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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 201 (Idalia) , Major: 201 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 201 (Idalia) Major: 201 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Charley's future
      Sat Aug 14 2004 12:00 AM

Charley is emerging off the coast near Daytona Beach at this time - I'll be interested to see what TWC has when they can start up live reports once again. Sanford reported a wind gust to 92mph. Got another report from a friend on damage on the east side of Orlando - doesn't look good. Numerous trees down, some on houses, and thinking it may be a few days to get everything cleared out. He's heading there tomorrow with supplies, as they will likely be short to come by in Orlando, to help out his family. No word from St. Cloud, where my family has a lot of friends, but I can't imagine it's going to be very good - many, many trees in the older residential parts of that town, with potential tornado reports earlier in the day in the newer parts of town to the east and to the south.

The waters off of the Florida coast are warm, but the NHC is correct in saying that they are not as warm as off of Ft. Myers. I took a look at the SST map for that area and there indeed is a warm pool from the southern tip of Florida up to near where the storm made landfall; this likely contributed to the increase in intensity before it made landfall. However, despite the difference in temperatures, it's not great and really is the difference between about 85 and 88 degrees. The system is moving fast enough to the NE to make shear less of a concern for future development. The inner core held together very well as it crossed the state of Florida, almost surprisingly so in fact. Most models take the storm inland again in 12-18 hrs in Myrtle Beach, with some minor strengthening forecast, followed by a path up the eastern seaboard. That's what the NHC is going with, but I've got a couple of qualms.

First, Charlie's landfall - like Alex, like Bonnie - has shown a rightward bias. There is a common problem with these storms in the models, and I tend to think a second landfall will likely be further east once again - and not just for this reason. Wilmington to the Cape - Alex's region - is where I'm looking, which would keep the center over water longer. But, everyone up the SC & NC coasts should be prepared.

Coincidentally, with the warm waters and relatively low storm-relative shear on the path I foresee, some additional strengthening is likely. The latest shear analysis shows 50kt of shear along the shore, but offshore it is only around 30kt. Without the trough digging very much and Charley moving at about 25mph right now, relative shear is still going to be relatively low for awhile over the waters - probably 5-15mph, gradually increasing with time. The NHC thinks there will be more, likely a consequence on their forecast, which could well verify. However, I think there is the potential for this storm to strengthen more than they anticipate.

Relatively warm waters with a well-defined inner core and not entirely unfavorable conditions all play a role in my reasoning. But, the question becomes, how much strengthening? While one of my friends who I trust is saying it could well get to cat. 4 again, I'm not buying that strong. I would not be surprised to see a high end cat. 2 - maybe around 105-110mph - at landfall. Note that the NHC is lower, around 90mph; I'm not discounting this, but am pointing out the potential for more than they forecast. Landfall somewhere between Wilmington and the Cape (Hatteras) is likely in the 18hr time frame, plus or minus a few hours. People along the NC & SC coasts need to be rushing plans to completion because this storm certainly is not done with wreaking havoc as of yet.

I've heard some stories from inside the Florida EOC today that are not all too flattering about how the Hurricane Center has handled Charley, and on the outside from what I've seen, I can agree to a point. However, they are still the authorities and still should be the ones to trust in any situation like this...I just disagree with them underestimating this storm's potential consistantly, particularly once inland. Telling a county's emergency mgmt. team that they are going to experience 75-85mph winds when the storm is over them with their own advisories saying the winds are at 115mph is just not right. The local NWS groups have handled this very well, though I hope there is no backlash in Tampa from evacuating everyone...one only need point at Punta Gorda, Port Charlotte, and Orlando to see what could have been. This is going to be a wake up call for the entire state, and despite being fairly well prepared this time, many in Orlando were not prepared for that they experienced. Next time, they will be.

Watch Charley for the next day or two, then it should finally be out of our hair. Don't discount more strengthening than the NHC is forecasting, but always err on their side when in doubt. NC & SC need to be prepared for the worst and should be rushing those plans to completion now. We're looking at tens of billions of dollars in damage from this storm, with a total that's only going to go up with time.

