...Tropical depression continuing westward with little change in strength...no immediate threat to land...
at 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Depression Six was located near latitude 11.4 north...longitude 39.1 west or about 1515 miles...2440 km...east of the Lesser Antilles.
The depression is moving toward the west near 17 mph...28 km/hr... and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours... and the depression could become a tropical storm later today or Thursday.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches. Repeating the 11 am EDT position...11.4 N... 39.1 W. Movement toward...west near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1008 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 PM EDT.
Forecaster BevenTropical Depression Six Discussion Number 3
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 25, 2004
Tropical Depression Six is looking a little ragged this morning. While still organized into bands...the associated convection has decreased significantly in depth and coverage since sunrise. The reason for this is not clear...although the system may be ingesting some of the dry air seen nearby in water vapor imagery. Satellite intensity estimates are 35 kt from SAB...30 kt from TAFB...and 25 kt from AFWA. The initial intensity remains 30 kt. The initial motion is now 275/15. The cyclone is currently south of a subtropical ridge. Large-scale models indicate that a mid/ upper-level level low currently seen in water vapor imagery just southeast of Nova Scotia will dive southeastward and weaken the ridge from 48-96 hr and then lift out to the northeast. If this verifies...it would allow the tropical depression to turn northwestward after 24-36 hr...and then possibly turning more westward by 120 hr as the ridge rebuilds to the north. The dynamical models generally agree with this scenario. However...the GFS has shifted its track considerably to the south and west of the GFDL...UKMET...and NOGAPS. The official forecast track also shifts to the left of the previous track...but not as far as the GFS. The new track is along the western edge of the other dynamical models in best agreement with the GFDL and the consensus models. Other than the current ragged appearance...conditions generally apepar favorable for the cyclone to intensify for the first 72-96 hr. The intensity forecast will call for slow strengthening for the first 48 hr or so in agreement with the current organization and trends...then call for faster development as the system nears hurricane strength. After 72-96 hr...if the cyclone tracks as far north as forecast...it may encounter westerly shear to the north of the upper-level ridge forecast to lie east-west along 18-19n. That would limit strengthening as indicated in the forecast. An alternate scenario would be if the cyclone stays south of the ridge axis...which would allow greater strengthening than currently forecast. Forecaster Beven
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