Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially over. 2018's runs June 1st-Nov 30th, 2018.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 67 (Nate) , Major: 85 (Maria) Florida - Any: 95 (Irma) Major: 95 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Frances at 11:00?
      Wed Aug 25 2004 10:39 AM

Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 3


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 25, 2004


...Tropical depression continuing westward with little change in
strength...no immediate threat to land...

at 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Depression Six was
located near latitude 11.4 north...longitude 39.1 west or about
1515 miles...2440 km...east of the Lesser Antilles.

The depression is moving toward the west near 17 mph...28 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...
and the depression could become a tropical storm later today or
Thursday.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches.
Repeating the 11 am EDT position...11.4 N... 39.1 W. Movement
toward...west near 17 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1008 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 PM EDT.

Forecaster BevenTropical Depression Six Discussion Number 3


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 25, 2004



Tropical Depression Six is looking a little ragged this morning.
While still organized into bands...the associated convection has
decreased significantly in depth and coverage since sunrise. The
reason for this is not clear...although the system may be ingesting
some of the dry air seen nearby in water vapor imagery. Satellite
intensity estimates are 35 kt from SAB...30 kt from TAFB...and 25
kt from AFWA. The initial intensity remains 30 kt.
The initial motion is now 275/15. The cyclone is currently south of
a subtropical ridge. Large-scale models indicate that a mid/
upper-level level low currently seen in water vapor imagery just
southeast of Nova Scotia will dive southeastward and weaken the
ridge from 48-96 hr and then lift out to the northeast. If this
verifies...it would allow the tropical depression to turn
northwestward after 24-36 hr...and then possibly turning more
westward by 120 hr as the ridge rebuilds to the north. The
dynamical models generally agree with this scenario. However...the
GFS has shifted its track considerably to the south and west of the
GFDL...UKMET...and NOGAPS. The official forecast track also shifts
to the left of the previous track...but not as far as the GFS. The
new track is along the western edge of the other dynamical models
in best agreement with the GFDL and the consensus models.
Other than the current ragged appearance...conditions generally
apepar favorable for the cyclone to intensify for the first 72-96
hr. The intensity forecast will call for slow strengthening for
the first 48 hr or so in agreement with the current organization
and trends...then call for faster development as the system nears
hurricane strength. After 72-96 hr...if the cyclone tracks as far
north as forecast...it may encounter westerly shear to the north of
the upper-level ridge forecast to lie east-west along 18-19n. That
would limit strengthening as indicated in the forecast. An
alternate scenario would be if the cyclone stays south of the ridge
axis...which would allow greater strengthening than currently
forecast.
Forecaster Beven

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 25/1500z 11.4n 39.1w 30 kt
12hr VT 26/0000z 11.8n 41.3w 35 kt
24hr VT 26/1200z 12.6n 43.7w 40 kt
36hr VT 27/0000z 13.5n 45.6w 45 kt
48hr VT 27/1200z 14.5n 47.2w 50 kt
72hr VT 28/1200z 16.5n 49.5w 65 kt
96hr VT 29/1200z 18.5n 52.0w 75 kt
120hr VT 30/1200z 20.5n 55.0w 75 kt


