EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 134 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004 VALID 12Z TUE AUG 17 2004 - 12Z SAT AUG 21 2004 ...FINAL MODEL DISCUSSION...
A BLOCKY LATE SUMMER PATTERN AT HIGHER LATITUDES WILL MODIFY THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP CLOSED LOW IN THE ERN GLF AK WEAKENS AND RETROGRADES WWD WHILE A SUB ARCTIC VORTEX DROPS SWD BETWEEN TWO STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGES IN TO CENTRAL CANADA. AGAIN A VERY ANOMALOUS PATTERN WITH HTS WELL BELOW NORMAL. SWD OVER SRN CONUS A MEAN SEPARATE MORE SRN STREAM TROF WILL WORK EWD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO THE MS VALLEY WHERE IT WILL PARTIALLY PHASEE WITH THE DEEP MEAN TROF NWD IN THE SRN CANADIAN PLAINS. THIS RESULTS IN RAISING HTS OVER THE SERN SEABOARD AND ADJACENT CARRIBEAN.
...ATLC TROPICS... CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC TROPICS BECOMING QUITE ACTIVE WITH TWO CURRENT SYSTEMS WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 AND T.S. DANIELLE BOTH FORECAST TO BECOME HURCNS IN A FEW DAYS. MOST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME HAS DANIELLE TURNING WELL NWD IN THE OPEN ATLC. T.D. 5 FORECAST TO COME S OF THE GREATER ANTILLES TO NR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY DAY 5 THU POSSIBLY THREATENING SRN OR SERN GULFMEX NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER WRN AFRICAN DISTURBANCE SEEN BY LONGER TERM MODEL RUNS COMING INTO THE CENTRAL TROP ATLC...MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AT THAT TIME RANGE BUT LONGER TERM TREND OF GFS/ECMWF IS TO RAISE W ATLC/CARIB HTS WHILE GFS INDICATES THIS AS A POTENTIALLY STRONG SYSTEM FOR SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. SEE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES AND DISCUSSIONS. ROSENSTEIN
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