TS Frances remains at this category for the 11:00 update. A lot of good posts, so I'll be brief. Frances has excellent satellite signature, with pretty strong convection...and an eye...which would seem to put her at very close to Hurricane strength...would think that she will be at 5:00. She's over very warm water and in a low-shear environment, so it's not hard to argue that further strengthening will occur.
Way way to early to tell where she'll go, but this has the classic CV Hattaras look to it. All depends upon how deep and how strong the trof gets, and then whether she can duck under the developing ridge further west. This could be a huge headache for the entire East Coast late next week into the holiday weekend. I would not discount this becoming a major cane as it takes aim at the coast...
-------------------- 2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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