Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Nothing currently in the Atlantic Basin, for Late October the West Caribbean is usually where to monitor.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 13 (Nate) , Major: 31 (Maria) Florida - Any: 40 (Irma) Major: 40 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
frances issues, etc
      Wed Aug 25 2004 10:51 PM

quick note on td2/bonnie: td 6/7 last year is an example of a similar occurrence.. not as much lag time between closed systems this time, nor did the system become quite as indistinct.. but you may have noticed the system we're currently on, frances.. was td 6. very simple logic follows.. the nhc has operationally regarded bonnie as a td 2 reincarnation.
frances is tending a bit left of my previous thought track. i've been on to this no-quick-out-recurvature line for a few days now, finally there's enough model support that the official line is just that.. but of course there's always a chance frances can still find some bizarre way to recurve.
but i'm not going with that. speed up the official, have a more pronounced stair step and an intensity cough in the track for the weekend.. and you have my philosophy.. frances will turn nw and slow for a time in response to the ridge weakness, miss the islands, negotiate some shear, and then turn left and probably accelerate westward next week. i keep hearing references to andrew.. can only blink at that. i'm thinking more of a floyd situation, because i don't expect there to be enough ridge near the east coast late next week for frances to come barreling across florida. always safer to bet on wilmington or morehead city north carolina.. something like that. really no idea at this point, because gfs is what i'm going by and i know gfs takes a few days to feel out the pattern and get the wavelengths/speed/amplitudes close enough to make educated guesses on. right now it's still a shot in the dark.. at a target that is for now distant. timetable for arrival, if it makes it across.. is around saturday the 4th. this would fairly well teleconnect with typhoon chaba smacking japan in a couple days time.
closer in to home, getting a better feel for the disturbance off the southeast coast. it isn't in a rush to develop, but won't be going much of anywhere until the weekend.. time is still on it's side. low level convergence is too weak to jam a low together, it's going to live or die on whether a convective flare can get an embryonic center started. there is decent ridging aloft.. mid/upper low peeling away into the gulf is enhancing it for now. disturbed weather also trying to focus away east near bermuda.. but i'm going to stick with the area east of jacksonville, near 80w. give or take 50 miles i think that's the place.
new wave skipping merrily off the african coast, and gfs is showing some development by early next week on it.. so will stay appraised.
minor feature.. weak trough near 26/52 sliding westward... nearing the mid oceanic trough. a convective burst could modify this small feature in a heartbeat.. but very low potential.
that's the line for now. frances is getting retired, one way or another... those folks may have jinxed us.
HF 0251z26august

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* TD #6 Becomes Tropical Storm Frances Ed DunhamAdministrator Wed Aug 25 2004 10:51 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Strom Frances tornado00   Thu Aug 26 2004 02:52 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Strom Frances Keith234   Thu Aug 26 2004 02:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Strom Frances tornado00   Thu Aug 26 2004 03:17 PM
. * * Tropical Storm Frances seems to be getting organized Cocoa Beach   Thu Aug 26 2004 11:01 AM
. * * thoughts on 11am discussion bobbi   Thu Aug 26 2004 11:11 AM
. * * Frontal Boundary zacros   Thu Aug 26 2004 11:33 AM
. * * Re: Frontal Boundary Keith234   Thu Aug 26 2004 12:57 PM
. * * Re: Frontal Boundary LI Phil   Thu Aug 26 2004 01:22 PM
. * * Re: Frontal Boundary Keith234   Thu Aug 26 2004 02:33 PM