Danielle and TD 5 look to both be getting better organized; it's the latter of the two I'm most worried about. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out down the road, but 5 days from now we'll probably see a storm in a similar spot to where Charlie was a night or two ago. I'm not even going to bother forecasting it's intensity, seeing no fault in the NHC's forecast, having not had the chance to look at everything myself, and five days out having large errors anyway. Danielle may well be a fish spinner, but I think we need to get a better handle on what it is going to do over the next day or two before declaring that to be so. The NHC will probably flip-flop on it a couple of times, but it's 10 days away in any case. Tropics are active, so everyone needs to be vigilent and just hope we don't end up with another storm near Florida this season...they've had enough.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Category 4 Hurricane Charley Landfalls north of Ft. Myers Central Florida Bracing MikeCAdministrator Sat Aug 14 2004 12:00 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Hurricane Charley Landfalls north of Ft. Myers Central Florida Bracing bigjohnflorida   Wed Aug 25 2004 08:24 PM
. * * Re: Category 4 Hurricane Charley Landfalls north of Ft. Myers Central Florida Bracing StormLover   Sat Aug 14 2004 10:37 PM
. * * Re: Category 4 Hurricane Charley Landfalls north of Ft. Myers Central Florida Bracing SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Sun Aug 15 2004 12:33 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Hurricane Charley Landfalls north of Ft. Myers Central Florida Bracing StormLover   Sat Aug 14 2004 10:30 PM
. * * Re: Category 4 Hurricane Charley Landfalls north of Ft. Myers Central Florida Bracing Anonymous   Fri Aug 13 2004 06:19 PM
. * * Re: Category 4 Hurricane Charley Landfalls north of Ft. Myers Central Florida Bracing Chatty   Fri Aug 13 2004 05:57 PM
. * * Re: Category 4 Hurricane Charley Landfalls north of Ft. Myers Central Florida Bracing alan   Fri Aug 13 2004 06:05 PM
. * * Tornadoes Jamiewx   Fri Aug 13 2004 06:01 PM
. * * South Carolina rjp   Fri Aug 13 2004 06:06 PM
. * * Arcadia FL Update WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Aug 13 2004 06:10 PM
. * * Early Rain Band recmod   Fri Aug 13 2004 06:23 PM
. * * Re: Early Rain Band recmod   Fri Aug 13 2004 06:28 PM
. * * Ominous Picture La Girl   Fri Aug 13 2004 06:50 PM
. * * Re: Ominous Picture Jeffmidtown   Fri Aug 13 2004 06:56 PM
. * * Re: Ominous Picture StormHound   Fri Aug 13 2004 06:59 PM
. * * Re: Ominous Picture Ronn   Fri Aug 13 2004 07:44 PM
. * * Weather Conditions Jamiewx   Fri Aug 13 2004 07:51 PM
. * * Re: Weather Conditions OrlandoWaiting   Fri Aug 13 2004 07:53 PM
. * * Re: Weather Conditions alan   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:01 PM
. * * Re: Weather Conditions Anonymous   Fri Aug 20 2004 11:30 AM
. * * Re: Weather Conditions OrlandoWaiting   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:04 PM
. * * Peak Gusts? RichD   Sat Aug 14 2004 07:20 AM
. * * Preliminary Damage Photos recmod   Sat Aug 14 2004 08:39 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos recmod   Sat Aug 14 2004 08:41 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos Frank P   Sat Aug 14 2004 08:50 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos Roberta   Sat Aug 14 2004 10:28 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos joepub1   Sat Aug 14 2004 11:07 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos Karen   Sun Aug 15 2004 12:37 PM
