For the purpose of this study, 32 variables were considered. The list of these variables can be found here. The historical data for the past years, from 1950 forward was used for the tropical cyclone information, the best track data from the National Hurricane Center was used for the location information. Each of the 32 variables was given a weighting and a tolerance value. The results can be viewed here. Only the years when the "match" was at least 80% were used. It was determined that the analog years since 1950, or those that best "fit" this year's conditions through the end of September are 1972, 1985, 1988, 1990, 1995, 2002.
The forecasts have been made using the basic formation points, and tracks of the storms from June 1 through November 30 for the analog years. There is a measure of "feel" involved in the final forecast, but this is simply the prerogative of the individual doing the study.
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