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Tropical Depression Two in unfavorible conditions, likely to fall apart or dissipate tomorrow.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 20 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3194 (8 y 8 m) (Wilma)
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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
11am discussion
      Wed Aug 11 2004 10:52 AM

reconnaissance and satellite data...and reports from NOAA buoy 42001
...Indicate Tropical Storm Bonnie has become much better organized
and has strengthened. Buoy 42001 located about 45 nmi northeast of
the center reported a 10-minute average wind of 41 kt with a gust
to 52 kt. Gradient wind computations using a 10 mb pressure
difference between Bonnie and buoy 42001 indicate near 50-kt winds
are possible. Therefore...the intensity has been conservatively
increased to 45 kt.
The initial motion estimate is 025/05. It appears that Bonnie has
passed north of the mid-level ridge axis that extends westward from
South Florida and is coming under the influence of an approaching
shortwave trough located over the Southern Plains. Bonnie is
expected to gradually accelerate over the next 24 hours and turn
more northeastward later today...if it hasn't done so already. The
global and regional models remain in good agreement on landfall
occurring Thursday morning in the Florida Panhandle. The main
concern is that with the mid-level winds forecast to become
southwest or west-southwesterly by 24 hours...Bonnie could make a
sharp turn more toward the east-northeast or east just before
landfall occurs. This would be to the right of the current forecast
track and this scenario will be closely evaluated for the next
advisory. Due to the uncertainty in the exact location and
intensity at landfall...a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane
Watch have been issued for the previous tropical Strom watch area.
The intensity forecast remains problematic with the burst of deep
convection...tops as cold as -83c...that has developed over the
center this morning. If recon finds an eye or eyewall forming later
this afternoon...then it is possible that Bonnie could become a
hurricane between the 12 and 24 hour time periods...before
weakening occurs due to increasing wind shear just before landfall.
Factors supporting possible strengthening to hurricane intensity
are -- better inner-core wind field organization currently
ongoing...deep convection currently over the center...low shear
expected for the next 12 hours or so...and Bonnie passing over a
warmer Gulf Eddy in 12-18 hours during the nocturnal convective
maximum period tonight and tomorrow morning.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
The good news is that Bonnie is not forecasted to make hurricane strength.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies Ed DunhamAdministrator Wed Aug 11 2004 10:52 AM
. * * It's kinda hard to tell... Cocoa Beach   Wed Aug 11 2004 10:30 AM
. * * Re: It's kinda hard to tell... SirCane   Wed Aug 11 2004 10:32 AM
. * * Re: It's kinda hard to tell... LI Phil   Wed Aug 11 2004 10:32 AM
. * * possibly a direct hit bobbi   Wed Aug 11 2004 11:02 AM
. * * Re:recon Bonnie? Anonymous   Wed Aug 11 2004 10:43 AM
. * * Re:recon Bonnie? Anonymous   Wed Aug 11 2004 10:49 AM
. * * 11am discussion LI Phil   Wed Aug 11 2004 10:52 AM
. * * Re: 11am discussion SirCane   Wed Aug 11 2004 10:59 AM
. * * question? bobbi   Wed Aug 11 2004 11:09 AM
. * * PS question? bobbi   Wed Aug 11 2004 11:11 AM
. * * Re: PS question? Anonymous   Wed Aug 11 2004 11:16 AM
. * * Bonnie Anonymous   Wed Aug 11 2004 11:28 AM
. * * Re: Bonnie GaryC   Wed Aug 11 2004 11:40 AM
. * * Tampa Preparations Colleen A.   Wed Aug 11 2004 11:55 AM
. * * Re: Bonnie Steve hirschb.   Wed Aug 11 2004 11:37 AM