. * * joepub and wxwatcherdeux LI Phil   Sat Aug 14 2004 11:26 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos Jeffmidtown   Sat Aug 14 2004 10:38 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos Wxwatcher2   Sat Aug 14 2004 11:14 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos LI Phil   Sat Aug 14 2004 10:35 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos Roberta   Sat Aug 14 2004 10:56 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos Wxwatcher2   Sat Aug 14 2004 11:28 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos Kimster   Sat Aug 14 2004 10:31 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos GuppieGrouper   Sat Aug 14 2004 09:35 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos recmod   Sat Aug 14 2004 12:01 PM
. * * Earl next rickonboat   Sat Aug 14 2004 12:22 PM
. * * Re: Earl next StormLover   Sat Aug 14 2004 10:43 PM
. * * Re: Earl next rickonboat   Sat Aug 14 2004 12:38 PM
. * * Re: Earl next GuppieGrouper   Sat Aug 14 2004 12:46 PM
. * * Re: Earl next Rabbit   Sat Aug 14 2004 01:40 PM
. * * Re: Earl next James88   Sat Aug 14 2004 01:47 PM
. * * Re: Earl next BillD   Sat Aug 14 2004 03:16 PM
. * * Final Analysis on Charley FlaRebel   Sat Aug 14 2004 02:06 PM
. * * Re: Final Analysis on Charley Londovir   Sat Aug 14 2004 03:01 PM
. * * Arcadia damage Aunt Debbie S   Sat Aug 14 2004 05:00 PM
. * * Re: Arcadia damage Anonymous   Wed Aug 25 2004 04:24 PM
. * * Re: Arcadia damage Anonymous   Tue Aug 17 2004 01:26 PM
. * * Re: Arcadia damage LI Phil   Tue Aug 17 2004 01:47 PM
. * * Re: Arcadia damage Anonymous   Tue Aug 17 2004 01:23 PM
. * * Viper radar Pics of Charley WOW 1234   Sat Aug 14 2004 06:16 PM
. * * Re: Viper radar Pics of Charley WOW Tom U.   Mon Aug 16 2004 12:51 PM
. * * Re: Final Analysis on Charley bsnyder   Sat Aug 14 2004 03:15 PM
. * * TD5 update Jamiewx   Sat Aug 14 2004 03:18 PM
. * * Re: Final Analysis on Charley DroopGB31   Sat Aug 14 2004 03:12 PM
. * * Evacuations bsnyder   Sat Aug 14 2004 02:51 PM
. * * Re: Evacuations Ricreig   Mon Aug 16 2004 12:04 PM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos recmod   Sat Aug 14 2004 11:58 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos recmod   Sat Aug 14 2004 11:57 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos recmod   Sat Aug 14 2004 11:56 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos recmod   Sat Aug 14 2004 11:55 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos Rich B   Sat Aug 14 2004 10:06 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos LI Phil   Sat Aug 14 2004 09:18 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos joepub1   Sat Aug 14 2004 10:00 AM
. * * Re: Preliminary Damage Photos PFSThunder   Sat Aug 14 2004 10:09 AM
. * * lee/charlotte/desoto/hardee HanKFranK   Sat Aug 14 2004 10:34 AM
. * * Re: lee/charlotte/desoto/hardee Kimster   Sat Aug 14 2004 11:34 AM
. * * TD 5 Model runs Frank P   Sat Aug 14 2004 10:24 AM
. * * Re: TD 5 Model runs LI Phil   Sat Aug 14 2004 10:28 AM
. * * Re: TD 5 Model runs 52255225   Sat Aug 14 2004 10:26 AM
. * * Re: TD5 model runs Frank P   Sat Aug 14 2004 10:06 AM
. * * Re: TD5 model runs joepub1   Sat Aug 14 2004 10:34 AM
. * * Here we go again!! Jamiewx   Sat Aug 14 2004 09:25 AM
. * * Re: Here we go again!! Frank P   Sat Aug 14 2004 09:41 AM
. * * Re: Here we go again!! Terri   Sat Aug 14 2004 09:57 AM
. * * Re: Here we go again!! LI Phil   Sat Aug 14 2004 09:49 AM
. * * Re: Here we go again!! 52255225   Sat Aug 14 2004 09:47 AM
. * * Re: Here we go again!! Frank P   Sat Aug 14 2004 09:52 AM
. * * Re: Here we go again!! Frank P   Sat Aug 14 2004 09:40 AM
. * * Preliminary Damage Photos recmod   Sat Aug 14 2004 08:38 AM
. * * Preliminary Damage Photos recmod   Sat Aug 14 2004 08:37 AM