. * * Re: Frontal Boundary Ed in Va   Thu Aug 26 2004 02:51 PM
. * * Hurricane Frances James88   Thu Aug 26 2004 02:53 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances WeatherNLU   Thu Aug 26 2004 03:48 PM
. * * 20/60 line bobbi   Thu Aug 26 2004 03:59 PM
. * * Re: 20/60 line Ed in Va   Thu Aug 26 2004 04:04 PM
. * * Re: 20/60 line Clark   Thu Aug 26 2004 04:26 PM
. * * Re: 20/60 line rmbjoe1954   Thu Aug 26 2004 04:08 PM
. * * Information on models LI Phil   Thu Aug 26 2004 04:40 PM
. * * Re: Information on models rmbjoe1954   Thu Aug 26 2004 04:51 PM
. * * Re: 20/60 line Keith234   Thu Aug 26 2004 04:27 PM
. * * Re: HURRICANE FRANCES LONNY307   Thu Aug 26 2004 04:38 PM
. * * Hurricane frances Bruce   Thu Aug 26 2004 04:37 PM
. * * Re: 20/60 line Ed in Va   Thu Aug 26 2004 04:22 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances rmbjoe1954   Thu Aug 26 2004 03:53 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances Storm Cooper   Thu Aug 26 2004 03:12 PM
. * * talk about stair step motion movement... bobbi   Thu Aug 26 2004 03:17 PM
. * * Re: talk about stair step motion movement... Keith234   Thu Aug 26 2004 03:21 PM
. * * Re: talk about stair step motion movement... WeatherNLU   Thu Aug 26 2004 03:44 PM
. * * no... dont think so bobbi   Thu Aug 26 2004 03:58 PM
. * * Re: talk about stair step motion movement... SirCane   Thu Aug 26 2004 03:37 PM
. * * Re: Frontal Boundary Todd   Thu Aug 26 2004 01:40 PM
. * * Re: Frontal Boundary zacros   Thu Aug 26 2004 04:57 PM
. * * Re: Frontal Boundary DMFischer   Thu Aug 26 2004 05:22 PM
. * * Frances rmbjoe1954   Thu Aug 26 2004 05:55 PM
. * * NEW THREAD LI Phil   Thu Aug 26 2004 05:57 PM
. * * cat 5 possibilities with this one..... rickonboat   Thu Aug 26 2004 05:29 PM
. * * Re: cat 5 possibilities with this one..... Steve hirschb.   Thu Aug 26 2004 05:43 PM
. * * Carolinas system Rabbit   Thu Aug 26 2004 05:56 PM
. * * Charlotte Radar LI Phil   Thu Aug 26 2004 05:38 PM
. * * Um.. LI Phil   Thu Aug 26 2004 05:09 PM
. * * Re: Um.. Keith234   Thu Aug 26 2004 05:24 PM
. * * Re: Um.. redbird   Sun Aug 29 2004 05:42 PM
. * * Re: Um.. ticka1   Thu Aug 26 2004 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Frontal Boundary LI Phil   Thu Aug 26 2004 02:05 PM
. * * Re: Frontal Boundary Ed in Va   Thu Aug 26 2004 11:37 AM
. * * 11pm Clark   Wed Aug 25 2004 10:31 PM
. * * Re: 11pm WeatherNLU   Thu Aug 26 2004 12:35 AM
. * * Re: 11pm Matt033   Thu Aug 26 2004 01:21 AM
. * * good post Matt LoisCane   Thu Aug 26 2004 08:57 AM
. * * Re: good post Matt Hurric   Thu Aug 26 2004 09:34 AM
. * * Re: good post Matt Ed in Va   Thu Aug 26 2004 09:59 AM
. * * Re: good post Matt Larry   Thu Aug 26 2004 10:24 AM
. * * Re: good post Matt Keith234   Thu Aug 26 2004 10:31 AM
. * * Re: good post Matt scottsvb   Thu Aug 26 2004 10:37 AM
. * * Frances still a TS at 11:00 LI Phil   Thu Aug 26 2004 10:46 AM
. * * Re: Frances still a TS at 11:00 Clark   Thu Aug 26 2004 12:01 PM
. * * Some dry air ahead... LI Phil   Thu Aug 26 2004 12:26 PM
. * * for Phil especially and others bobbi   Thu Aug 26 2004 02:15 PM
. * * Re: Some dry air ahead... Keith234   Thu Aug 26 2004 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Frances still a TS at 11:00 EriktheFled   Thu Aug 26 2004 12:25 PM
. * * Re: good post Matt Keith234   Thu Aug 26 2004 10:44 AM
. * * Re: good post Matt Hardcore   Thu Aug 26 2004 10:28 AM
. * * Re: good post Matt bobbi   Thu Aug 26 2004 09:58 AM
. * * Re: 11pm James88   Thu Aug 26 2004 03:26 AM
. * * Interesting WXMAN RICHIE   Thu Aug 26 2004 05:23 AM
. * * Re: Interesting Keith234   Thu Aug 26 2004 08:18 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms in Eastern Atlantic rcs_satbch   Wed Aug 25 2004 06:28 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms in Eastern Atlantic Rabbit   Wed Aug 25 2004 07:43 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms in Eastern Atlantic Keith234   Wed Aug 25 2004 07:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms in Eastern Atlantic LI Phil   Wed Aug 25 2004 09:53 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms in Eastern Atlantic Anon   Thu Aug 26 2004 09:22 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms in Eastern Atlantic Keith234   Wed Aug 25 2004 10:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms in Eastern Atlantic LoisCane   Wed Aug 25 2004 10:09 PM
