quick note on td2/bonnie: td 6/7 last year is an example of a similar occurrence.. not as much lag time between closed systems this time, nor did the system become quite as indistinct.. but you may have noticed the system we're currently on, frances.. was td 6. very simple logic follows.. the nhc has operationally regarded bonnie as a td 2 reincarnation. frances is tending a bit left of my previous thought track. i've been on to this no-quick-out-recurvature line for a few days now, finally there's enough model support that the official line is just that.. but of course there's always a chance frances can still find some bizarre way to recurve. but i'm not going with that. speed up the official, have a more pronounced stair step and an intensity cough in the track for the weekend.. and you have my philosophy.. frances will turn nw and slow for a time in response to the ridge weakness, miss the islands, negotiate some shear, and then turn left and probably accelerate westward next week. i keep hearing references to andrew.. can only blink at that. i'm thinking more of a floyd situation, because i don't expect there to be enough ridge near the east coast late next week for frances to come barreling across florida. always safer to bet on wilmington or morehead city north carolina.. something like that. really no idea at this point, because gfs is what i'm going by and i know gfs takes a few days to feel out the pattern and get the wavelengths/speed/amplitudes close enough to make educated guesses on. right now it's still a shot in the dark.. at a target that is for now distant. timetable for arrival, if it makes it across.. is around saturday the 4th. this would fairly well teleconnect with typhoon chaba smacking japan in a couple days time. closer in to home, getting a better feel for the disturbance off the southeast coast. it isn't in a rush to develop, but won't be going much of anywhere until the weekend.. time is still on it's side. low level convergence is too weak to jam a low together, it's going to live or die on whether a convective flare can get an embryonic center started. there is decent ridging aloft.. mid/upper low peeling away into the gulf is enhancing it for now. disturbed weather also trying to focus away east near bermuda.. but i'm going to stick with the area east of jacksonville, near 80w. give or take 50 miles i think that's the place. new wave skipping merrily off the african coast, and gfs is showing some development by early next week on it.. so will stay appraised. minor feature.. weak trough near 26/52 sliding westward... nearing the mid oceanic trough. a convective burst could modify this small feature in a heartbeat.. but very low potential. that's the line for now. frances is getting retired, one way or another... those folks may have jinxed us. HF 0251z26august
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