http://www.hardcoreweather.com

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* TD #6 Becomes Tropical Storm Frances Ed DunhamAdministrator Wed Aug 25 2004 10:39 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Strom Frances tornado00   Thu Aug 26 2004 02:52 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Strom Frances Keith234   Thu Aug 26 2004 02:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Strom Frances tornado00   Thu Aug 26 2004 03:17 PM
. * * Tropical Storm Frances seems to be getting organized Cocoa Beach   Thu Aug 26 2004 11:01 AM
. * * thoughts on 11am discussion bobbi   Thu Aug 26 2004 11:11 AM
. * * Frontal Boundary zacros   Thu Aug 26 2004 11:33 AM
. * * Re: Frontal Boundary Keith234   Thu Aug 26 2004 12:57 PM
. * * Re: Frontal Boundary LI Phil   Thu Aug 26 2004 01:22 PM
. * * Re: Frontal Boundary Keith234   Thu Aug 26 2004 02:33 PM
. * * Re: Frontal Boundary Ed in Va   Thu Aug 26 2004 02:51 PM
. * * Hurricane Frances James88   Thu Aug 26 2004 02:53 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances WeatherNLU   Thu Aug 26 2004 03:48 PM
. * * 20/60 line bobbi   Thu Aug 26 2004 03:59 PM
. * * Re: 20/60 line Ed in Va   Thu Aug 26 2004 04:04 PM
. * * Re: 20/60 line Clark   Thu Aug 26 2004 04:26 PM
. * * Re: 20/60 line rmbjoe1954   Thu Aug 26 2004 04:08 PM
. * * Information on models LI Phil   Thu Aug 26 2004 04:40 PM
. * * Re: Information on models rmbjoe1954   Thu Aug 26 2004 04:51 PM
. * * Re: 20/60 line Keith234   Thu Aug 26 2004 04:27 PM
. * * Re: HURRICANE FRANCES LONNY307   Thu Aug 26 2004 04:38 PM
. * * Hurricane frances Bruce   Thu Aug 26 2004 04:37 PM
. * * Re: 20/60 line Ed in Va   Thu Aug 26 2004 04:22 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances rmbjoe1954   Thu Aug 26 2004 03:53 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances Storm Cooper   Thu Aug 26 2004 03:12 PM
. * * talk about stair step motion movement... bobbi   Thu Aug 26 2004 03:17 PM
. * * Re: talk about stair step motion movement... Keith234   Thu Aug 26 2004 03:21 PM
. * * Re: talk about stair step motion movement... WeatherNLU   Thu Aug 26 2004 03:44 PM
. * * no... dont think so bobbi   Thu Aug 26 2004 03:58 PM
. * * Re: talk about stair step motion movement... SirCane   Thu Aug 26 2004 03:37 PM
. * * Re: Frontal Boundary Todd   Thu Aug 26 2004 01:40 PM
. * * Re: Frontal Boundary zacros   Thu Aug 26 2004 04:57 PM
. * * Re: Frontal Boundary DMFischer   Thu Aug 26 2004 05:22 PM
. * * Frances rmbjoe1954   Thu Aug 26 2004 05:55 PM
. * * NEW THREAD LI Phil   Thu Aug 26 2004 05:57 PM
. * * cat 5 possibilities with this one..... rickonboat   Thu Aug 26 2004 05:29 PM
. * * Re: cat 5 possibilities with this one..... Steve hirschb.   Thu Aug 26 2004 05:43 PM
. * * Carolinas system Rabbit   Thu Aug 26 2004 05:56 PM
. * * Charlotte Radar LI Phil   Thu Aug 26 2004 05:38 PM
. * * Um.. LI Phil   Thu Aug 26 2004 05:09 PM
. * * Re: Um.. Keith234   Thu Aug 26 2004 05:24 PM
. * * Re: Um.. redbird   Sun Aug 29 2004 05:42 PM
. * * Re: Um.. ticka1   Thu Aug 26 2004 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Frontal Boundary LI Phil   Thu Aug 26 2004 02:05 PM
. * * Re: Frontal Boundary Ed in Va   Thu Aug 26 2004 11:37 AM
. * * 11pm Clark   Wed Aug 25 2004 10:31 PM
. * * Re: 11pm WeatherNLU   Thu Aug 26 2004 12:35 AM
. * * Re: 11pm Matt033   Thu Aug 26 2004 01:21 AM
. * * good post Matt LoisCane   Thu Aug 26 2004 08:57 AM
. * * Re: good post Matt Hurric   Thu Aug 26 2004 09:34 AM
. * * Re: good post Matt Ed in Va   Thu Aug 26 2004 09:59 AM
. * * Re: good post Matt Larry   Thu Aug 26 2004 10:24 AM
. * * Re: good post Matt Keith234   Thu Aug 26 2004 10:31 AM
. * * Re: good post Matt scottsvb   Thu Aug 26 2004 10:37 AM
. * * Frances still a TS at 11:00 LI Phil   Thu Aug 26 2004 10:46 AM
. * * Re: Frances still a TS at 11:00 Clark   Thu Aug 26 2004 12:01 PM
. * * Some dry air ahead... LI Phil   Thu Aug 26 2004 12:26 PM
. * * for Phil especially and others bobbi   Thu Aug 26 2004 02:15 PM
. * * Re: Some dry air ahead... Keith234   Thu Aug 26 2004 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Frances still a TS at 11:00 EriktheFled   Thu Aug 26 2004 12:25 PM
. * * Re: good post Matt Keith234   Thu Aug 26 2004 10:44 AM
. * * Re: good post Matt Hardcore   Thu Aug 26 2004 10:28 AM
. * * Re: good post Matt bobbi   Thu Aug 26 2004 09:58 AM
. * * Re: 11pm James88   Thu Aug 26 2004 03:26 AM
. * * Interesting WXMAN RICHIE   Thu Aug 26 2004 05:23 AM