. * * Re: Weather Conditions Wxwatcher2   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:26 PM
. * * Re: Weather Conditions Floridacane   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:32 PM
. * * Re: Weather Conditions Jeffmidtown   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:35 PM
. * * Re: Weather Conditions GuppieGrouper   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:42 PM
. * * Re: Weather Conditions Jeffmidtown   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:51 PM
. * * Cape Canaveral report troy2   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:51 PM
. * * Re: Cape Canaveral report troy2   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:54 PM
. * * Impressive Wind Jamiewx   Fri Aug 13 2004 09:02 PM
. * * Re: Impressive Wind danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 13 2004 09:10 PM
. * * Danny-boy LI Phil   Fri Aug 13 2004 09:17 PM
. * * Re: Impressive Wind WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Aug 13 2004 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Impressive Wind danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 13 2004 09:18 PM
. * * Re: Impressive Wind Frank P   Fri Aug 13 2004 09:30 PM
. * * Re: Impressive Wind danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 13 2004 09:53 PM
. * * Re: Impressive Wind recmod   Fri Aug 13 2004 10:23 PM
. * * NOAA Weather Radio Jamiewx   Fri Aug 13 2004 10:29 PM
. * * Re: NOAA Weather Radio danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 13 2004 10:38 PM
. * * Re: NOAA Weather Radio Jamiewx   Fri Aug 13 2004 10:40 PM
. * * Re: NOAA Weather Radio Aunt Debbie S   Fri Aug 13 2004 10:44 PM
. * * Re:Local Storm Reports danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 13 2004 10:55 PM
. * * Re:Local Storm Reports Aunt Debbie S   Fri Aug 13 2004 11:17 PM
. * * Re:Charley danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 13 2004 11:25 PM
. * * Re:Charley Wxwatcher2   Sat Aug 14 2004 12:03 AM
. * * Re:Charley palmetto   Fri Aug 13 2004 11:32 PM
. * * Re:Charley Steve   Fri Aug 13 2004 11:46 PM
. * * Re:Charley wxman007   Fri Aug 13 2004 11:50 PM
. * * Re:Charley danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 13 2004 11:42 PM
. * * Re:Daytona Weather danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 13 2004 11:44 PM
. * * Re:Peak Winds at airports danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 13 2004 11:57 PM
. * * Re: NOAA Weather Radio BabyCat   Fri Aug 13 2004 10:33 PM
. * * Some reports.... wxman007   Fri Aug 13 2004 10:39 PM
. * * Re: Some reports.... Ormond Suzie   Fri Aug 13 2004 11:16 PM
. * * Re: Some reports.... BabyCat   Fri Aug 13 2004 10:48 PM
. * * Re: Some reports.... SirCane   Fri Aug 13 2004 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Weather Conditions BillD   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:22 PM
. * * Re: Weather Conditions MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:14 PM
. * * Re: Weather Conditions MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 13 2004 09:52 PM
. * * Orlando report Clark   Fri Aug 13 2004 10:55 PM
. * * Charley's future Clark   Sat Aug 14 2004 12:00 AM
. * * Re: Charley's future danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 14 2004 12:32 AM
. * * Re: Charley's future Clark   Sat Aug 14 2004 12:43 AM
. * * Re: Charley's future SirCane   Sat Aug 14 2004 01:25 AM
. * * Re: Charley's past danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 14 2004 12:48 AM
. * * Re: Charley's past DroopGB31   Sat Aug 14 2004 01:39 AM
. * * Re: Charley's past danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 14 2004 01:57 AM