. * * Charley PFSThunder   Wed Aug 11 2004 11:41 AM
. * * Re: Charley Steve hirschb.   Wed Aug 11 2004 11:52 AM
. * * Re: Charley Colleen A.   Wed Aug 11 2004 11:58 AM
. * * Re: Charley Anonymous   Wed Aug 11 2004 12:00 PM
. * * NEW THREAD LI Phil   Wed Aug 11 2004 12:01 PM
. * * Re: PS question? GaryC   Wed Aug 11 2004 11:23 AM
. * * For Gary C. LI Phil   Wed Aug 11 2004 11:41 AM
. * * Re: PS question? joepub1   Wed Aug 11 2004 11:40 AM
. * * South of Jamaica, but close Frank P   Wed Aug 11 2004 11:22 AM
. * * Re: 11am discussion James88   Wed Aug 11 2004 10:55 AM
. * * Re: 11am discussion joepub1   Wed Aug 11 2004 11:08 AM
. * * Re: 11am discussion rmbjoe1954   Wed Aug 11 2004 11:12 AM
. * * Re: 11am discussion hurricane_run   Wed Aug 11 2004 11:37 AM
. * * Re: 11am discussion Anonymous   Wed Aug 11 2004 11:39 AM
. * * Re: 11am discussion hurricane_run   Wed Aug 11 2004 11:42 AM
. * * Re: 11am discussion Hardcore   Wed Aug 11 2004 11:50 AM
. * * Re: 11am discussion doug   Wed Aug 11 2004 12:03 PM
. * * Re: 11am discussion wxman007   Wed Aug 11 2004 11:52 AM
. * * Re: 11am discussion Anonymous   Wed Aug 11 2004 11:54 AM
. * * Re: 11am discussion joepub1   Wed Aug 11 2004 11:37 AM
. * * Re: It's kinda hard to tell... MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 11 2004 10:31 AM
. * * Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 11 2004 04:24 AM
. * * Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 11 2004 04:39 AM
. * * Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 11 2004 05:18 AM
. * * Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 11 2004 05:27 AM
. * * Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies LoisCane   Wed Aug 11 2004 06:29 AM
. * * Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies LadyStorm   Wed Aug 11 2004 06:22 AM
. * * Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 11 2004 06:29 AM
. * * Re: Charley Recon Airborne danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 11 2004 06:30 AM
. * * Re: Bonnie WV signature danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 11 2004 06:57 AM
. * * Re: Charley Recon Airborne Matt33   Wed Aug 11 2004 06:38 AM
. * * Re: Charley Recon Airborne Carl   Wed Aug 11 2004 06:57 AM
. * * going shopping... LoisCane   Wed Aug 11 2004 07:31 AM
. * * Re: going shopping... Hardcore   Wed Aug 11 2004 07:38 AM
. * * bonnie was jealous... bobbi   Wed Aug 11 2004 09:08 AM
. * * Re: going shopping... Steve hirschb.   Wed Aug 11 2004 07:45 AM
. * * Re: going shopping... Colleen A.   Wed Aug 11 2004 08:26 AM
. * * Link to discussion Cocoa Beach   Wed Aug 11 2004 08:35 AM
. * * Re: Link to discussion Colleen A.   Wed Aug 11 2004 08:46 AM
. * * Re: Link to discussion Cocoa Beach   Wed Aug 11 2004 08:52 AM
. * * Re: going shopping... Anonymous   Wed Aug 11 2004 08:31 AM
. * * Re: going shopping... Anonymous   Wed Aug 11 2004 08:50 AM
. * * Charley vortex message Clark   Wed Aug 11 2004 08:54 AM
. * * Re: Charley vortex message jth   Wed Aug 11 2004 09:02 AM
. * * Re: Charley vortex message Clark   Wed Aug 11 2004 10:00 AM
. * * More from TWC Clark   Wed Aug 11 2004 10:03 AM
. * * Re: More from TWC SirCane   Wed Aug 11 2004 10:11 AM
. * * Bonnie's turnabout Clark   Wed Aug 11 2004 10:51 AM
. * * Re: Convergence of systems and timing doug   Wed Aug 11 2004 09:15 AM
. * * Re: Convergence of systems and timing bobbi   Wed Aug 11 2004 09:36 AM
. * * Re: Convergence of systems and timing St. David   Wed Aug 11 2004 09:22 AM
. * * Re: Convergence of systems and timing Ronn   Wed Aug 11 2004 09:31 AM
. * * Re: Convergence of systems and timing jth   Wed Aug 11 2004 09:26 AM
. * * Re: Convergence of systems and timing joepub1   Wed Aug 11 2004 09:39 AM
. * * Re: Convergence of systems and timing jth   Wed Aug 11 2004 10:12 AM
. * * Re: Convergence of systems and timing GaryC   Wed Aug 11 2004 10:17 AM
