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Archives 2002-2009 >> 2002 Storm Forum
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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
TS Cristobal - Update
      Wed Aug 07 2002 09:17 PM

Cristobal continues to go against conventional wisdom. After remaining quasi-stationary most of the day, during the past three hours the center has once again started a southward movement, perhaps even slightly west of due south, at about 6mph. With IR imagery its tough to pinpoint the center but NASA loops suggest a 00Z location at 29.6N 75.6W. Convection remains displaced to the east of the center. This is also the timeframe during Cristobal's daily cycle when regeneration has started and there is some hint of the convection trying to build in a little closer to the center - although I don't think that it will fully make it before being blown off to the east and northeast again. The digging trough has not yet captured the system but it is certainly drawing in some drier air in the upper levels to the west of the center. The slight nudge to the west of due south could be the start of an anticyclonic loop but its still too early to verify that event - might also be just a resumption of the southerly drift. Intensification in the near term is not likely, but on-shore showers and off-shore waterspouts will continue to develop (Melbourne radar hinted at a couple of low-topped waterspouts in the past hour). At this rate, Cristobal could even become extra-tropical in place, but that probably depends on what the convection does tonight and tomorrow.

While I'm at it, TD Bertha at 00Z was located near 28.7N 93.7W and continues a west southwest movement. Although I would not expect anything major, it is still quite possible that Bertha will slowly regain TS status. Its movement should keep most of its activity (if there is any which develops) south of the Houston area (but I'll defer to Greg B. on that call).

For those that inquired, yes I was sick for a couple of days - doing much better today
Cheers,
ED

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* Tropical Storm Cristobal Ed DunhamAdministrator Wed Aug 07 2002 09:17 PM
. * * TS Cristobal - Update Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 07 2002 09:17 PM

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