Bonnie looks like she's making a comeback, but boy is she a small storm. I'm reminded of a tropical depression from a few years ago - I think T.D. #4 from 2000 - that was a very small swirl of clouds. Bonnie's different in that it is sustaining some deep convection, but the overall impacts from this system aren't going to be felt over a very large region no matter what happens between now and landfall. That doesn't mean that everyone shouldn't be prepared, though. I had the privilege to have Craig Fugate, the director of the Fl. Division of Emer. Mgmt., speak at my local AMS chapter's banquet back in April and he spoke of changing outcomes - everyone in the affected areas shuld take the initiative to be prepared for anything and change their own outcomes. The warnings and information will be out there - people just need to heed it. I'll be interested to see what the global models do once they have the Gulfstream sampling data; should give us a clearer picture of the eventual track of Bonnie.
Similarly, it should give us an indication of the environment that Charley will head into down the road. Once we get to this time tomorrow, though, and the sampling data from the NW Caribbean is ingested into the models, we should get an even clearer picture on this storm. It's rapid forward speed is making a westward path less likely, but people in the western Gulf should still be watching it just in case. With that mass of clouds, it's hard to tell where exactly the low level center is without visible imagery, but I'd place it just south of the center of the mass. Wouldn't be shocked to see an eye pop out sometime overnight, but also wouldn't be shocked to see it maintain status quo for awhile. The basic models - like the BAM_ series, the A98E, etc - have really converged along with the GFDL on a Tampa Bay track for Charley in the next 4 days or so. It's strange to note that they are even more closely clustered than they are for Bonnie. Nonetheless, much can and will change and everyone in the Gulf should be mindful of the situation.
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