. * * Re: Charley Recon Fix danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 14 2004 01:58 AM
. * * Danielle & Earl LI Phil   Sat Aug 14 2004 05:06 AM
. * * Re: Danielle & Earl AngB   Sat Aug 14 2004 05:12 AM
. * * Re: Danielle & Earl James88   Sat Aug 14 2004 05:57 AM
. * * Re: Charley's future Steve   Sat Aug 14 2004 12:35 AM
. * * More reports Clark   Sat Aug 14 2004 12:21 AM
. * * Hunter's Creek Area StormHound   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:17 PM
. * * charlie Anonymous   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:19 PM
. * * Re: charlie DMFischer   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:26 PM
. * * Re: charlie alan   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:33 PM
. * * Re: charlie Clark   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:40 PM
. * * charlie/ORlando Aunt Debbie S   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:49 PM
. * * Re: charlie Aunt Debbie   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:25 PM
. * * Re: charlie OrlandoWaiting   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:21 PM
. * * Hey, Orlando waiting... LI Phil   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:23 PM
. * * Re: Hey, Orlando waiting... MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:29 PM
. * * Re: Weather Conditions OrlandoWaiting   Fri Aug 13 2004 08:00 PM
. * * Re: Weather Conditions AgentB   Fri Aug 13 2004 07:53 PM
. * * Re: Weather Conditions h2ocean   Fri Aug 13 2004 07:58 PM
. * * Re: Ominous Picture Jeffmidtown   Fri Aug 13 2004 07:26 PM
. * * Re: Ominous Picture BillD   Fri Aug 13 2004 07:39 PM
. * * Re: Ominous Picture Tanbark   Fri Aug 13 2004 07:37 PM
. * * SW Orlando StormHound   Fri Aug 13 2004 07:43 PM
. * * Disney under the gun... LI Phil   Fri Aug 13 2004 07:36 PM
. * * Re: Disney under the gun... Wxwatcher2   Fri Aug 13 2004 07:39 PM
. * * Re: Early Rain Band Chad   Fri Aug 13 2004 06:46 PM
. * * Re: Early Rain Band alan   Fri Aug 13 2004 06:28 PM
. * * Re: Early Rain Band StormHound   Fri Aug 13 2004 06:53 PM
. * * Re: Arcadia FL Update Jeffmidtown   Fri Aug 13 2004 06:17 PM
. * * Re: Category 4 Hurricane Charley Landfalls north of Ft. Myers Central Florida Bracing Anonymous   Fri Aug 13 2004 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Category 4 Hurricane Charley Landfalls north of Ft. Myers Central Florida Bracing Michelle   Fri Aug 13 2004 05:16 PM
. * * Flights LI Phil   Fri Aug 13 2004 05:02 PM
. * * Re: Flights GuppieGrouper   Fri Aug 13 2004 05:09 PM
. * * Polk County Colleen A.   Fri Aug 13 2004 05:39 PM
. * * Re: Polk County SirCane   Fri Aug 13 2004 06:07 PM
. * * close to home HanKFranK   Fri Aug 13 2004 06:21 PM
. * * Re: close to home -- storm report spookmcg   Fri Aug 13 2004 07:42 PM
. * * An update and a thanks LI Phil   Fri Aug 13 2004 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Polk County WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Aug 13 2004 05:56 PM
. * * Re: Polk County StormHound   Fri Aug 13 2004 05:45 PM
. * * Re: Polk County DMFischer   Fri Aug 13 2004 05:55 PM
. * * Re: Flights WeatherNLU   Fri Aug 13 2004 05:10 PM
. * * Re: Flights AmateurJohn   Fri Aug 13 2004 05:24 PM
. * * Arcadia FL WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Aug 13 2004 05:31 PM
. * * Re: Flights StormHound   Fri Aug 13 2004 05:28 PM
. * * Stormhound... LI Phil   Fri Aug 13 2004 05:31 PM
. * * Highest Winds WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Aug 13 2004 05:36 PM
. * * Re: Flights Anonymous   Fri Aug 13 2004 05:17 PM
. * * Re: Category 4 Hurricane Charley Landfalls north of Ft. Myers Central Florida Bracing palmetto   Fri Aug 13 2004 05:01 PM

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