. * * frances issues, etc HanKFranK   Wed Aug 25 2004 10:51 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms in Eastern Atlantic Keith234   Wed Aug 25 2004 07:40 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms in Eastern Atlantic Hurric   Wed Aug 25 2004 06:53 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms in Eastern Atlantic Anonymous   Wed Aug 25 2004 08:03 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms in Eastern Atlantic bobbi   Wed Aug 25 2004 08:32 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms in Eastern Atlantic Keith234   Wed Aug 25 2004 08:46 AM
. * * Not that impressive at the moment Frank P   Wed Aug 25 2004 09:37 AM
. * * Re: Not that impressive at the moment Cycloneye   Wed Aug 25 2004 09:45 AM
. * * Re: Not that impressive at the moment joepub1   Wed Aug 25 2004 10:22 AM
. * * JoePub! LI Phil   Wed Aug 25 2004 10:29 AM
. * * Re: JoePub! Anonymous   Wed Aug 25 2004 10:38 AM
. * * Frances at 11:00? LI Phil   Wed Aug 25 2004 10:20 AM
. * * Re: Frances at 11:00? joepub1   Wed Aug 25 2004 10:37 AM
. * * Re: Frances at 11:00? Anonymous   Wed Aug 25 2004 10:38 AM
. * * Re: Frances at 11:00? Anonymous   Wed Aug 25 2004 10:39 AM
. * * Re: Frances at 11:00? joepub1   Wed Aug 25 2004 10:44 AM
. * * Re: Frances at 11:00? Fred   Wed Aug 25 2004 01:59 PM
. * * Re: Frances at 11:00? Anonymous   Wed Aug 25 2004 10:50 AM
. * * Re: Frances at 11:00? Anonymous   Wed Aug 25 2004 10:53 AM
. * * Re: Frances at 11:00? caneman   Wed Aug 25 2004 11:37 AM
. * * Spin off Fla LI Phil   Wed Aug 25 2004 11:49 AM
. * * Re: Spin off Fla rcs_satbch   Wed Aug 25 2004 06:22 PM
. * * Re: Spin off Fla Hurric   Wed Aug 25 2004 01:39 PM
. * * Re: Spin off Fla alan   Wed Aug 25 2004 02:05 PM
. * * Re: Spin off Fla Anonymous   Wed Aug 25 2004 02:39 PM
. * * Re: Spin off Fla ticka1   Wed Aug 25 2004 02:41 PM
. * * Re: Spin off Fla Steve   Wed Aug 25 2004 03:15 PM
. * * Frances at 5pm no doubt about it Hardcore   Wed Aug 25 2004 03:32 PM
. * * Re: Frances at 5pm no doubt about it Anonymous   Wed Aug 25 2004 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Frances at 5pm no doubt about it matt0033   Wed Aug 25 2004 05:11 PM
. * * More left each run LoisCane   Wed Aug 25 2004 06:17 PM
. * * ominous words in that discussion LoisCane   Wed Aug 25 2004 06:21 PM
. * * Re: Frances at 5pm no doubt about it *DELETED* Anonymous   Wed Aug 25 2004 05:01 PM
. * * Re: Frances at 5pm no doubt about it LONNY307   Wed Aug 25 2004 05:13 PM
. * * TWO THINGS LI Phil   Wed Aug 25 2004 05:09 PM
. * * Re: TWO THINGS caneman   Wed Aug 25 2004 05:14 PM
. * * Re: TWO THINGS HanKFranK   Wed Aug 25 2004 05:50 PM
. * * Re: TWO THINGS caneman   Thu Aug 26 2004 05:36 AM
. * * Re: TWO THINGS Steve hirschb.   Wed Aug 25 2004 05:47 PM
. * * Re: Frances at 5pm no doubt about it Anonymous   Wed Aug 25 2004 04:34 PM
. * * Re: Frances LONNY307   Wed Aug 25 2004 04:54 PM
. * * JB Midday LI Phil   Wed Aug 25 2004 03:29 PM
. * * None of the Bouys are reporting Data Cocoa Beach   Wed Aug 25 2004 12:36 PM
. * * Re: None of the Bouys are reporting Data troy   Wed Aug 25 2004 12:50 PM
. * * TD6 Rabbit   Wed Aug 25 2004 12:11 PM
. * * TD6? rmbjoe1954   Wed Aug 25 2004 12:19 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms in Eastern Atlantic 1234   Wed Aug 25 2004 01:00 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms in Eastern Atlantic Rabbit   Wed Aug 25 2004 04:00 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms in Eastern Atlantic LadyStorm   Wed Aug 25 2004 05:37 AM

Extra information
0 registered and 39 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Thread views: 38613

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center