. * * Re: Interesting Keith234   Thu Aug 26 2004 08:18 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms in Eastern Atlantic rcs_satbch   Wed Aug 25 2004 06:28 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms in Eastern Atlantic Rabbit   Wed Aug 25 2004 07:43 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms in Eastern Atlantic Keith234   Wed Aug 25 2004 07:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms in Eastern Atlantic LI Phil   Wed Aug 25 2004 09:53 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms in Eastern Atlantic Anon   Thu Aug 26 2004 09:22 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms in Eastern Atlantic Keith234   Wed Aug 25 2004 10:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms in Eastern Atlantic LoisCane   Wed Aug 25 2004 10:09 PM
. * * frances issues, etc HanKFranK   Wed Aug 25 2004 10:51 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms in Eastern Atlantic Keith234   Wed Aug 25 2004 07:40 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms in Eastern Atlantic Hurric   Wed Aug 25 2004 06:53 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms in Eastern Atlantic Anonymous   Wed Aug 25 2004 08:03 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms in Eastern Atlantic bobbi   Wed Aug 25 2004 08:32 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms in Eastern Atlantic Keith234   Wed Aug 25 2004 08:46 AM
. * * Not that impressive at the moment Frank P   Wed Aug 25 2004 09:37 AM
. * * Re: Not that impressive at the moment Cycloneye   Wed Aug 25 2004 09:45 AM
. * * Re: Not that impressive at the moment joepub1   Wed Aug 25 2004 10:22 AM
. * * JoePub! LI Phil   Wed Aug 25 2004 10:29 AM
. * * Re: JoePub! Anonymous   Wed Aug 25 2004 10:38 AM
. * * Frances at 11:00? LI Phil   Wed Aug 25 2004 10:20 AM
. * * Re: Frances at 11:00? joepub1   Wed Aug 25 2004 10:37 AM
. * * Re: Frances at 11:00? Anonymous   Wed Aug 25 2004 10:38 AM
. * * Re: Frances at 11:00? Anonymous   Wed Aug 25 2004 10:39 AM
. * * Re: Frances at 11:00? joepub1   Wed Aug 25 2004 10:44 AM
. * * Re: Frances at 11:00? Fred   Wed Aug 25 2004 01:59 PM
. * * Re: Frances at 11:00? Anonymous   Wed Aug 25 2004 10:50 AM
. * * Re: Frances at 11:00? Anonymous   Wed Aug 25 2004 10:53 AM
. * * Re: Frances at 11:00? caneman   Wed Aug 25 2004 11:37 AM
. * * Spin off Fla LI Phil   Wed Aug 25 2004 11:49 AM
. * * Re: Spin off Fla rcs_satbch   Wed Aug 25 2004 06:22 PM
. * * Re: Spin off Fla Hurric   Wed Aug 25 2004 01:39 PM
. * * Re: Spin off Fla alan   Wed Aug 25 2004 02:05 PM
. * * Re: Spin off Fla Anonymous   Wed Aug 25 2004 02:39 PM
. * * Re: Spin off Fla ticka1   Wed Aug 25 2004 02:41 PM
. * * Re: Spin off Fla Steve   Wed Aug 25 2004 03:15 PM
. * * Frances at 5pm no doubt about it Hardcore   Wed Aug 25 2004 03:32 PM
. * * Re: Frances at 5pm no doubt about it Anonymous   Wed Aug 25 2004 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Frances at 5pm no doubt about it matt0033   Wed Aug 25 2004 05:11 PM
. * * More left each run LoisCane   Wed Aug 25 2004 06:17 PM
. * * ominous words in that discussion LoisCane   Wed Aug 25 2004 06:21 PM
. * * Re: Frances at 5pm no doubt about it *DELETED* Anonymous   Wed Aug 25 2004 05:01 PM
. * * Re: Frances at 5pm no doubt about it LONNY307   Wed Aug 25 2004 05:13 PM
. * * TWO THINGS LI Phil   Wed Aug 25 2004 05:09 PM
. * * Re: TWO THINGS caneman   Wed Aug 25 2004 05:14 PM
. * * Re: TWO THINGS HanKFranK   Wed Aug 25 2004 05:50 PM
. * * Re: TWO THINGS caneman   Thu Aug 26 2004 05:36 AM
. * * Re: TWO THINGS Steve hirschb.   Wed Aug 25 2004 05:47 PM
. * * Re: Frances at 5pm no doubt about it Anonymous   Wed Aug 25 2004 04:34 PM
. * * Re: Frances LONNY307   Wed Aug 25 2004 04:54 PM
. * * JB Midday LI Phil   Wed Aug 25 2004 03:29 PM
. * * None of the Bouys are reporting Data Cocoa Beach   Wed Aug 25 2004 12:36 PM
. * * Re: None of the Bouys are reporting Data troy   Wed Aug 25 2004 12:50 PM
. * * TD6 Rabbit   Wed Aug 25 2004 12:11 PM
. * * TD6? rmbjoe1954   Wed Aug 25 2004 12:19 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms in Eastern Atlantic 1234   Wed Aug 25 2004 01:00 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms in Eastern Atlantic Rabbit   Wed Aug 25 2004 04:00 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms in Eastern Atlantic LadyStorm   Wed Aug 25 2004 05:37 AM

Extra information
0 registered and 99 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Thread views: 39228

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center