak warm enso in august.
HF 0218z09july

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Watching Activity Near Bermuda MikeCAdministrator Thu Jul 08 2004 10:17 PM
. * * Re: Watching Activity Near Bermuda Cycloneye   Thu Jul 08 2004 01:05 PM
. * * Re: Watching Activity Near Bermuda James88   Thu Jul 08 2004 01:18 PM
. * * Re: Watching Activity Near Bermuda Rich B   Thu Jul 08 2004 01:50 PM
. * * Re: Watching Activity Near Bermuda James88   Thu Jul 08 2004 01:55 PM
. * * Re: Watching Activity Near Bermuda LI Phil   Thu Jul 08 2004 03:04 PM
. * * Re: Watching Activity Near Bermuda Jamiewx   Thu Jul 08 2004 03:18 PM
. * * Re: Watching Activity Near Bermuda Rich B   Thu Jul 08 2004 04:24 PM
. * * Re: Watching Activity Near Bermuda doug   Thu Jul 08 2004 04:40 PM
. * * Re: Watching Activity Near Bermuda Rich B   Thu Jul 08 2004 05:43 PM
. * * Re: Watching Activity Near Bermuda LI Phil   Thu Jul 08 2004 05:53 PM
. * * Re: Watching Activity Near Bermuda javlin   Thu Jul 08 2004 06:59 PM
. * * gfs chills out HanKFranK   Thu Jul 08 2004 10:17 PM
. * * 96L flares up James88   Fri Jul 09 2004 11:18 AM
. * * Re: 96L flares up doug   Fri Jul 09 2004 12:16 PM
. * * Re: 96L flares up Steve   Fri Jul 09 2004 03:19 PM
. * * Re: 96L flares up javlin   Fri Jul 09 2004 03:32 PM
. * * Re: 96L flares up summercyclone   Fri Jul 09 2004 05:12 PM
. * * Re: 96L flares up James88   Fri Jul 09 2004 05:26 PM
. * * Mess in the Yucatan LI Phil   Fri Jul 09 2004 07:18 PM
. * * Re: Mess in the Yucatan *DELETED* javlin   Fri Jul 09 2004 08:13 PM
. * * Re: Mess in the Yucatan LI Phil   Fri Jul 09 2004 08:21 PM
. * * Re: Mess in the Yucatan javlin   Sat Jul 10 2004 01:29 AM
. * * Hey All Rob_M   Sat Jul 10 2004 11:17 AM
. * * Re: Hey All LI Phil   Sat Jul 10 2004 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Hey All James88   Sat Jul 10 2004 01:38 PM
. * * Re: Hey All rmbjoe1954   Sat Jul 10 2004 03:22 PM
. * * Re: Hey All anonymous   Sat Jul 10 2004 05:49 PM
. * * RE:NHC DISCUSSION LONNY307   Wed Jul 14 2004 08:16 PM
. * * Re: RE:NHC DISCUSSION JasonM603   Wed Jul 14 2004 10:17 PM
. * * Re: Hey All James88   Sat Jul 10 2004 03:49 PM
. * * Re: Hey All Old Sailor   Sat Jul 10 2004 04:17 PM
. * * Re: Hey All Anonymous   Sat Jul 10 2004 04:20 PM
. * * Re: Hey All Rabbit   Sat Jul 10 2004 05:02 PM
. * * Re: Hey All Old Sailor   Sat Jul 10 2004 05:17 PM
. * * Re: Hey All LI Phil   Sat Jul 10 2004 05:14 PM
. * * Re: Hey All rmbjoe1954   Sat Jul 10 2004 05:21 PM
. * * Re: Hey All LI Phil   Sat Jul 10 2004 05:26 PM
. * * Re: Hey All Old Sailor   Sat Jul 10 2004 05:43 PM
. * * Re: Hey All Rabbit   Sat Jul 10 2004 05:07 PM
. * * My Prediction for FY2004 rmbjoe1954   Sat Jul 10 2004 05:00 PM
. * * Re: 96L flares up Steve   Fri Jul 09 2004 03:53 PM
. * * Re: 96L flares up James88   Fri Jul 09 2004 04:11 PM
. * * Keep watching 95L LI Phil   Fri Jul 09 2004 04:56 PM
. * * Re: Keep watching 95L James88   Fri Jul 09 2004 05:02 PM
. * * Curvature over the Yucatan Bobbi   Fri Jul 09 2004 04:37 PM
. * * Re: 96L flares up Rabbit   Fri Jul 09 2004 03:53 PM
. * * Re: 96L flares up James88   Fri Jul 09 2004 03:31 PM
. * * Vitriole... Steve   Thu Jul 08 2004 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Watching Activity Near Bermuda doug   Thu Jul 08 2004 12:42 PM
. * * Re: Watching Activity Near Bermuda James88   Thu Jul 08 2004 12:48 PM
. * * Re: Watching Activity Near Bermuda Rabbit   Thu Jul 08 2004 12:52 PM
. * * Re: Watching Activity Near Bermuda LI Phil   Thu Jul 08 2004 12:34 PM

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