I'm going to give my take on Earl and Danielle, and stay out of the fray. Well never mind, it's gone now.
Earl is looking OK this morning, recon finding some good winds on the N side. Center may not be closed, but then Charley I swear was a hurricane and still had an open eyewall at some point, so I don't think it's a big thing. Still young in it's life. He seems to want to stay to the left of NHC's path that they keep drawing for him, and hankfrankly, if I don't see some north movement pretty soon, I don't think he'll ever get to either the 5 or 11 am (Sun) forecasts. I'm almost ready to let myself start thinking this is a panhandle-west storm at worse (looking at it from where I'm at). I had a thought about eight hours ago that if Danielle made it past 40W as a hurricane she might start to weaken the ridge, allowing a more northern turn, and in fact the NHC in their discussion said that myself and the U.K. Met might be the only two people or models thinking that. The way he's running hard to the west makes it unlikely to happen. He would have to almost stall somewhere to make me think he was FL bound. JB may indeed have his storm.
Danielle is a fish, yet could affect somebody's weather by having an effect on Earl's stearing. Watch what she does.
To think that 3 weeks ago I thought my numbers of 13/8/4 were a bad batch. Now I wonder if I'm going to be too low. And being in Florida I will say that if anybody from any other state would like to wishcast Earl upon themselves, please do. Have at it. We could use a break for the moment.
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