. * * Re: Convergence of systems and timing joepub1   Wed Aug 11 2004 10:26 AM
. * * Charley's Projected Path rmbjoe1954   Wed Aug 11 2004 10:30 AM
. * * Models LI Phil   Wed Aug 11 2004 10:16 AM
. * * Re: Models FlaRebel   Wed Aug 11 2004 10:21 AM
. * * Re: Convergence of systems and timing doug   Wed Aug 11 2004 09:51 AM
. * * for doug on good writing bobbi   Wed Aug 11 2004 10:03 AM
. * * Re: Convergence of systems and timing joepub1   Wed Aug 11 2004 10:00 AM
. * * Re: Convergence of systems and timing joepub1   Wed Aug 11 2004 09:42 AM
. * * Re: Convergence of systems and timing javlin   Wed Aug 11 2004 10:08 AM
. * * HWO MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 11 2004 10:16 AM
. * * Re: Convergence of systems and timing joepub1   Wed Aug 11 2004 09:51 AM
. * * Craziness & Seriousness LI Phil   Wed Aug 11 2004 10:07 AM
. * * Re: Charley vortex message Colleen A.   Wed Aug 11 2004 09:09 AM
. * * Re: Charley vortex message hardcore   Thu Aug 12 2004 08:08 PM
. * * Re: Charley vortex message Anonymous   Wed Aug 11 2004 10:04 AM
. * * Emergency Management Cocoa Beach   Wed Aug 11 2004 09:14 AM
. * * Re: Emergency Management Colleen A.   Wed Aug 11 2004 09:19 AM
. * * Re: Charley vortex message Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Wed Aug 11 2004 09:13 AM
. * * Not a good time to start crying "Wolf" Anonymous   Wed Aug 11 2004 09:17 AM
. * * Re: Not a good time to start crying "Wolf" Anonymous   Wed Aug 11 2004 09:31 AM
. * * Re: going shopping... Frank P   Wed Aug 11 2004 08:38 AM
. * * Re: going shopping... jth   Wed Aug 11 2004 08:42 AM
. * * West Movement Colleen A.   Wed Aug 11 2004 08:54 AM
. * * Re: going shopping... Anonymous   Wed Aug 11 2004 08:52 AM
. * * Re: going shopping... Colleen A.   Wed Aug 11 2004 09:00 AM
. * * Re: going shopping... jlauderdal   Wed Aug 11 2004 09:06 AM
. * * Re: going shopping... Anonymous   Wed Aug 11 2004 09:13 AM
. * * Re: going shopping... Colleen A.   Wed Aug 11 2004 09:13 AM
. * * TIA Colleen A.   Wed Aug 11 2004 08:34 AM
. * * Quick Link to Kingston Jamacia Cocoa Beach   Wed Aug 11 2004 08:15 AM
. * * Re: going shopping... Colleen A.   Wed Aug 11 2004 08:15 AM
. * * Re: going shopping... hey coleen bobbi   Wed Aug 11 2004 09:11 AM
. * * Re: going shopping... hey coleen Colleen A.   Wed Aug 11 2004 09:17 AM
. * * WOW jth   Wed Aug 11 2004 08:15 AM
. * * Re: going shopping... Anonymous   Wed Aug 11 2004 08:14 AM
. * * Analyze what we know RedingtonBeachGuy   Wed Aug 11 2004 06:20 AM
. * * Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies javlin   Wed Aug 11 2004 12:37 AM
. * * Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies Steve Hirschb.   Wed Aug 11 2004 12:48 AM
. * * Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies (good thread name) LoisCane   Wed Aug 11 2004 12:53 AM
. * * Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies (good thread name) javlin   Wed Aug 11 2004 01:14 AM
. * * Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies (good thread name) Steve Hirschb.   Wed Aug 11 2004 01:21 AM
. * * Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies (good thread name) javlin   Wed Aug 11 2004 01:27 AM
. * * Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies (good thread name) joepub1   Wed Aug 11 2004 02:31 AM
. * * Charley starting to weaken again? Anonymous   Wed Aug 11 2004 04:00 AM
. * * Re: Charley starting to weaken again? Anonymous   Wed Aug 11 2004 04:08 AM
. * * Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies HURRICANE EYE   Wed Aug 11 2004 01:14 AM
. * * Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies Colleen A.   Wed Aug 11 2004 12:22 AM
. * * Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies Old Sailor   Wed Aug 11 2004 12:30 AM
. * * Re: Bonnie Hangs On - Charley Intensifies Clark   Wed Aug 11 2004 12:20 AM

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